What gives Gane the edge to me is the fact that he is so protected where as Colby isn't. I mean they fed him to Buckley for crying out loud where as the UFC is trying their hardest to keep Gane away from Blaydes and Almeida and keep him a contender until they can make Gane vs Tom..
Yeah HW is so thin that the UFC can't afford to have Blaydes knock off Gane since he is one of the only HWs Tom hasn't already run thru. They did put him in there with Volkov which was a risk and he should have lost IMO.
The top 5 contenders at HW has
Gane last 3: loss to Jones, win vs Spivak, win vs Volkov
Volkov last 5: since losing to Tom he had a 4 fight streak ended by loss to Gane so should be a 5 fight streak against Rozenstruik, Romanov, Tuiavasa, Pav, L vs Gane.
Pav last 3: beat Rozenstruik, lost to Volkov, lost to Tom
Blaydes last 3: lost last fight to Aspinal, beat Almedia, lost to Pav
Almeida last 3: 2 fight win streak last loss to Blaydes
If they get Jon vs Aspinall done or they move on Tom will need at least a couple of contenders to run through. Can't afford for Gane to be knocked off and Gane to knock off Almeida. They are the 2 most reasonable challengers agaisnt Tom. Volkov with his win streak can be sold with a win and then the idea he was robbed but his loss to Tom was so definitive it is hard.
HW has no other up and coming talents. Maybe an Alex Pereira fight but that is silly IMO.