I think Cotto's proven he can beat speed without speed.
Really? When? Mosley stood right in front of him for much of their fight and wasn't particularly elusive. Zab was controlling their fight until he stopped fighting. Mallignaggi? I guess, though I think we'd both agree that Malignaggi is no Mayweather.
Cotto has impressed me very much this year and though I may have said differentt in the past, hes no threat to Floyd.
You know elbow, aside from the obvious...if Cotto has ONE major detraction going into the fight I honestly believe it's Evangelista. I'm not sure that guy's head is on straight anymore, and I'm not sure that as a trainer he can deal with the pressures of a fight this big to allow Miguel to make the necessary adjustments.
I think Cotto can win, by the game-plan you said, and I think he almost put that plan into perfect effect against Zab (resolving he was GOING to get hit was a good move because he appeared ready for it)...but I agree he needs to mature a bit more to have a better chance. If Floyd really takes a year off and then entertains to fight Cotto, I think that could work out HUGELY in Miguel's favor.
I STRONGLY disagree Zab was "controlling" anything before he stopped fighting. He landed two or three good counters over about 4 rounds. And he stopped fighting because he was getting his ass kicked.
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Paul has speed, what he lacks is Mayweather's power. Floyd hits harder than people think as was demonstrated by his near decapitation of Hatton with a punch. Sure Ricky jumped into it, but he also didn't recover well at all. But for all Paul's speed if you watch that fight, Cotto used a lunging, spearing power-jab to cancel that speed. Boxing fundamentals 101: A good hard jab neutralizes hand-speed.
Floyd's speed won't be what does away with Cotto if it happens. It'll be his combination of speed and power.
Cotto has impressed me very much this year and though I may have said differentt in the past, hes no threat to Floyd.
Also I disagree with you saying he stopped fighting because he got his ass kicked, IMO, he got his ass kicked because he stopped fighting.