Tony if he's in a good mental state. But I wouldn't put money on either fighter given recent reports of Ferguson. We've seen Mayhem and other fighters self-destruct in and out of the cage when mental issues get the best of them.
But any version of Tony we've seen in the last few years (including Pettis fight) eventually wears down and breaks Cerrone. There's a reason Ferguson has never been finished while Cowboy has been finished 6 times in the past. If you think Cerrone is nearly unbeatable, go back and watch his fights vs Nate, Pettis, Masvidal, Till, etc.