I'm going with Cerrone. Just have a gut feeling.
Tony's pressure will be a problem, especially given how long he is. And Tony's pace wins him a lot of fights.
That said, Tony is extremely easy to hit, can be hurt, has mediocre footwork, and is terrible and cutting off the cage. Cerrone is great when he can get his combos off, has developed a pretty strong left hand (both hooks and jabs), and is great and punishing retreats with kicks. The fact that Cerrone also has great intercepting knees and mixes in high kicks fluidly helps a ton. Tony drops his hands all the time and really doesn't move that well.
I think Cerrone's wrestling is underrated here too. Tony's TDD isn't where you'd expect a wrestler's to typically be and he attacks in a straight line. Cerrone has landed his double on a lot of fighters at both LW and WW and his favourite set up for it lately is a level change when a fighter comes straight at him. That does a lot for mitigating Tony's pressure.
I think Cerrone catches him and finishes him. You can only block with your chin for so long before someone lights you up.