Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[Lead]

Jeb Bush’s Team Plots Vast Effort to Win Florida

The political apparatus surrounding former Gov. Jeb Bush, determined to avoid embarrassment in a state that has vexed his party and family in national elections, is plotting a vast operation aimed at turning Florida into a bulwark for his presidential campaign, according to dozens of interviews.

The confidential plan, code-named “Homeland Security,” seeks to try to neutralize two potentially grave but homegrown threats to Mr. Bush’s long-anticipated run for president: the likely challenge from a charismatic young Republican senator from Miami, Marco Rubio, who is expected to seek the Republican nomination himself, and a demographic drift within Florida that could doom Mr. Bush there in a fall campaign against a Democrat.

Scott signs bill setting Florida 2016 presidential primary on March 15

It’s official. Florida’s presidential primary in 2016 will be held on March 15, guaranteeing the winner of the Republican primary all of Florida’s sizable number of delegates.

Gov. Rick Scott on Thursday signed a House bill (HB 7035) that moves the Florida presidential primary to the third Tuesday in March. Both legislative chambers had passed the bill on unanimous votes, the Senate on Wednesday and the House last week.

After two presidential cycles where Florida’s Republican leaders pushed the state into January primaries — and were slapped with penalties by national party leaders as a result – lawmakers now see a later date as carrying more weight.

 

[Lead]

For 2016 Run, Scott Walker Washes ‘Wiscahnsin’ Out of His Mouth

Out on the presidential campaign trail, Gov. Scott Walker has left “Wiscahnsin” back home in Wisconsin. He now wants to strengthen the economy, not the “ecahnahmy.” And while he once had the “ahnor” of meeting fellow Republicans, he told one group here this week that he simply enjoyed “talkin’ with y’all.”

The classic Upper Midwest accent — nasal and full of flat a’s — is one of several Walker trademarks to have fallen away this month after an intense period of strategizing and coaching designed to help Mr. Walker capitalize on his popularity in early polls and show that he is not some provincial politician out of his depth.

 

[Lead]

How Ted Cruz Will Pull the GOP Presidential Primary Right

Sen. Ted Cruz will reportedly launch his 2016 presidential campaign during a speech Monday, the Houston Chronicle wrote Saturday night. The Texas Republican has been laying the groundwork for a run for months

 

[Lead]

Jeb's Talk Radio Problem

He

 

[Gandhi]

Jeb gets no credit for being a nutcase over schiavo

 

[Ayin]

Jeb gets no credit for being a nutcase over schiavo

I remember following that whole thing unfold and listening to all of the doctors being on one side, and the other side seeming to be people speaking in absentia for Jesus, and being confounded. And then, from memory, the autopsy showing that the Doctors had been completely right, her brain had nearly atrophied, weighing only a fraction of what it should have.

And wasn't there nearly a confrontation between the local police and the National Guard over this? All because some people wouldn't listen to science because 'Jesus'.

-Edit-

Also, from the small amount I've read so far, if anything it seems Jeb catches a fair amount of flak for giving up TOO EASILY in that situation. You would think after the autopsy there would have been ABSOLUTELY no reason for people to continue to hold their (proveably wrong) position, and yet, it seems that the actual facts had no bearing on the beliefs of many.

 

[Lead]

I remember following that whole thing unfold and listening to all of the doctors being on one side, and the other side seeming to be people speaking in absentia for Jesus, and being confounded. And then, from memory, the autopsy showing that the Doctors had been completely right, her brain had nearly atrophied, weighing only a fraction of what it should have.

And wasn't there nearly a confrontation between the local police and the National Guard over this? All because some people wouldn't listen to science because 'Jesus'.

-Edit-

Also, from the small amount I've read so far, if anything it seems Jeb catches a fair amount of flak for giving up TOO EASILY in that situation. You would think after the autopsy there would have been ABSOLUTELY no reason for people to continue to hold their (proveably wrong) position, and yet, it seems that the actual facts had no bearing on the beliefs of many.

Thought I don't really side with the Shiavo side, you have to admit there were far more angles than "science, the end." The fact was the husband wanted to take her off support and the parents didn't. This became more a legal issue over custody and the right to keep a damaged family member alive.

End of life care is an issue that I think both parties like to sweep under the rug. It's where the majority of healthcare costs come from and many times its to keep people alive from a few days to weeks. It stresses the hard question of putting a value on a specific life and having to make a call. I can understand why people would get very emotional with that. Science may say she was brain dead but it also would say she is still living as well.

 

[Ayin]

Thought I don't really side with the Shiavo side, you have to admit there were far more angles than "science, the end." The fact was the husband wanted to take her off support and the parents didn't. This became more a legal issue over custody and the right to keep a damaged family member alive.

End of life care is an issue that I think both parties like to sweep under the rug. It's where the majority of healthcare costs come from and many times its to keep people alive from a few days to weeks. It stresses the hard question of putting a value on a specific life and having to make a call. I can understand why people would get very emotional with that. Science may say she was brain dead but it also would say she is still living as well.

Her husband argued (along with Doctors) that she was brain dead, she was never waking up or coming out of it, and that he wanted to let her body die.

Her parents argued that she could get better (she couldn't), she might wake up (she wouldn't) and, I think I remember them saying, that they'd even seen signs she could understand them while they visited her (she didn't).

So you had one side, completely supported by evidence (and who was INARGUABLY CORRECT as shown afterwards) supporting the husband, and you had who supporting the parents and telling them these lies? The same people who STILL disagree with what happened. Because they're crazy.

 

[Lead]

Her husband argued (along with Doctors) that she was brain dead, she was never waking up or coming out of it, and that he wanted to let her body die.

Her parents argued that she could get better (she couldn't), she might wake up (she wouldn't) and, I think I remember them saying, that they'd even seen signs she could understand them while they visited her (she didn't).

So you had one side, completely supported by evidence (and who was INARGUABLY CORRECT as shown afterwards) supporting the husband, and you had who supporting the parents and telling them these lies? The same people who STILL disagree with what happened. Because they're crazy.

The point was should Shivao be put down if her parents wanted to continue being her caregiver. If the entire family agreed and it was simply the state coming in saying no, don't do this, it would be far easier but that wasn't the case.

 

[Lead]

You can watch Ted Cruz announce on Liberty Univeristy through Bloomberg's front page

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/

 

[Lead]

Florida

 

[ShoelessRye]

^Rubio said he'd run for one or the other right? He could run for both up until the March 15th 2016 Florida primary, but IIRC he said if he runs for President that he will not run for re-election to the Senate, but go all-in on Presidency aspirations. He seems to be leaning heavily to running for President, but it will be tough to give up the almost sure Senate gig, though I believe Bill Nelson's seat is up in 2018 mid-terms so he could set up Rubio vs Nelson in an epic battle royale of a election.

If Rubio chooses to run for President - does he re-sign from his Senate seat? Allowing Governor Skeletor to appoint somebody to give them a leg up come 2016?

Murphy is probably the best candidate Florida Dems could have hoped for. He seems to have a clear path right now as well, though crackpot Alan Grayson could still run and is able to self fund so he could join at a much later date. Murphy in a Presidential year against a non-incumbent is probably even money - especially if GOP has a spirited primary that races to the far right. Of course this seat is probably safe GOP if Jeb or Rubio is the Presidential candidate as their Florida coattails would simply be too long.

 

[Lead]

Ted Cruz Has a Surprising Weak Spot in the Money Race

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who said Monday he is running for president, must raise at least $30 million, his advisers say, to be competitive in a sprawling Republican primary field that will be financially dominated by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Cruz hopes to raise as much as $50 million, still half what Bush's team set as a goal for early 2015 but also potentially more than any other GOP contender.

How he gets there will come down to balancing two kinds of donors, his advisers argue: those who can raise tens of thousands of dollars from friends and those who regularly chip in a few bucks via online donations.

Cruz is already showing strength with large donors, his advisers say, with a packed guest list for his kickoff fundraiser March 31 in Houston. Each of the 29 listed co-hosts has pledged to raise at least $50,000, giving him $1.5 million right out of the gate.

 

[Makani]

Her husband argued (along with Doctors) that she was brain dead, she was never waking up or coming out of it, and that he wanted to let her body die.

Her parents argued that she could get better (she couldn't), she might wake up (she wouldn't) and, I think I remember them saying, that they'd even seen signs she could understand them while they visited her (she didn't).

So you had one side, completely supported by evidence (and who was INARGUABLY CORRECT as shown afterwards) supporting the husband, and you had who supporting the parents and telling them these lies? The same people who STILL disagree with what happened. Because they're crazy.

They made a whole video of every time her movements had any remote correlation with outside stimuli. Hundreds of hours edited down. Majority Leader Bill Frist, a doctor, stood on the Senate floor and validated it by saying "she does respond." Man, I hate even talking about it. What a weird, dark time.

Ted Cruz Has a Surprising Weak Spot in the Money Race

I can kind of get Cruz having an aw-shucks charisma, but I find him almost creepy. Don't think he'll play well with the small donors, he'd better kiss a lot of corporate tail.

 

[Lead]

^Rubio said he'd run for one or the other right? He could run for both up until the March 15th 2016 Florida primary, but IIRC he said if he runs for President that he will not run for re-election to the Senate, but go all-in on Presidency aspirations. He seems to be leaning heavily to running for President, but it will be tough to give up the almost sure Senate gig, though I believe Bill Nelson's seat is up in 2018 mid-terms so he could set up Rubio vs Nelson in an epic battle royale of a election.

If Rubio chooses to run for President - does he re-sign from his Senate seat? Allowing Governor Skeletor to appoint somebody to give them a leg up come 2016?

Murphy is probably the best candidate Florida Dems could have hoped for. He seems to have a clear path right now as well, though crackpot Alan Grayson could still run and is able to self fund so he could join at a much later date. Murphy in a Presidential year against a non-incumbent is probably even money - especially if GOP has a spirited primary that races to the far right. Of course this seat is probably safe GOP if Jeb or Rubio is the Presidential candidate as their Florida coattails would simply be too long.

I think he has plenty of time to see if his campaign caughts fire or fizzles. He can participate in debates and watch polls before the end of 2014. He even can participate in January's primaries and make a decision by then. I'm sure a lot of guys want Rubio in the Florida primary to take from Bush so that continue to open the idea that this guy is going to be on the ticket regardless if he wins the nominee.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Will be interesting to see if Cruz is even invited to the debates. He'll poll in the low to mid single digits at best and most of the establishment GOP hate his guts. He's a master debator, but only in a debate comp situation, and as we all know Presidential debates are not that, but mostly the most creative way candidates can answer any question posed with a canned stump speech answer.

 

[Lead]

They made a whole video of every time her movements had any remote correlation with outside stimuli. Hundreds of hours edited down. Majority Leader Bill Frist, a doctor, stood on the Senate floor and validated it by saying "she does respond." Man, I hate even talking about it. What a weird, dark time.



I can kind of get Cruz having an aw-shucks charisma, but I find him almost creepy. Don't think he'll play well with the small donors, he'd better kiss a lot of corporate tail.

He is competing with Caron's votes so I think he can easily win that niche. Look up the guys record. He went to Princeton and Harvard, was part of the Harvard Review, and has impressive debate credentials. He was involved in creating a legal team for the 2000 recount debacle and worked in the Justice Department under the Bush Administration. Even if he doesn't have natural charisma, he is going to put on a show for the debates and likely make tea party type voters cling to him. He pulled it off before with his Senate win.

He seems fucked over with rich donors. He panders to the Koch's but they have others higher than him to give money to. Other, he hasn't been invited to many large donors meetings.

 

[Lead]

Will be interesting to see if Cruz is even invited to the debates. He'll poll in the low to mid single digits at best and most of the establishment GOP hate his guts. He's a master debator, but only in a debate comp situation, and as we all know Presidential debates are not that, but mostly the most creative way candidates can answer any question posed with a canned stump speech answer.

So you think Carson will be in the debates or neither of the two?

 

[ShoelessRye]

Depends on how many end up running, but you can't have more than 5 on stage and get anything accomplished. If Bush, Rubio, Walker, Christie, Paul, Perry, Huck are all running you need to really whittle down the numbers and quick. I'd guess all will be invited to the first one, but then after than you'll just have the true contenders. I guess it would be hard to marginalize a sitting US Senator though.

 

[Lead]

Iowa