Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[ShoelessRye]

I think the GOP plan in pushing Bush is that a Bush vs Clinton election would excite nobody and turn off a lot of folks. Dems win when there is excitement and they can get out their voter base - the GOP plan is to have a low key, boring election and win because Dems don't turn out.

More than anything this election is about SCOTUS and the GOP Power Brokers certainly know this. Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsberg and Breyer will likely all be replaced by the 45th President (provided they serve two terms) meaning the court goes from 5-4 conservative lean presently to a 6-3 Liberal lean or a 7-2 hard conservative lean for the next 20 years (with SCOTUS nominees in their early 50s these days).

 

[Lead]

With Romney Out, Nevada Caucuses Up for Grabs in '16

Since 2008, when Nevada acquired its coveted status as one of the four early presidential voting states, there

 

[Lead]

Scott Walker Hires N.H. Advisers for Likely 2016 Bid

As he inches closer to launching his all-but-certain presidential campaign, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is staffing up in New Hampshire.
Walker

 

[Lead]

I think the GOP plan in pushing Bush is that a Bush vs Clinton election would excite nobody and turn off a lot of folks. Dems win when there is excitement and they can get out their voter base - the GOP plan is to have a low key, boring election and win because Dems don't turn out.

More than anything this election is about SCOTUS and the GOP Power Brokers certainly know this. Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsberg and Breyer will likely all be replaced by the 45th President (provided they serve two terms) meaning the court goes from 5-4 conservative lean presently to a 6-3 Liberal lean or a 7-2 hard conservative lean for the next 20 years (with SCOTUS nominees in their early 50s these days).

I wonder if we will get a guy like Breyer after he is gone.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Very little activity on the left at this point.

 

[Ayin]

Very little activity on the left at this point.

I was kind of hoping a mirror thread would be made for the Democrat side, but I guess there's less current interest since the key people are likely very established at this point, and the democrat media are still concentrating on the current administration?

 

[MyOwnSummer12]

I think the GOP plan in pushing Bush is that a Bush vs Clinton election would excite nobody and turn off a lot of folks. Dems win when there is excitement and they can get out their voter base - the GOP plan is to have a low key, boring election and win because Dems don't turn out.

More than anything this election is about SCOTUS and the GOP Power Brokers certainly know this. Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsberg and Breyer will likely all be replaced by the 45th President (provided they serve two terms) meaning the court goes from 5-4 conservative lean presently to a 6-3 Liberal lean or a 7-2 hard conservative lean for the next 20 years (with SCOTUS nominees in their early 50s these days).

Dems would definitely turn out for Hillary, don't get it twisted. They'll hype the first female President slogan to epic proportions and ride that bitch till the end. In fact, it's the only way the democrats could win in 2016 IMO. Build excitement for something totally superficial (being female). Plus it ties into the established liberal mentality of dividing people into groups, they love themselves some group division based upon superficial shit (race, sex, sexual behavior, income, etc).

 

[Gandhi]

Dems would definitely turn out for Hillary, don't get it twisted. They'll hype the first female President slogan to epic proportions and ride that bitch till the end. In fact, it's the only way the democrats could win in 2016 IMO. Build excitement for something totally superficial (being female). Plus it ties into the established liberal mentality of dividing people into groups, they love themselves some group division based upon superficial shit (race, sex, sexual behavior, income, etc).

Willie Horton sez u be posting from the bubble

 

[Lead]

I was kind of hoping a mirror thread would be made for the Democrat side, but I guess there's less current interest since the key people are likely very established at this point, and the democrat media are still concentrating on the current administration?

I was going to make a mirror thread but definitely not this early. There have been a few good articles thus far about Hilary's campaign that have been missed. Hopefully somewhat of a primary does form by the time we hit summer. To have her run almost uncontested would be a little disappointing.

 

[Lead]

The POLITICO Caucus: Christie slips from first tier

Twice as many early state insiders believe that New Jersey’s credit downgrades are a bigger problem for Chris Christie’s presidential hopes than the “Bridgegate” traffic scandal.
This week’s survey of The POLITICO Caucus – a bipartisan group of key activists, operatives and thought leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire – reveals a pervasive feeling that Christie has slipped out of the top tier of candidates. Just two of 81 respondents believe that the governor will win their state’s Republican caucus or primary next year.

 

[Lead]

Marco Rubio sharpens commander-in-chief pitch

Jeb Bush may have stolen the spotlight this week, but Marco Rubio wants voters to know he

 

[Lead]

Scott Walker: Dynasty nominee would be bad for GOP

Scott Walker worries that Republicans would lose a key advantage in 2016 if the party puts up a dynasty candidate of its own, Jeb Bush, to run against Hillary Clinton. The Wisconsin GOP governor says he’d be ready to legislate with gusto in early 2017 if he were to win the White House. And he believes Mitt Romney got it wrong on the economy in 2012.
...
“I think it’s just part of a pattern. Some people say, ‘OK she’s going to be impossible to beat.’ I think there’s no doubt if the narrative is just between two personalities, I’d argue two names from the past, it becomes very difficult because then it becomes an issue of personalities.
“The narrative is we have a chance to elect the first woman as president of the United States, something I think we should have done a long time ago. I just don’t think it should be Hillary Clinton. There’s a lot of other women I can think of in the Republican Party who would be a much better alternative to that and some day will be. But if it’s a narrative like that, I think we run into trouble.”

 

[ShoelessRye]

Scott Walker: Dynasty nominee would be bad for GOP

Will be interesting to see how he's answer the obvious Sarah Palin follow-up here.

 

[Makani]

I'm sure there are some not-crazy women in the Republican party, but they sure don't turn on the debate stage or Fox. I didn't see the follow up, but I hope someone asked him "Name 5?"

 

[ShoelessRye]

I'm sure there are some not-crazy women in the Republican party, but they sure don't turn on the debate stage or Fox. I didn't see the follow up, but I hope someone asked him "Name 5?"

If he wanted to play it safe - Gov Susana Martinez, Sen Kelly Ayotte, Sen Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers

He also has a female Lt. Gov.

 

[Makani]

If he wanted to play it safe - Gov Susana Martinez, Sen Kelly Ayotte, Sen Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers

He also has a female Lt. Gov.

Yeah, like I said, I don't paint Republican women with the Palin/Bachmann brush, it's just a shame none of these women are sniffing a debate stage. I'd also like to see who he would name off the top of his head, though I'm sure he prepared for a follow up. I am not a Hillary supporter, but I would much rather she win than any of the frontrunners in the GOP right now.

I also agree with your early point, voter apathy from the Left will be one of the biggest concerns for the Democrats. I already know a bunch who are taking Hillary's nomination/win for granted. Will the people who voted Obama show up to vote for Hillary? She has never struck me as charismatic, not in the way Bill or Obama are. I do think the "Oh god, we can't lose to another Bush!" narrative might save them though.

 

[Lead]

If he wanted to play it safe - Gov Susana Martinez, Sen Kelly Ayotte, Sen Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers

He also has a female Lt. Gov.

Did you leave Nikki Haley off the list because you rank those five above or you don't think she is as qualified?

I do think the GOP needs far more work with reaching out to women then minorities. I think the possibility of a non-white GOP presidential candidate is far higher chance in the future compared to a woman candidate. The GOP needs to reform their stances on birth control to even begin to make headway.

Romney made it a non-issue. I remember one of the moderators asking him about birth control and Romney was like "uh yea, who doesn't agree with that?"

 

[ShoelessRye]

Yeah, like I said, I don't paint Republican women with the Palin/Bachmann brush, it's just a shame none of these women are sniffing a debate stage. I'd also like to see who he would name off the top of his head, though I'm sure he prepared for a follow up. I am not a Hillary supporter, but I would much rather she win than any of the frontrunners in the GOP right now.

I also agree with your early point, voter apathy from the Left will be one of the biggest concerns for the Democrats. I already know a bunch who are taking Hillary's nomination/win for granted. Will the people who voted Obama show up to vote for Hillary? She has never struck me as charismatic, not in the way Bill or Obama are. I do think the "Oh god, we can't lose to another Bush!" narrative might save them though.

Hillary is a charismatic blackhole. I think she knows this though and I figure she'll use music and Hollywood connections to make her exciting by using proxies to sell the idea of an historic Presidency as first woman. She'll also have Bill and Pres Obama stumping for her to help gin up excitement. I wonder if she'd allow a running mate to upstage her the way Palin did to McCain on the stump and chose a charismatic stump dynamo for a running mate.

I think Ayotte and Martinez could be VP candidates on the GOP side.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Did you leave Nikki Haley off the list because you rank those five above or you don't think she is as qualified?

Seems to have too much drama/whiffs of scandal around her. Mary Fallin would be another name I left off the list. Haley might be smart to name drop though given SC will be a very important primary for Walker.

 

[Lead]

Hillary is a charismatic blackhole. I think she knows this though and I figure she'll use music and Hollywood connections to make her exciting by using proxies to sell the idea of an historic Presidency as first woman. She'll also have Bill and Pres Obama stumping for her to help gin up excitement. I wonder if she'd allow a running mate to upstage her the way Palin did to McCain on the stump and chose a charismatic stump dynamo for a running mate.

I think Ayotte and Martinez could be VP candidates on the GOP side.

If Christie could get to the GE, I feel that he would pick Martinez as his VP. That's a long shot though.