Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

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Lead Salad said:
The Bush family endorsed Romney in 2012, especially because they didn't like Perry. From what I've read, the Bush family really doesn't like Perry.

Rubio plays spoiler for Bush and gets a cabinet/VP spot with Walker in the general election? There has to be reasons for some of these moves going on. Romney has no reason to run and I'm kinda surprised Rubio still is going to with Jeb there.

I hope Christie runs just for the debates alone.
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Perry and the Bush family problems comes from Perry being a democrat in the 70's and 80's and working for Gore's election campaign in Texas in 1988.
 
Lead Salad said:
Rubio plays spoiler for Bush and gets a cabinet/VP spot with Walker in the general election? There has to be reasons for some of these moves going on. Romney has no reason to run and I'm kinda surprised Rubio still is going to with Jeb there.

I hope Christie runs just for the debates alone.
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Pretty much. I think Koch's are calling some shots here. I could see a Walker/Rubio ticket making sense. Danger for Rubio is that he can't run for VP and run for Senate re-election, so if he's on the Presidential ticket and loses, he's out completely. I think the play for him would be to drop out after Florida, endorse Walker and then run for Senate re-election. If Walker won, Rubio would then accept a plum Cabinet spot while the Florida GOP Gov would then get to name his interim replacement until a special election can happen or until 2018 Congressionals, both of which favor the Republican in the race as Dems only turn out in Presidential years.
 
ShoelessRye said:
Pretty much. I think Koch's are calling some shots here. I could see a Walker/Rubio ticket making sense. Danger for Rubio is that he can't run for VP and run for Senate re-election, so if he's on the Presidential ticket and loses, he's out completely. I think the play for him would be to drop out after Florida, endorse Walker and then run for Senate re-election. If Walker won, Rubio would then accept a plum Cabinet spot while the Florida GOP Gov would then get to name his interim replacement until a special election can happen or until 2018 Congressionals, both of which favor the Republican in the race as Dems only turn out in Presidential years.
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Florida is a toss up so to have Rubio win the election for the GOP before leaving the post would be very helpful for them. I'm not even sure if the GOP likes Rubio leaving that seat. I think he could hold it for a long time if he chose to.
 
2016.17.png

The 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

Looks like New York moved their primary earlier in the year and will be in the third round of elections after New Hampshire and Iowa.
 
Lead Salad said:
Florida is a toss up so to have Rubio win the election for the GOP before leaving the post would be very helpful for them. I'm not even sure if the GOP likes Rubio leaving that seat. I think he could hold it for a long time if he chose to.
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Dems have no real bench in Florida - I mean they ran Crist for crying out loud. Bill Nelson would be up for re-election in 2018, IF Rubio ran on the Walker ticket and lost, he could always challenge Nelson, assuming Nelson even ran for re-election as he'd be 76yo running in a non-Presidential year. IIRC there was rumors he wasn't going to run again in 2012.

I guess the national shot callers would have to consider if Rubio could deliver Florida for a Walker/Rubio ticket because if they felt they could than they'd have to figure it was worth the risk, especially considering if they did deliver Florida than the GOP Senate candidate would very likely win as well.

GOP has House locked down, has four seat cushion in the Senate, they might swing for the fences and go for the WH and risk the Rubio seat knowing worst case in that they lose the WH and Senate they'd still have the House to run complete obstruction. But if they won the WH, keep the Senate and House than they run roughshod - medium risk with great reward potential.
 
I really cannot fathom why Ben Carson gets/has gotten so much support from some segments within the GOP.
 
ShoelessRye said:
Ask Herman Cain.
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It seems to me that some segments within the Republican Party merely like trotting out a black guy who will say anything that's defamatory about the other side (i.e. Democrats, liberals, the media, etc.). And they really get a major kick out of doing so.
 
ShoelessRye said:
Michigan will be in March. By the coloring of this pic it makes it seem they're in January.

As far as I know as well Iowa is first in the nation and will be Feb 1st 2016.

Feb. 1 — Iowa Caucuses
Feb. 9 — New Hampshire Primary
Feb. 20 – Nevada Caucuses
Feb. 27 – South Carolina Primary

States can then go whenever they want starting March 1st.
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Click on the link. I think they are showing the current proposals in the state legislators to move states earlier. This is something the GOP committee is trying to do to shorten the primary cycle as well. Michigan had a proposal for March but it failed. For some reason they have New York for February 2nd but aren't saying what legislation pass or declined in the legislator.

EDIT- found it
2 The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.
3 The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.
7 A Republican-sponsored bill during the 2013 session of the Nevada legislature would create a consolidated primary (presidential primary together with state primaries) and move the contest from June to January.
8 The North Carolina primary is now scheduled for the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary if the South Carolina contest is prior to March 15. Given the protected status South Carolina enjoys with the national parties, a primary prior to March 15 is a certainty for both parties in the Palmetto state. The link to the North Carolina statute does not yet reflect the change made to the presidential primary law. Language laying out the parameters for the primary can be found in the bill (HB 589) signed into law in summer 2013.
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Utah, New York, Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada could all be moved up before South Carolina.
 
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steveflynn said:
I really cannot fathom why Ben Carson gets/has gotten so much support from some segments within the GOP.
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Carson has been able to move into the race early and lock up some big money from the tea party. There is a link somewhere in the thread that he has about $12 million at this point which is a great start considering how obscure of a candidate he is.
 
Lead Salad said:
I always laugh at this stuff. No one cares. They are entertainers. If people had to pick music by ideologies, life would be more complicated than it needs to be. Different spheres man.
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Why so serious?
 
Lead Salad said:
Carson has been able to move into the race early and lock up some big money from the tea party. There is a link somewhere in the thread that he has about $12 million at this point which is a great start considering how obscure of a candidate he is.
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I just find his rise to be very odd, especially considering, he literally has no political experience whatsoever (and the Republican Party is always touting experience as being essential) and it seems as though his rise is solely attributable to him criticizing the POTUS at a speech about two years ago.
 
Dochter said:
Why so serious?
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It wasn't a serious post. I said I laugh at that stuff. It happens frequently. I think the last one I remember was Paul Ryan and Rage Against the Machine.
 
steveflynn said:
I just find his rise to be very odd, especially considering, he literally has no political experience whatsoever (and the Republican Party is always touting experience as being essential) and it seems as though his rise is solely attributable to him criticizing the POTUS at a speech about two years ago.
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Pretty much, yea. Every speech I've heard him make has been criticizing Obama with no alternative solutions behind it. He is famous for talking shit on the President in front of him and is keeping his fame alive by talking shit about him on tv and at events. Tea Party loves it.

What i've heard from a person who likes Carson in his defense was that he was in charge of multiple hospitals and understands how healthcare works so he will somehow be able to repeal Obamacare and put a better system in place. It's a weak argument.
 
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