Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation" (Update: 2022 Inflation Highest in 40 Years)

Rob Battisti said:
I will take a 6 month signature bet that the period between May 2021 and May 2022 we will average >5% on the CPI.

“I’ve got a feeling Rob will back out.” I was just trying to actually see what you wanted to bet on since you wussed out of my initial bet into a more favorable bet toward yourself.
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Our initial talk had some ambiguity, and I said from the start that reasonable expectations were very different depending on how it resolved. "Gas prices are going to soar" is a different claim than "gas prices could fluctuate a lot and possibly briefly hit a high level." Similar with inflation. But OK, I'm down for that. I accept 6-month sig that CPI will be <5% (you win if it's equal) average during that period. @Lead, can you record this one in the bet thread?
 
Proud American said:
We will begin to see the Fed printing huge sums of fake money to Just pay the minimum interest payments.

if the debt doubles again in another 4 years, our debt would be 100 trillion by 2029. The dollar would be worthless. If it doubles in another 4 years, it’ll be 200 trillion by 2034.

but I hear you’ve spent your life saying debt doesn’t matter. Spend spend spend. Well your lies, or maybe it’s your mistake, is gonna hit the unmovable mountain and we are all gonna suffer.

I would say we will see the dollar plummet in value. And it already is.
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So you're saying you expect high inflation, yes? How high, and when?
 
I'm sure Democrats love paying more for the same product.

I know most of you live with your parents and do not to buy the groceries but for the rest of us, it sucks.
 
Mark Hunts FIST said:
I'm sure Democrats love paying more for the same product.

I know most of you live with your parents and do not to buy the groceries but for the rest of us, it sucks.
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That's an odd angle to take. The actual discussion is about whether prices will rise as much as people think, not whether prices rising is good.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Our initial talk had some ambiguity, and I said from the start that reasonable expectations were very different depending on how it resolved. "Gas prices are going to soar" is a different claim than "gas prices could fluctuate a lot and possibly briefly hit a high level." Similar with inflation. But OK, I'm down for that. I accept 6-month sig that CPI will be <5% (you win if it's equal) average during that period. @Lead, can you record this one in the bet thread?
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Whatever you say. Sounds like a deal!
 
Rob Battisti said:
@Jack V Savage its kind of funny. If I win, I really lose. If I lose, I really win!
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Well, if we see inflation around that level at that time, that'll mean the economy is booming like we've never seen. So the inflation itself could be annoying, but your income and investments would be doing great.
 
Jack V Savage said:
That's an odd angle to take. The actual discussion is about whether prices will rise as much as people think, not whether prices rising is good.
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I made a quick knee jerk reaction to the title of of post.
"GOP back to inflation worries"..
Are we not all concerned about inflation and how it impacts our daily lives?
 
Mark Hunts FIST said:
I made a quick knee jerk reaction to the title of of post.
"GOP back to inflation worries"..
Are we not all concerned about inflation and how it impacts our daily lives?
Click to expand...

Throughout Obama's presidency, Republicans constantly pushed the idea that hyperinflation was just around the corner, while most economists were saying that there was no threat there (excessively low inflation was a bigger threat). Turned out the economists were right, and the analysis underlying the view that inflation was about to soar was just obviously bad. Then while Trump was in office, hacks suddenly stopped caring about inflation, even though all the same dynamics were in play, and he greatly increased long-term debt with an ill-advised regressive tax cut. And now as soon as Biden takes office, all of a sudden (again), we're seeing predictions of hyperinflation again. Seeing a bump in inflation *is* actually more likely now than it was during Obama's presidency (when the country was still plagued by a private debt overhang that was slowing the recovery--which required more gov't spending that wasn't coming) because the situation this time is something that will be easier to recover from, and we're set up for a boom beyond that with major action. But hyperinflation or even levels that are a problem remains pretty much off the table. The worst-case scenario is not actually high inflation but the Fed having to raise rates to tame it and slowing growth, but that would be slowing growth from very strong levels. IMO, we're set for some of the best economic times in anyone's lifetime in the next few years.
 
The wealthiest people on the planet transferred upwards of 20 trillion dollars in wealth from the hands of the middle and lower classes.

On a story about a cold that has a sub 1% mortality rate....

Imagine.
 
Natural Order said:
The wealthiest people on the planet transferred upwards of 20 trillion dollars in wealth from the hands of the middle and lower classes.

On a story about a cold that has a sub 1% mortality rate....

Imagine.
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Build back better!
 
Natural Order said:
The wealthiest people on the planet transferred upwards of 20 trillion dollars in wealth from the hands of the middle and lower classes.

On a story about a cold that has a sub 1% mortality rate....

Imagine.
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If you believe all the CDC claimed 600k US deaths were really all because of Covid and not with Covid, it’s not even 14bps. That’s around 7/10th of 1%. Saying 1% is a drastic overstatement.
 
Jack V Savage said:
If you look at the components, you gotta be feeling pretty nervous. I think it's likely that the full-year number will come in a bit ahead of the middle of where I'd put the distribution range, but I think I'm a lock to win the bet, and I think we just saw the peak.
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nhl-interview-st-louis-blues-jordan-binnington-YSk7kOs4YVtkPi80Ie
 
Rob Battisti said:

nhl-interview-st-louis-blues-jordan-binnington-YSk7kOs4YVtkPi80Ie
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:) One-third of the total increase is just used cars and trucks (which are up 45% because of bottlenecks). Pretty clearly not a general inflation issue at this point. Remember when everyone was freaking out about lumber prices? They're not flat YOY. I think there are pretty obvious solutions to the car shortage, too.
 
Jack V Savage said:
:) One-third of the total increase is just used cars and trucks (which are up 45% because of bottlenecks). Pretty clearly not a general inflation issue at this point. Remember when everyone was freaking out about lumber prices? They're not flat YOY. I think there are pretty obvious solutions to the car shortage, too.
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see you in May 2022 my friend
 
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