Elections GOP 2016 Primary Thread V4: Can Trump be Trumped Edition

No, he's not. Trump's value is that he forces the other candidates out of their comfort zone and forces them to deal with issues they prefer to sideline.

But he's not conservative, and much of his support doesn't come from conservatives.

I'd support Trump over MOST of the candidates, not all. Like the weak moderate ones that the Biden and Sanders would actually have a good chance of winning against.

Is Bush on the list of whom I'd rather support Trump? You're goddamn right. Bush being President is a nightmare for voters, and a dream for the Washington Establishment.
 
I was disappointed to learn, last night, that Trump was an anti-vaxxer. Up until now all the crazy shit he said still had undeniable comedic elements and the more extreme stuff (like when his supporters committed a hate crime assault against a Mexican and he refused to condemn them, saying his supporters were "passionate") had an element of shocking surrealism to it that made it easy to dispel with an eye-roll and a bemused shake of the head.

Now he's simply saying shit that has been far too stupid and repeated for far too long for it to still be dismissed as his peculiar charm. It's strange to be let down by a candidate you only supported jokingly.

From what I heard he wasn't an anti vaxxer. He had concerns about how they're distributed and he brought up the autism thing but I'm pretty sure he said he was for vaccinations.
 
This cycle is completely differ.....

Jessie Jackson? Really?

Anyway, usually there's already been significant changes in approval numbers since the debates start. But since August 9th, they've been mostly stagnant. Bush's numbers have dropped to almost nothing, only one candidate has dropped out, and the top two candidates are still the top two candidates.

You're mostly right with the excuse that 'Its early.' But when does it become 'not early?'

From day 180 to 90 before the first primary Trump is #1 in the polls, longer than any other non-establishment candidate since Reagan.

I'd say in January, we will see a clearer picture. Like Jack said, the endorsement primary is still very early and even with Rubio and Jeb leading, very few senators or governors have chosen yet. 538 had an article about past races with endorsements and it was showing historically, we are very close to approaching a spike where the party starts deciding.

Other candidates being asked about Trump's success in the polls with a mere 'It's early' is excusable, because what are they gonna say? "Yeah, I'm really fucked."

But in honestly attempting to assess the race for the nomination, saying 'Its early' comes off a biased and dismissive of success, merely because your candidate isn't high in the polls.

'Hey Lead, your favorite guy looks like he's going to win the nomination! Isn't that great?'

'Its early.'

I've actually provided substance to why "it's early" rather than the other people I've seen saying a candidate is still at the top. I think the historical argument is better than a present one. If you don't understand the present doesn't always reflect future outcomes, you would then try to look up how correlated this point in time and the nomination are. That's what I've done and to say it's just dismissive/biased doesn't carry merit. With that said, I do not obviously like Trump and I have mentioned there are things about him that are breaking the rules. Thus far though, time is the biggest indicator whether the frontrunner are high percentage to win and at this point, he isnt.


Also, it's fair to note I haven't chosen Rubio as my favorite candidate. I think he may have the best chance to win a GE but I have serious reservations on his FP and NSA stances. I've leaned towards Kasich the most but he has all but backed out on his balancing the budget stance for increasing military spending. At this point, I don't even think I side with a candidate as I think the GOP is still too hawkish and have not begun returning to a pre-Reagan pary.
 
Cruz, Rubio Lie Low During Trump Uproar
Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are in the best position to challenge Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination at the moment, yet the two candidates have largely steered clear of the controversy over Trump’s recent proposal to ban Muslims from immigrating to America.

The proposal stood out as one of Trump’s most extreme to date, drawing scorn even from within the Republican Party. “This is not conservatism,” House Speaker Paul Ryan insisted Tuesday.
 
your leading gop candidate
CNDFPU3VAAA9IY4.jpg
 
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/2016-presidential-tweet-bernie-sanders-most-retweeted-121157
from the previous debate, which he will surpass.

He also gained 50k twitter followers during this debate, compare with the actual candidates debating on stage:
a8ftazd.jpg


lol this is gonna be easy. Not one person the GOP is fielding can stand up to scrutiny. The more people learn, the more are converted. Join the team, he loves you.

There is so much botting on twitter. Those numbers are meaningless.
 
It's possible that there's been some kind of fundamental shift and history is no longer any kind of guide (I don't see any good reason to believe it, but maybe), but at least understand that when people dismiss early polling, it's because they disagree with you on that claim. It's not always a matter of bias.

Good point.
 
Cruz wins key Iowa evangelical endorsement
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Ted Cruz on Thursday received the endorsement of influential Iowa social conservative Bob Vander Plaats, advancing the Texas senator's bid to become the top choice of Iowa's Christian conservatives.
Vander Plaats revealed his intention to the Des Moines Register, ahead of a press conference to announce the decision at the Iowa State Capitol.
Story Continued Below
"At the end of the day, we truly believe that Ted Cruz is the most consistent and principled conservative who has the ability to not only win Iowa but I believe to win the (Republican) nomination," he told the Register.
Vander Plaats, King and Deace are pillars of the evangelical establishment in Iowa, and offer Cruz — who is already extensively organized in the state — big networks of committed supporters likely to turn out on Feb. 1.

Ted Cruz to barnstorm the South in Super Tuesday sweep

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Ted Cruz will embark next week on a splashy swing through many of the states that vote on March 1, an effort to lock down support in those mostly Southern states before turning full attention to the first four voting contests of the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
The Texas senator, flying with staff and his family on a chartered plane, will do 12 events in 12 cities in one week, flying from Las Vegas to St. Paul, Minnesota, on Dec. 17 after the next presidential debate, and wrapping up on Dec. 23 in Oklahoma City. The fly-around tour, dubbed “Take Off with Ted,” will feature rally-style events in states including Minnesota, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma. The tour will be a highly produced endeavor apparently designed to help voters envision Cruz as a general election contender.
 
I'd support Trump over MOST of the candidates, not all. Like the weak moderate ones that the Biden and Sanders would actually have a good chance of winning against.

Is Bush on the list of whom I'd rather support Trump? You're goddamn right. Bush being President is a nightmare for voters, and a dream for the Washington Establishment.

I'm a conservative and I'd rather the fucking devil was president than Jeb. He's a scuzzball.

I like Trump. I think he's a clown, but I like that he's gone into this little polite establishment gathering, overturned the coffee table, and shat on the carpet.

But I don't see him getting the nomination. Ever. Or winning the presidency if he goes third party. But at least he's taken a boring election and put both some excitement and substance into it. He's forced the establishment candidates to talk about issues they did not want to talk about, but should talk about.
 
From what I heard he wasn't an anti vaxxer. He had concerns about how they're distributed and he brought up the autism thing but I'm pretty sure he said he was for vaccinations.

Nope. He's an idiot anti-vaxxer of a different strain talking same old shit. His deal is that vaccinations are good, except when you give them all at once to a child. They should be spread out to avoid autism. See here (link).

EDIT: his claims are that vaccinations are causing an autism epidemic and that all kinds of beautiful babies are being ruined. The usual anti-vaxxer bullshit.
 
I'd say in January, we will see a clearer picture. Like Jack said, the endorsement primary is still very early and even with Rubio and Jeb leading, very few senators or governors have chosen yet. 538 had an article about past races with endorsements and it was showing historically, we are very close to approaching a spike where the party starts deciding. [/b]

Establishment politicians endorce establishment candidates.

So far, this race has been extremely anti-establishment, with the two biggest candidates hasn't even ran for office before, and the two currently in 3rd and 4th place being 1st term senators.
I've actually provided substance to why "it's early" rather than the other people I've seen saying a candidate is still at the top. I think the historical argument is better than a present one. If you don't understand the present doesn't always reflect future outcomes, you would then try to look up how correlated this point in time and the nomination are. That's what I've done and to say it's just dismissive/biased doesn't carry merit. With that said, I do not obviously like Trump and I have mentioned there are things about him that are breaking the rules. Thus far though, time is the biggest indicator whether the frontrunner are high percentage to win and at this point, he isnt.

Also, it's fair to note I haven't chosen Rubio as my favorite candidate. I think he may have the best chance to win a GE but I have serious reservations on his FP and NSA stances. I've leaned towards Kasich the most but he has all but backed out on his balancing the budget stance for increasing military spending. At this point, I don't even think I side with a candidate as I think the GOP is still too hawkish and have not begun returning to a pre-Reagan pary.

I guess time will tell if history will repeat itself again, but so far this cycle it seems it's going to tread new ground.

As far as Trump goes, he was entertaining and marginalized Jeb at first, and I considered voting for him. But after his recent rants at Iowa that were far below the standard of professionalism I would expect from a serious Republican candidate, there's no chance I'll support him for the nomination. He proved he doesn't have the temperment to be the leader of the free world.

Now, IF he wins the nomination, would I vote for him to be President? I'm from Kansas. I highly doubt my vote matters much there.
 
Rand Paul could be booted from main debate stage
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Rand Paul, once considered the main contender for the anti-establishment GOP vote, will likely be pushed off the debate stage next week when CNN announces the lineup for the fifth Republican forum.
Chris Christie, however, has clawed back in the polling thanks to a rebound in New Hampshire, virtually ensuring he will be promoted to the main event in Las Vegas on Tuesday, according to POLITICO’s calculations.
Based on national polls, only five candidates are at 3 percent or higher in surveys conducted since late October: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush.

Looking like the new stage will be eight candidates:
Trump
Cruz
Carson
Rubio
Bush
Fiorina
Christie
Kasich

CNN is also allowing candidates to qualify based on Iowa and NH polls as well.
 
Establishment politicians endorce establishment candidates.

So far, this race has been extremely anti-establishment, with the two biggest candidates hasn't even ran for office before, and the two currently in 3rd and 4th place being 1st term senators.


I guess time will tell if history will repeat itself again, but so far this cycle it seems it's going to tread new ground.

As far as Trump goes, he was entertaining and marginalized Jeb at first, and I considered voting for him. But after his recent rants at Iowa that were far below the standard of professionalism I would expect from a serious Republican candidate, there's no chance I'll support him for the nomination. He proved he doesn't have the temperment to be the leader of the free world.

Now, IF he wins the nomination, would I vote for him to be President? I'm from Kansas. I highly doubt my vote matters much there.

Anti-establishment, yes. I do think, even supporters of Trump/Carson, take some consideration about who other politicians they like endorse. You can look at the broad disdain for DC like with Congress but when you look at favor/unfavor polls for the local person's representative compared to congress as a whole or even their party in congress as a whole, the local representative has far more support. Florida republicans may hate the establishment politics in Washington but that doesn't mean they don't like Rubio currently or Bush necessarily. Ohio republicans may hate it too but they like Kasich overwelmingly and Portman I would assume. The list goes on, Wisconsin>Walker/Ryan, etc. There's no reason to believe a consensus in endorsements will carry no weight this year, even with an anti-establishment wave (which may I mention was the same case in 2012.)

It doesn't even make sense he led in Iowa as that's the Evangelical Tea Party leaning primary and he is a secular populist. I am just as confused by NH but if I had to guess which of the two he should go for, it would've been NH cause I wouldve saw no chance for him in Iowa. I still think Iowa is going to Carson Cruz or the offchance of Jindal. Those are the only guys who fit the mold to win it.
 
Trump, endorsed by police group, vows 'death penalty' for cop killers
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When he is president, Donald Trump declared upon receiving the endorsement of the New England Benevolent Police Association, a union representing police and corrections officers on Thursday, he will sign an executive order to make sure any person who kills a cop will get the death penalty.
‘‘I said that one of the first things I'd do in terms of executive order if I win will be sign a strong, strong statement that will go out to the country, out to the world, that anybody killing policemen, police woman, police officer, anybody killing a police officer, death penalty is going to happen, OK. Can't go. We can't let this go," Trump said at a hotel ballroom in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, after his meeting with the group, according to The Associated Press.
 
Haha. I'll vote in this one. From my perspective as a liberal, Trump is the obvious choice, both because in a lot of ways he's the most moderate candidate and because he has no chance of winning.

it is thoroughly amusing how hard the base of the party not only supports him but defends a guy who is the least conservative one running and not even a real conservative to begin with.
 
Yeah, that's crazy. Not only because the media aren't liberal, but because actual liberals are pretty scared of Rubio and not scared at all of *any* of the other candidates.

Not liberal? How do you quantify that.
 
Antoher poll has Cruz passing Trump in Iowa 31-21


Cruz Soars to Front of the Pack in Iowa Poll; Trump Support Stays Flat

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has surged ahead to become the latest front-runner in the campaign for the Iowa caucuses, dislodging Ben Carson and opening an impressive lead over a stalled Donald Trump, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.
The firebrand junior senator from Texas is backed by 31 percent of those likely to attend the Republican caucuses that start the presidential nomination season on Feb. 1. Trump is a distant second at 21 percent, up slightly from 19 percent in October, but below his peak of 23 percent in August.


Average for Iowa on RCP

Cruz 25.0
Trump 24.3
Carson 14.0
Rubio 12.7
Bush 5.3
Paul 3.3
Christie 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Fiorina 2.3
Kasich 2.0
Santorum 1.0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html


Once again, winter is here
 
it is thoroughly amusing how hard the base of the party not only supports him but defends a guy who is the least conservative one running and not even a real conservative to begin with.

How many times does it have to be told to you, Dumb Joe, that Trump's support does not come from the base?

Five?

Ten

Fifteen?

Can you give me a number so I can just repost the various polling figures which show that Trump is not any more a darling of the right than he is of any other ideology in the party?
 
So he's not an anti vaxxer then....

He is an anti-vaxxer because he's saying they cause autism and there's an autism epidemic. And the spread of that kind of disinformation is vastly more damaging than anything remotely positive that could come from his ridiculous advice when getting your kids vaccinated. I thought you would bother to read the link that outlined all the typical anti-vaxxer garbage info he spouts.
 
Trump because he is not a career politician unlike everyone else in the government right now. He wouldn't be influenced by money either (with Sanders a close second).
 
How many times does it have to be told to you, Dumb Joe, that Trump's support does not come from the base?

Five?

Ten

Fifteen?

Can you give me a number so I can just repost the various polling figures which show that Trump is not any more a darling of the right than he is of any other ideology in the party?

so the conservative base doesnt support donald trump? haha, maybe you should read that nyt article again. read the part about him leading amongst the self described tea party suporters. or is the tea party not conservative now?
 
You could always appoint 10 new Supreme Court justices, and have them revisit the case.

That is true for every single piece of supreme court precedent, and is consequently a meaningless truism.
 
Rival campaigns starting to fear Ted Cruz
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He has more cash than any other Republican candidate. He is organized in every county in the first four voting states. And he has served up one strong debate performance after another.
Now, not three months from primary season, rivals concede they have begun to fear Ted Cruz has an increasingly clear path to the Republican nomination.
Story Continued Below
“Anybody who thinks differently,” said an operative with a rival 2016 campaign, “is lying to you.”

Iowa hardliner Steve King endorses Ted Cruz
Iowa Rep. Steve King on Monday endorsed Ted Cruz, a coup for the Texas senator who is seeking to gain ground with the first-in-the-nation caucus state’s conservative activists, with whom King is deeply influential.
He made the announcement at a press conference in Iowa and in a video released on Twitter, a move that gives Cruz momentum in the battle to consolidate the conservative base in the state even as he currently trails other candidates in the polls.
 
Was this the trip that got cancelled, or is this a new one?

I'm a little confused too. There was one I believe he said was a rumor. I think this one is real but idk. I really have little interest when candidates do international tours like this to claim foreign policy experience. I'm amazed it helps them at all. Seems like it's just a photoshoot overseas with little substance behind it
 
so the conservative base doesnt support donald trump? haha, maybe you should read that nyt article again. read the part about him leading amongst the self described tea party suporters. or is the tea party not conservative now?

Oh I see. You just don't understand basic math.

Trump is leading among *all* demographics, hence his support does not come from the base any more than it comes from any of half-a-dozen other demographics.
 
From what I heard he wasn't an anti vaxxer. He had concerns about how they're distributed and he brought up the autism thing but I'm pretty sure he said he was for vaccinations.

Correct. He just wanted them to be issued in smaller doses over a greater period of time. Because as is, it seems to be this huge amount injected all at once.
 
Rubio sees a 'clash of civilizations'
Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio on Sunday called the conflict between Western nations and the Islamic State a “clash of civilizations” and criticized Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton for failing to say the U.S. was at war with radical Islam.
“I don’t understand it,” the Florida senator said on ABC’s “This Week” after host George Stephanopoulos played a video clip of the former secretary of state saying she didn’t believe the U.S. was “at war with Islam” during the Democratic presidential debate Saturday night in Des Moines, Iowa.

Huckabee calls on Ryan to prevent entry of Syrian refugees, or to step down
Mike Huckabee laced into the U.S.' anti-ISIL strategy on Monday, calling on House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to prevent more Syrian refugees from entering the country without assurances that they can be sussed out from potential terrorist threats in their midst, in the wake of Friday's deadly attacks in Paris.
If not, the former Arkansas governor warned, the newly-elected House speaker should resign.

Rand Paul calls for moratorium on issuing visas to citizens of countries with a 'jihadist movement'
Sen. Rand Paul announced Monday that he was introducing legislation calling for an "immediate moratorium" on the United States issuing visas to refugees from about 30 countries with a "significant jihadist movement."
Paul first announced the legislation during a conference call with a small group of reporters. The announcement comes as a growing list of governors around the country calls to block Syrian refugees from coming to their states in the wake of Friday's attacks in Paris.

Republicans blast Obama's stay-the-course approach to ISIL
Republicans on Monday wasted no time in blasting President Barack Obama for rejecting calls to dramatically change course against Islamic State in the wake of last week's terrorist attacks in Paris, and worked to undermine administration plans to still accept thousands of Syrian refugees.
The attacks that claimed the lives of more than 130 people, including a California college student, have stoked the ire of Republicans who believe Obama has shown a weak hand in countering terrorism abroad and protecting Americans from violent extremism. The presidential race has amplified the response, with candidates racing to condemn Obama's remarks before the G-20 conference in Turkey on Monday in which he declared, "We have the right strategy and we’re gonna see it through."
 
Rand Paul remains on main debate stage
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Rand Paul will be on the main stage at Tuesday’s GOP presidential debate in Las Vegas after CNN tweaked its rules at the last minute to add a ninth podium for the Kentucky senator, the network announced Sunday.
The candidates who will be on the main stage: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie and Paul.
Story Continued Below
The top five candidates qualified as a result of their standing in national polls. Kasich, Fiorina and Christie – who was in the undercard debate last month – made the cut due to their poll numbers in New Hampshire. Candidates qualified if they achieved an average of 3.5 percent in national polls conducted since late October – or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Kinda annoyed with CNN on this. They already expanded the criteria to have Iowa and NH polls so it would be 8 instead of 5 and now they pretty much just said fuck it, we'll make it 9. They want the field to stay large even though the polls are narrowing and some candidates rightfully should be losing spots.
 
your leading gop candidate
CNDFPU3VAAA9IY4.jpg

Is there audio of this quote he supposedly said?

I know he's actually said some outlandish shit, but that makes it even more tempting to make up quotes. That way no one will tell from the outlandish things he actually said, and the outlandish shit someone made up.
 
Incredible how Trump is leading every poll as the debate winner.
 
Bobby Jindal is out. Announced on Fox that he's suspending his campaign.

I assume the next round of debates will bump Christie back to the main stage and cancel the kiddie debate altogether.

So who's next to go? Huck or Kasich?
 
People keep talking about the Republican base with Trump, maybe that term doesn't mean anything anymore. Part of Trumps appeal is that the former elected haven't done their job, even the Tea Party bandwagon candidates. It's not crazy to think outside evangelicals the 'base' is sick of politicians as a whole.

your leading gop candidate
CNDFPU3VAAA9IY4.jpg

To be fair he's probably just surprised he produced such a fine looking woman. I mean Trump looks like shrek but Ivanka is 10/10 and smart.
I've heard older fathers use that sort of language to describe their daughters. The playboy things a bit creepy but you know Trump is about that $$.
 
Why Bobby Jindal’s Candidacy Failed
ap_861991365242.jpg

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal on Tuesday evening became the third governor (current or former) to drop out of the Republican primary race for president. It’s not exactly surprising; he had raised little money and never went very far in the polls. Still, Jindal’s inability to catch on, like that of the other two Republicans to drop out so far — Rick Perry and Scott Walker — shows that candidates who try to appeal to both the establishment and a more conservative part of the party may be stretching themselves too thin.
 
Ted Cruz is probably running the smartest campaign of any candidate right now, I think he might end up getting the nod.
 
Haha. I'll vote in this one. From my perspective as a liberal, Trump is the obvious choice, both because in a lot of ways he's the most moderate candidate and because he has no chance of winning.

As a lifelong Democrat and Obama voter, I can say your last statement is unequivocally false.

Why? Myself and many just like me plan to vote for him, especially if our nominee is Hillary.
 
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this is nothing like ron paul .. I don't recall ron paul getting this type of tv coverage
 
It's kind of weird how if Trump didn't get in. Jindal and more importantly Walker would have been around much longer.
 
Ted Cruz is probably running the smartest campaign of any candidate right now, I think he might end up getting the nod.

It's really looking like Rubio or Cruz. Carson is declining and if he loses Iowa, I don't think he has any chance at all. Still don't believe Trump will be the candidate. He's going to cause hell but I like to believe the public is going to sober up in the next month. Looks like Iowa has. Won't be suprised when NH follows.

Cruz's operation is vast too. The guy is already establishing offices/ground work in much later states than Iowa, NH, and SC. He also is the guy making the second most in cash behind Bush who seems dead at this point. Seems like if Trump doesn't attack him in the debate, he can take Iowa with little blood on his hands.
 
it is thoroughly amusing how hard the base of the party not only supports him but defends a guy who is the least conservative one running and not even a real conservative to begin with.

This is surprising? This is base who declare anti-gun, tax raising, deficit raising, amnesty for 3 million illegals Ronald Reagan as the greatest conservative of all time.
 
this is nothing like ron paul .. I don't recall ron paul getting this type of tv coverage

I don't recall either of them winning a debate, but that hasn't stopped people from voting like they did.
 
It's kind of weird how if Trump didn't get in. Jindal and more importantly Walker would have been around much longer.

If Trump was not in, I think Jeb would be a bigger part of the race
 
Kinda annoyed with CNN on this. They already expanded the criteria to have Iowa and NH polls so it would be 8 instead of 5 and now they pretty much just said fuck it, we'll make it 9. They want the field to stay large even though the polls are narrowing and some candidates rightfully should be losing spots.

Is the process past the point where dropping Paul will cause his supporters to be up in arms about media favouratism and him not getting a fair shake because he's not an "establishment" candidate?
 
As a lifelong Democrat and Obama voter, I can say your last statement is unequivocally false.

Why? Myself and many just like me plan to vote for him, especially if our nominee is Hillary.

Really? I'm enjoying the Trump show as much as the next guy but I would definitely not vote for him and I'm saying that as a Dem who's not at all excited for Hillary and a tad skeptical of Bernie.
 
Walker and Jindal were both hated back home - they moved hard right in hopes that would burnish their national credentials and appeal to the further right primary voter base.

IIRC Jindal got in later in the whole process as well, so a lot of the voter bases were already established and he offered nothing to pull any away to make his own.

I still think Bush ends up the nominee though, but will limp into the GE rather than ride in triumphantly after beating a solid field. He'll just be the last non-crazy standing, severely muddied and spent a lot of money to take down Trump/Carson and then Cruz.
 
Is the process past the point where dropping Paul will cause his supporters to be up in arms about media favouratism and him not getting a fair shake because he's not an "establishment" candidate?

Not sure. All I know is they had pretty fair criteria in place that was more then generous in keeping candidates on the stage and Rand failed to meet them. I don't see how that would be favoritism to any specific group.
 
Is there audio of this quote he supposedly said?

I know he's actually said some outlandish shit, but that makes it even more tempting to make up quotes. That way no one will tell from the outlandish things he actually said, and the outlandish shit someone made up.



That's only the end of the quote though, I try to google things like this too.
 
Incredible how Trump is leading every poll as the debate winner.

We went over this last time. Those polls aren't scientific. You have to usually wait a couple days to see the results a debate had.

Also, Politico and Bloomberg had Carly taking it.

GOP insiders: Carly crushed it
0917-tpc-carly.jpg

Carly Fiorina nailed it in the second Republican debate.
That's the assessment of GOP insiders in a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Wednesday’s 8 p.m. prime-time debate in Simi Valley, California.
Sixty percent of Republican insiders called Fiorina the biggest winner of the evening — no one else was even close — pointing to everything from how she handled Donald Trump to her grasp of policy issues.
A New Hampshire Republican cheered, "The nation finally got a chance to see what we in New Hampshire have been intrigued and impressed by: a political outsider with some real policy chops and the demeanor to be considered a serious contender."
 
Walker and Jindal were both hated back home - they moved hard right in hopes that would burnish their national credentials and appeal to the further right primary voter base.

IIRC Jindal got in later in the whole process as well, so a lot of the voter bases were already established and he offered nothing to pull any away to make his own.

I still think Bush ends up the nominee though, but will limp into the GE rather than ride in triumphantly after beating a solid field. He'll just be the last non-crazy standing, severely muddied and spent a lot of money to take down Trump/Carson and then Cruz.

I don't think even Jeb believes he will still be the nominee, why you do is beyond me
 
Limbaugh and Levin both turned on Trump today, in a very public way, on both of their radio shows.

This is a major development to those that believe that Rush and Levin are major conservative leaders (they are), and most of Trump's base are conservatives (they aren't.)

Among strong conservatives, Trump is the 2nd choice, behind Cruz.

Trump has huge numbers among moderate and independent Republican voters.

But of the conservatives that follow Trump, this could be either a turning point, or the beginning of a turning point for the conservatives that support Trump. Or perhaps not.
 
Oh I see. You just don't understand basic math.

Trump is leading among *all* demographics, hence his support does not come from the base any more than it comes from any of half-a-dozen other demographics.

I don't see how this disproves my statement that trump is being supported by the conservative base
People keep talking about the Republican base with Trump, maybe that term doesn't mean anything anymore. Part of Trumps appeal is that the former elected haven't done their job, even the Tea Party bandwagon candidates. It's not crazy to think outside evangelicals the 'base' is sick of politicians as a whole.



To be fair he's probably just surprised he produced such a fine looking woman. I mean Trump looks like shrek but Ivanka is 10/10 and smart.
I've heard older fathers use that sort of language to describe their daughters. The playboy things a bit creepy but you know Trump is about that $$.
no doubt trump has thought about what its like to bang his daughter
 
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I'd say at the very least Carly tied Rubio.

I'm still seeing a Rubio/Kasich ticket as "the one" to beat anyone the Dems put up.

Cruz didn't do bad at all. I just feel he should have cut in a lot more than he did. He seems to like to wait for the go-ahead instead of just cutting in and going for it. But also, had he been given more time, I feel he could have realy flexed his ideas and came out way ahead of where he ultimately did.


Do you see anyone dropping out before the next debate?
 
I don't think even Jeb believes he will still be the nominee, why you do is beyond me

Republican party rallies around the establishment eventually. There is really two establishment candidates left with any viability - Rubio and Bush. I still don't believe anybody is going to actually vote for Trump or Carson - but we won't know that for a few months yet. I think Carson has already peaked and is going to quickly fade as his debate and interview questions expose him as simply not knowing much. Trump has the style and bluster but he's more the protest option right now. I discount Cruz because his whole party, outside of Sen Lee, seems to hate his guts. I do think he'll be one of the last two standing though along with one of Rubio or Bush. I think Jeb ultimately beats Rubio though because he'll have a better machine behind him and has all the connections from both his Father's and Brother's respective Presidencies.

If the nominee isn't one of Bush, Rubio or Cruz - I'll eat a bug. And of those three I think it comes down to Bush vs Cruz, and Bush wins.
 
Limbaugh and Levin both turned on Trump today, in a very public way, on both of their radio shows.

This is a major development to those that believe that Rush and Levin are major conservative leaders (they are), and most of Trump's base are conservatives (they aren't.)

Among strong conservatives, Trump is the 2nd choice, behind Cruz.

Trump has huge numbers among moderate and independent Republican voters.

But of the conservatives that follow Trump, this could be either a turning point, or the beginning of a turning point for the conservatives that support Trump. Or perhaps not.

The closer we get to the election, the more I worry Trump is really going to fuck things up.
 
Really? I'm enjoying the Trump show as much as the next guy but I would definitely not vote for him and I'm saying that as a Dem who's not at all excited for Hillary and a tad skeptical of Bernie.

Yes, I'm completely serious.

Obama ran and won on labor and curbing the authoritarian abuses of the Bush administration. Labor continues to decline and Obama has done nothing but expand the same type of authoritarian abuses perpetrated by the prior administration.

I have tired of the seeming determination over the last decade to disavow our nation's superpower status.

While many issues I agree with, I tire of the SJW-focused new Democratic party. As a white male concerned about issues such as labor and civil liberties, my voice seems to be unwanted by many in the party.

I'm appalled that the new Left seems more concerned with allowing cross-dressing men to use a little girl's restroom than it is about the pay and hours of the blue color worker. That they would have speech criminalized as "hate speech". I watch online mobs stoked into a fury, relentlessly ruining a person's career simply due to a revealed political donation from last decade.

Today's Left tells me that I put society at risk by owning or carrying a gun, that a citizen should only trust the police to possess them. I've read the works of a lot of the counterculture figures from the 60s and 70s, the first advice given to the neophyte radical was don't trust the pigs and arm themselves.

I want our next president to a be a strong voice for American greatness. I don't want one who will be cowed into submission due to the angry outburst of a select few simply for saying my life is included in those that matter, that all lives matter.

Why not Trump? He's a smart man, very successful, loves America, and would certainly be a true leader who doesn't quibble words trying to protect feelings. When I think of Trump I think of my childhood in the 80s, when everyone was overflowing with national pride and we were universally respected and even adored by those around the world.

Republicans can only target Trump by referring to his prior Democratic leanings. As a lifelong Democrat shouldn't that comfort me? Democrats are scared shitless due to that very fact, in a head-to-head matchup they can't paint him as a mouth-breathing social conservative. They could with other Republican nominees, guaranteeing them victory in a 2016 America that has roundly rejected such principles.

Democrats tried to laugh off Trump, then started slinging the typical charges of racist and misogynist toward him trying to divert America's growing interest in his candidacy. They know the parts of the electorate Trump has really resonated with. Trump will win a far larger percentage of blacks, the working class, and other Democratic demographics than any other Republican candidate by far. A Trump candidacy turns many reliably blue states purple.

I foresee a Trump presidency as one focused on the economy, on illegal immigration, on our superpower status. I really believe Trump when he says he will make America great again, that's why I support him for president.
 
Trump's base is Obama is a African Muslim guy.

Don't forget "We'll deport all of them" and "Vaccines cause autism". It's actually too bad right now Trump doesn't seem to have anyone who directly challenges him. It would be interesting to see, when pressed, how far down the crazy hole he goes for those votes. Iran the greatest threat to the world? Israel the USA's most important ally? He seems to have established himself as a Republican with his vocal support of the Birther conspiracy, so I don't doubt he'd throw in with others.
 
http://m.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-cruz-2016-ticket-gop-frontrunner-article-1.2438829

Interesting story for whose with a strong opinion about Ted Cruz.

What's even more interesting is that a day before, Trump said he may have to 'go to war' with Cruz if Cruz continues to surge in the polls. Then, one day later, he says Cruz could be his VP.

This tells me a few things. Trump is smart, and knows Cruz is his biggest rival to getting the nomination. Not Carson (who's numbers are starting to slip) or Rubio (immigation issue is biggest weakness), but Cruz who has had the most memorable moments in the last two debates and has been rising in the recent polls.

Trump and Cruz have been getting along well, neither is attacking the other on what they disagree, and they agree on most issues.

While not an official offer to be on Trump's ticket, it'll be assurance that Ted will be on his best behavior toward Trump. Because if Cruz isn't the nominee I'm sure he'd gladly take the VP offer as a consulation prize. And I'm sure some of you are thinking 'well, what if Cruz isn't picked to be VP after the nonimation?' That'd be a bad move to Trump, practically a dirty move. And conservatives that supported Cruz and have reservations about Trump as the nominee could be convinced to vote on election day, or dirty politics could convince them not to.

And, most importantly, if Trump would become President Trump, it would be insurance against an impeachment. Washington would hate Trump, but they hate Cruz more.

Your thoughts?
 
It's really looking like Rubio or Cruz. Carson is declining and if he loses Iowa, I don't think he has any chance at all. Still don't believe Trump will be the candidate. He's going to cause hell but I like to believe the public is going to sober up in the next month. Looks like Iowa has. Won't be suprised when NH follows.

Cruz's operation is vast too. The guy is already establishing offices/ground work in much later states than Iowa, NH, and SC. He also is the guy making the second most in cash behind Bush who seems dead at this point. Seems like if Trump doesn't attack him in the debate, he can take Iowa with little blood on his hands.

If Trump hasn't fallen yet, what makes you think he will in the next month?

Still waiting for more people to drop out but it seems like every damn one of them is holding on for dear life.
 
I don't see how this disproves my statement that trump is being supported by the conservative base

It doesn't, but it disproves your implication that only the conservative base supports him. Nominee Trump would be the only Republican who could win your state of California, how would that be if his support consists of the conservative base?

From what I've seen the hardcore ones still cling to Cruz or have started to embrace Carson.

no doubt trump has thought about what its like to bang his daughter

No, he hasn't. Only a sick mind would imagine such thoughts in the mind of a father. Some on the right made the same comments concerning Bill and Chelsea and were criticized for it, don't be like them.
 
I'd say at the very least Carly tied Rubio.

I'm still seeing a Rubio/Kasich ticket as "the one" to beat anyone the Dems put up.

Cruz didn't do bad at all. I just feel he should have cut in a lot more than he did. He seems to like to wait for the go-ahead instead of just cutting in and going for it. But also, had he been given more time, I feel he could have realy flexed his ideas and came out way ahead of where he ultimately did.



Do you see anyone dropping out before the next debate?

Hard to tell cause money factors into it too. I really wish Huckabee and the bottom tier players would get out but that's asking a lot. Perry had a poorly managed campaign cause he was assuming the same budget as 2012 and it didn't come close to that in fundraising. The others at least didn't make that mistake.
 
Republican party rallies around the establishment eventually. There is really two establishment candidates left with any viability - Rubio and Bush. I still don't believe anybody is going to actually vote for Trump or Carson - but we won't know that for a few months yet. I think Carson has already peaked and is going to quickly fade as his debate and interview questions expose him as simply not knowing much. Trump has the style and bluster but he's more the protest option right now. I discount Cruz because his whole party, outside of Sen Lee, seems to hate his guts. I do think he'll be one of the last two standing though along with one of Rubio or Bush. I think Jeb ultimately beats Rubio though because he'll have a better machine behind him and has all the connections from both his Father's and Brother's respective Presidencies.

If the nominee isn't one of Bush, Rubio or Cruz - I'll eat a bug. And of those three I think it comes down to Bush vs Cruz, and Bush wins.

Rather than argue every single point of this post, I'll just say I look forward to your comments after Bush drops out.
 
The closer we get to the election, the more I worry Trump is really going to fuck things up.

You have good reason to worry.

His base support of moderates and independents have stuck with him through all the gaffs that would ruin the career of anyone else running for President. But as the primary votes move closer, people may consider more who they're voting for could eventually be the leader of the free world.

And moving into the general, his base support would be tiny in comparison to what he would need to win. Trump has the highest negatives of anyone in either party.

Not saying he can't win the general, but he's going to be much more calculating about his choice of words.

But for the primaries, as more candidates drop out, or as more of the support of the evental losers leave to a possible winner, we'll see someone emerge from the 75% of non-Trump support. Its very possible that Trump could keep his numbers among independents and moderates, and still lose.
 


That's only the end of the quote though, I try to google things like this too.


Thanks for posting it.

So the 3 rules of quotes rings true once again (Said it to whom, when was it said, and what context). And it's probably not even a full quote. The most effective lies are the ones most schrouded in truth.
 
Donald Trump Says He’s Willing to Spend $100 Million to Win Nomination
19TRUMPweb-master675.jpg

Expressing confidence that American voters do not care if he lacks specifics, Donald J. Trump says he has yet to fully exploit his personal advantages over his Republican presidential rivals — chiefly his enormous wealth and celebrity — and that both will matter more to his political fate than debate performances like his shaky one this week.

Mr. Trump said in an interview that he was prepared to spend $100 million or more to become the Republican nominee and that most of it would go to galvanizing voter support in states with early nominating contests. While he boasted last month that he would spend $1 billion if need be, he said that a realistic amount would be far less and that he would count on the national Republican Party for financial help if he became the nominee.

Trump bails on Heritage forum in South Carolina
150918-donald-trump-ap-1160.jpg

Donald Trump unexpectedly announced Friday that he would skip a major Republican gathering to be held later in the day in South Carolina due to an unidentified “significant business transaction.”
Trump was one of 11 GOP presidential candidates slated to speak at the Heritage Action Presidential Forum at an arena in Greenville. The event is co-sponsored by two of the biggest names in South Carolina GOP politics: Gov. Nikki Haley and former Sen. Jim DeMint.
Trump’s campaign said his undisclosed transaction “was expected to close Thursday” but a delay made him unable to attend. “He sends his regrets,” the campaign said in a statement.
 
^I've been thinking who would be Trump's running mate if he did end up with the nominaton and Cruz always made a lot of sense.

I've figured there was some form of non-aggression treaty between Trump and Cruz as Trump has gone after everybody except Cruz and Cruz is always complimentary about Trump, while going after Rubio most recently - the establishment candidate making a move up at the moment.

I think it's in Cruz' best interest to keep playing nice with Trump both because he makes the most sense as his running mate, and because if Trump eventually fades I think Cruz is most likely to pick up most of his supporters. And if BushCo or Rubio launch a major attack campaign against Trump that fatally wounds his candidacy Trump would probably outright endorse Cruz. There is nothing to be gained from Cruz taking on Trump in any way. Trump isn't going to win the nomination. Problem is everybody in the field knows this and thus doesn't want to be the one to have to attack him in a major way with ads - which is probably what is needed, at least until debates get whittled down and Trump exposes himself.

Cruz has told all his staffers to read the Obama Campaign book put out by his 2008 campaign manager - and it's the model he's using, of course adapted to 2015. He's focused on ground game and delegates now and knows he'll likely blow everybody out of the water come the debates with it's down the F3-F4. That's his strategy right now - lay low, let Trump and Carson suck all the oxygen out of the primary right now, get all the press while he builds his foundation and ground game away from the spotlight.
 
Thanks for posting it.

So the 3 rules of quotes rings true once again (Said it to whom, when was it said, and what context). And it's probably not even a full quote. The most effective lies are the ones most schrouded in truth.

Apparently the full quote is real, and starts before that, but it is also pretty obviously a joke, just a weird one. There are many more realistic things to grill him on besides quote mining, though I do think he has a generally bad character.
 
Fiorina and Rubio Are the Biggest Winners — Kasich and Cruz Lose Ground
In this confusing and fascinating election cycle, I find it most useful to think about this as two races — or possibly three — not just one. The first is the race for who will be the Great Outsider candidate, leading the rebellion against Washington, D.C. Governors have traditionally vied for this role, but in this election cycle, voters seeking an outsider candidate are decisively rejecting the Scott Walkers and Chris Christies of the world in favor of the authentic article. Nothing that happened in the debate last night appears likely to change that dynamic.

The Marco Rubio-Carly Fiorina Option
My PBS colleague Mark Shields recently reminded me of the old saying that Democrats fall in love but Republicans fall in line.

Democrats have historically liked presidential nominees they can go gaga for, even if they lack experience: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy. Republicans on the other hand like to nominate the guy who’s paid his dues and already lost a presidential run: Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

So far this year, the parties have switched love languages. Democratic voters have become responsible and middle-aged, telling pollsters they want experienced pols who can work within the system. Republicans are embracing their inner adolescent.
 
Rather than argue every single point of this post, I'll just say I look forward to your comments after Bush drops out.

No worries, I'll be around. Though I'm not too married to the idea of Bush winning as something I want to see in so much as something I think will happen so I'm not too caught up emotionally in the idea. I think it's going to be Bush vs Clinton.
 
Apparently the full quote is real, and starts before that, but it is also pretty obviously a joke, just a weird one. There are many more realistic things to grill him on besides quote mining, though I do think he has a generally bad character.

I'm leaning toward him having a bad character as well. If there's proof of this, he'll be exposed long before a single primary vote has been cast.
 
Deadline day for Rand Paul
150917-rand-paul-gty-1160.jpg

Sen. Rand Paul's plan to run for president and reelection to the Senate simultaneously is officially in motion.
The Kentucky Republican transfered $250,000 to the state Republican Party on Friday afternoon, the deadline for a down payment on the tricky maneuver that could cost as much as $700,000 to engineer.
By late Friday morning, Paul still hadn't transferred the funds, despite suggesting in a letter last month that he'd already made the deposit. But Paul's campaign had insisted it would meet its deadline and has simply been engaged in last-minute fundraising. Kentucky Republican leaders repeatedly voiced confidence that money would be delivered on time — and the state party announced the transfer in a press release.
 
I'm quite certain it will be Cruz, at a recent rally he mentioned how nice Cruz has been to him.
 

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