Elections German Bundestag elections 2021: End of an era

[JDragon]

Responding here.

What's your opinion on Die Linke?

Difficult to have an opinion on them. They are the successor to the SED, they do have communist elements and they do love their Russians. At the same time, the Green party has become (or turned out to be) rather bourgeois, and the Social Democrats have masterminded the Hartz IV reforms which have been a booster for the economy but poison for social cohesion and poison for the Left. A fragment of the Social Democrats joined the PDS (direct SED successor) to create Die Linke.

In the few states where they have been in or shared power, they have not done anything radical, tbh. I think a high share of disappointed working class people have gone to the right. Also, those among Die Linke who have the proper approach (someone like Fabio di Masi, who is widely recognized for his work in the Wirecard committee) are being driven out by frustration over the lack of agility shown by their party.

The current program the Social Democrats have proposed a couple days ago makes a lot of sense, tbh. I just do not trust any of their personnel.

 

[Prex32]

my place where i live turned into a shithole in just a few years, barely to recognize anymore
sad to watch

 

[ElKarlo]

my place where i live turned into a shithole in just a few years, barely to recognize anymore
sad to watch

Where are you and what happened to make things get bad?

 

[Prex32]

Where are you and what happened to make things get bad?

i'm talking big city, an area that basically turned ghetto, previously being a quiet neat area
transition was pretty quickly and shocking
you can tell cuz after 15 years living there now you suddenly get offered things to buy*
thats just one example, not talking about the dirt everywhere
it's clear authorities lost control

 

[SanchoMF]

Whoever takes the throne will have a shakier chair than the one Merkel initially inherited.
Different realities today.

 

[ElKarlo]

i'm talking big city, an area that basically turned ghetto, previously being a quiet neat area
transition was pretty quickly and shocking
you can tell cuz after 15 years living there now you suddenly get offered things to buy*
thats just one example, not talking about the dirt everywhere
it's clear authorities lost control

Ok. Would like more details. Like what actually happened. Or who caused it or why do you think it happened

 

[Trotsky]

Responding here.


Difficult to have an opinion on them. They are the successor to the SED, they do have communist elements and they do love their Russians. At the same time, the Green party has become (or turned out to be) rather bourgeois, and the Social Democrats have masterminded the Hartz IV reforms which have been a booster for the economy but poison for social cohesion and poison for the Left. A fragment of the Social Democrats joined the PDS (direct SED successor) to create Die Linke.

In the few states where they have been in or shared power, they have not done anything radical, tbh. I think a high share of disappointed working class people have gone to the right. Also, those among Die Linke who have the proper approach (someone like Fabio di Masi, who is widely recognized for his work in the Wirecard committee) are being driven out by frustration over the lack of agility shown by their party.

The current program the Social Democrats have proposed a couple days ago makes a lot of sense, tbh. I just do not trust any of their personnel.

Thanks. It always baffles me how left parties hamstring themselves with austerity packages.

You're a very good writer, by the way. Especially for someone writing in their second language.

 

[Prex32]

Thanks. It always baffles me how left parties hamstring themselves with austerity packages.

You're a very good writer, by the way. Especially for someone writing in their second language.

he doesn't get paid for nothing ;-)

 

[JDragon]

The CDU/CSU have a problem, and it appears to be corruption. Two of their MPs got exposed for lobbying for Azerbaijan in exchange for money. Two others just got exposed for taking 'provisions' of 250k Euro for some mask deals during the pandemic. One further case rumored.

 

[JDragon]

Thread is in dire need of an update.

So last week, two key state elections happened in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

Heavy losses for the AfD, maybe not surprising because the 2016 key topic (migration) was a lot less in focus. But also, the CDU incurred brutal losses. Especially the fact that they were without a chance in Baden-Württemberg must sting, as this was always their home base and as recent as 15 years ago, no one could have imagined this would happen. But it did, the very pragmatic Green party (smartly backing the automotive industry here) did a fair job and even a majority of CDU voters preferred the incumbent Kretschmann (Greens) over their own candidate (question: if there was a direct election of state MP,...):



But there are reasons this crisis runs deep. I will get to that in a minute. The key news items for the fall elections are:

(1) recent polls show the CDU below 30%
(2) this means that now majorities against / without the CDU are possible

Take Baden-Württemberg. The Greens convincingly won, but while the continuation of the coalition with the CDU seems likely, the CDU lost so bad that a coalition between the Greens, the Social Democrats and the Liberal Party/FDP (actually a fairly conservative party on economic / money transfer issues) is now theoretically possible. Similar things might happen on federal level.

Back to the reasons. Obviously, people don't take too kindly to seeing Serbia, Chile, and the UK completely outperforming us in terms of combating the pandemic and vaccinating the population. They correctly attriibute blame. To the CDU. The CDU candidate in Baden-Württemberg, Susanne Eisenmann, also was pretty weak and heavily pushed for opening schools at a point where cases were escalating.

But what's much worse is that there is a perception of CDU MPs being corrupt. The following examples (non-comprehensive list) have been reported in the past weeks:

(1) Karin Strenz. Received money to lobby for Azerbaidjan. Died today on a flight on her way back from Cuba (unclear so far whether she was vacationing there).
(2) Nikolas Löbel. Received 250k Euro commission payment for a mask acquisition deal during the first wave.
(3) Georg Nüßlein (from the Bavarian sister party CSU) Received 650k Euro provision for a similar deal.
(4) Alfred Sauter (CSU, member of Bavarian state parliament) - received 1.2 Million Euro for facilitating a mask deal as a lawyer

Just the tip of the iceberg, honestly. 4-5 further MPs are under scrutiny right now. In some cases there may be criminal implications of their behaviour, but in any case, the optics are brutal.

Couple that with the fact that the apparent chancellor candidate (Armin Laschet) is super unpopular, and you have a mixture that the opposition could capitalize on if they get their shit together.

 

[Oceanmachine]

Thread is in dire need of an update.

So last week, two key state elections happened in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

Heavy losses for the AfD, maybe not surprising because the 2016 key topic (migration) was a lot less in focus. But also, the CDU incurred brutal losses. Especially the fact that they were without a chance in Baden-Württemberg must sting, as this was always their home base and as recent as 15 years ago, no one could have imagined this would happen. But it did, the very pragmatic Green party (smartly backing the automotive industry here) did a fair job and even a majority of CDU voters preferred the incumbent Kretschmann (Greens) over their own candidate (question: if there was a direct election of state MP,...):



But there are reasons this crisis runs deep. I will get to that in a minute. The key news items for the fall elections are:

(1) recent polls show the CDU below 30%
(2) this means that now majorities against / without the CDU are possible

Take Baden-Württemberg. The Greens convincingly won, but while the continuation of the coalition with the CDU seems likely, the CDU lost so bad that a coalition between the Greens, the Social Democrats and the Liberal Party/FDP (actually a fairly conservative party on economic / money transfer issues) is now theoretically possible. Similar things might happen on federal level.

Back to the reasons. Obviously, people don't take too kindly to seeing Serbia, Chile, and the UK completely outperforming us in terms of combating the pandemic and vaccinating the population. They correctly attriibute blame. To the CDU. The CDU candidate in Baden-Württemberg, Susanne Eisenmann, also was pretty weak and heavily pushed for opening schools at a point where cases were escalating.

But what's much worse is that there is a perception of CDU MPs being corrupt. The following examples (non-comprehensive list) have been reported in the past weeks:

(1) Karin Strenz. Received money to lobby for Azerbaidjan. Died today on a flight on her way back from Cuba (unclear so far whether she was vacationing there).
(2) Nikolas Löbel. Received 250k Euro commission payment for a mask acquisition deal during the first wave.
(3) Georg Nüßlein (from the Bavarian sister party CSU) Received 650k Euro provision for a similar deal.
(4) Alfred Sauter (CSU, member of Bavarian state parliament) - received 1.2 Million Euro for facilitating a mask deal as a lawyer

Just the tip of the iceberg, honestly. 4-5 further MPs are under scrutiny right now. In some cases there may be criminal implications of their behaviour, but in any case, the optics are brutal.

Couple that with the fact that the apparent chancellor candidate (Armin Laschet) is super unpopular, and you have a mixture that the opposition could capitalize on if they get their shit together.

Yes this is a shake up. What are your predictions now?

 

[JDragon]

Yes this is a shake up. What are your predictions now?

Current polling:

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Click pollster name at the top to see past numbers. The CDU/CSU lost about 9-10% in the past six weeks.

Hard to predict right now. A lot is dependent on a number of factors:

• What power option will the Green Party go for? Green/Social Democrats/Die Linke (leftist option) could give them the chancellor's office in theory.
• Who will be the CDU/CSU nominee? (they should go for Söder)
• Is the CDU/CSU already at the bottom? (I think not)
• Can we save the vaccination campaign and get it done by summer?

 

[JDragon]

Brand new poll:

In einer exklusiven Insa-Umfrage für BILD (1042 Teilnehmer) sagen 19,4 Prozent der Befragten, sie würden „wegen“ Söder die Union wählen. Aber: 27 Prozent sagen, sie würden „wegen Söder“ als Kanzlerkandidat nicht die Union wählen.

Bei Armin Laschet sind es nur 7,1 Prozent, die seinetwegen das Kreuz bei der Union machen würden. 40,5 Prozent der Befragten würden im Falle von Laschets Kanzlerkandidatur nicht die Union wählen.

I.e. 19% would vote CDU/CSU if Söder is candidate (who would not have done it otherwise)
27% will not vote CDU/CSU if Söder is candidate (who would have done it otherwise)

However, at the same time,

7% would vote CDU/CSU if Laschet is the candidate (who otherwise would not have)
40% would not vote CDU/CSU who otherwise would have

 

[milenss]

It's time for AfD to overturn all the damage Merkel did.
Now we need 16 years of AfD.

 

[JDragon]

"If Bundestag elections were next Sunday, which party would you vote for?"

Also here again note that we do not elect the chancellor. The chancellor is elected by the Bundestag.

Current favorability ratings (on a scale from minus 5 to plus 5):

Söder 1.2
Laschet 0.1

among CDU/CSU supporters:

Söder 3.3
Laschet 1.4

 

[Prex32]

lol polling
i'm sure these are as accurate as cnn polls

 

[hitcher]

Thread is in dire need of an update.

So last week, two key state elections happened in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

Heavy losses for the AfD, maybe not surprising because the 2016 key topic (migration) was a lot less in focus. But also, the CDU incurred brutal losses. Especially the fact that they were without a chance in Baden-Württemberg must sting, as this was always their home base and as recent as 15 years ago, no one could have imagined this would happen. But it did, the very pragmatic Green party (smartly backing the automotive industry here) did a fair job and even a majority of CDU voters preferred the incumbent Kretschmann (Greens) over their own candidate (question: if there was a direct election of state MP,...):



But there are reasons this crisis runs deep. I will get to that in a minute. The key news items for the fall elections are:

(1) recent polls show the CDU below 30%
(2) this means that now majorities against / without the CDU are possible

Take Baden-Württemberg. The Greens convincingly won, but while the continuation of the coalition with the CDU seems likely, the CDU lost so bad that a coalition between the Greens, the Social Democrats and the Liberal Party/FDP (actually a fairly conservative party on economic / money transfer issues) is now theoretically possible. Similar things might happen on federal level.

Back to the reasons. Obviously, people don't take too kindly to seeing Serbia, Chile, and the UK completely outperforming us in terms of combating the pandemic and vaccinating the population. They correctly attriibute blame. To the CDU. The CDU candidate in Baden-Württemberg, Susanne Eisenmann, also was pretty weak and heavily pushed for opening schools at a point where cases were escalating.

But what's much worse is that there is a perception of CDU MPs being corrupt. The following examples (non-comprehensive list) have been reported in the past weeks:

(1) Karin Strenz. Received money to lobby for Azerbaidjan. Died today on a flight on her way back from Cuba (unclear so far whether she was vacationing there).
(2) Nikolas Löbel. Received 250k Euro commission payment for a mask acquisition deal during the first wave.
(3) Georg Nüßlein (from the Bavarian sister party CSU) Received 650k Euro provision for a similar deal.
(4) Alfred Sauter (CSU, member of Bavarian state parliament) - received 1.2 Million Euro for facilitating a mask deal as a lawyer

Just the tip of the iceberg, honestly. 4-5 further MPs are under scrutiny right now. In some cases there may be criminal implications of their behaviour, but in any case, the optics are brutal.

Couple that with the fact that the apparent chancellor candidate (Armin Laschet) is super unpopular, and you have a mixture that the opposition could capitalize on if they get their shit together.

Good summary, I would like to have seen the „scandal“ surrounding Jens Spahn (German Health Minister) and the Company his Husband works for. A Company that had nothing to do with Masks all of a sudden sold Masks for roughly 900k to Spahns ministry. So far no wrongdoing could be proven and the company (Burda) has denied making money on that deal nor was Spahns husband involved in the Deal.

 

[JDragon]

Short update. The Söder vs Laschet candidate duel for the Christian Democrats has dramatically picked up pace. Söder is overwhelmingly favored in the populace and also the party base of both CSU and CDU. Laschet still has the leadership support of his party. While Söder has little to lose (he could simply stay MP in Bavaria), Laschet's position as CDU leader would already be very weak only after few months if he has to give in.

Formally, the party will make the call, but lots of MPs afraid of losing their seat in the elections if Söder is not nominated are calling for a vote among Bundestag CDU/CSU MPs.

 

[JDragon]

Short update. The Söder vs Laschet candidate duel for the Christian Democrats has dramatically picked up pace. Söder is overwhelmingly favored in the populace and also the party base of both CSU and CDU. Laschet still has the leadership support of his party. While Söder has little to lose (he could simply stay MP in Bavaria), Laschet's position as CDU leader would already be very weak only after few months if he has to give in.

Formally, the party will make the call, but lots of MPs afraid of losing their seat in the elections if Söder is not nominated are calling for a vote among Bundestag CDU/CSU MPs.

Despite the overwhelming majority of people favoring Söder, the CDU party leadership has now enforced a vote in favor of Laschet. I expect this will cost them a lot of votes as people were willing to campaign for Söder. I don't think the same is true for Laschet.

Meanwhile, the 20% polling Green party has nominated Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor candidate.

 

[BroRogan]

Not sure what's worse to be honest <45>not sure if I'm even going to vote this time

Accurate