General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[Pappetta]

Placed a few bets on this week's KSW.
Romanowski should outpace and outgrind Rakas,who's wins were mostly against fighters with losing records.I took him at 1,61 but you can still get him at 1,55 at some bookies.
Soldic is a lock,Kincl is not on his level 1,30 ML and 1,66 ITD should easily go through.
Stošić should also go through Andryszak,he is low volume though,but has been running through this KSW heavies with power and Andryszak is keen on getting hit.I'm pretty confident in those three.

I have to agree, at first glance I was thinking that Kincl at +300 range had some value, but do not think that anymore. Kincl will go to this fight probably with solid game plan, but his training camp was just in his local gym + in Poland, while for some other fights he was preparing in ATT.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Thoughts on some future lines:

Carlston Harris +155 against Kasanganay is an absolute steal. Should be even at worst.
Maness +152 against Gravely is insanity. Should be even at worst.
Nchukwi over Rodriguez at -110 has value
Pennington over Kianzad -110 has value

 

[Bakayoko]

I have to agree, at first glance I was thinking that Kincl at +300 range had some value, but do not think that anymore. Kincl will go to this fight probably with solid game plan, but his training camp was just in his local gym + in Poland, while for some other fights he was preparing in ATT.

Kincl is solid and has been on a nice run himself but Soldic has cleaned the divison easy and Kincl is a good match up,unless he gets in completely off it should be a wrap

 

[Bakayoko]

Placed a few bets on this week's KSW.
Romanowski should outpace and outgrind Rakas,who's wins were mostly against fighters with losing records.I took him at 1,61 but you can still get him at 1,55 at some bookies.
Soldic is a lock,Kincl is not on his level 1,30 ML and 1,66 ITD should easily go through.
Stošić should also go through Andryszak,he is low volume though,but has been running through this KSW heavies with power and Andryszak is keen on getting hit.I'm pretty confident in those three.

KSW cashed in!

 

[EndlessCritic]

Some recent lines:

Leo Santos +140 all day over hernandez
Casey O'neill at -225 against Shevchenko has value

 

[Red_2]

Nobody taking Haqparast v Hooker at underdog odds?

Feel like he's a more clinical striker compared to Hooker. Though hangman is no slouch striking wise but the damage he's been taking in the last 2 years has already caught up to him. I think he's not long for this sport and this is a tough matchup for him.

Shit they should have put him and Tony against each other, same trajectory. Coming off of losses, both look like they're deteriorating quickly.

 

[rille31]

Some recent lines:

Casey O'neill at -225 against Shevchenko has value

I see zero value in Casey as a farely large favourite, propably some value in Schev as large underdog
Casey faced some pretty weak opposition, has the ground advantage but will she be able to take Shev down?

Shev could win this standing or even land takedowns and win from top position.
She also faced the much better cop.

I favour Oneil but not by much.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I see zero value in Casey as a farely large favourite, propably some value in Schev as large underdog
Casey faced some pretty weak opposition, has the ground advantage but will she be able to take Shev down?

Shev could win this standing or even land takedowns and win from top position.
She also faced the much better cop.

I favour Oneil but not by much.

Procopio is an extremely strong grappler who dominated Mccann for 15 minutes. O'Neill's win over her is objectively impressive.

Shevchenko's takedown defence is horrifyingly bad. She was completely dominated by Chookagian and Lee. O'Neill has the tools to do the exact same, plus plenty of other ways to win this fight.

O'Neill should be -300 here.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Volkanovski -160, and I was expecting him to be -200?

Is there something I'm missing about Ortega? Because if not there's value to there me on the favorite line to bet.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Volkanovski -160, and I was expecting him to be -200?

Is there something I'm missing about Ortega? Because if not there's value to there me on the favorite line to bet.

Did you miss his fight with zombie?

 

[HockeyBjj]

Did you miss his fight with zombie?

I’ll watch it again before putting a bet down, but I’ve always felt Zombie was over rated. So looking good against Zombie doesn’t move the needle for me much.

Zombie is a well deserved fan favorite for good reason, but I don’t see him as close to contend for a belt level

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I’ll watch it again before putting a bet down, but I’ve always felt Zombie was over rated. So looking good against Zombie doesn’t move the needle for me much.

Zombie is a well deserved fan favorite for good reason, but I don’t see him as close to contend for a belt level

ortega looked like a completely different fighter in there. Drastic improvements. That was after 1 full camp at black house

No way I would bet against him paying Volks prices.

I’m actually on Ortega at around +165

 

[HockeyBjj]

ortega looked like a completely different fighter in there. Drastic improvements. That was after 1 full camp at black house

No way I would bet against him paying Volks prices.

I’m actually on Ortega at around +165

Appreciate the feedback. I'll give a watch again

 

[ExitLUPin]

Not MMA but featuring 2 MMA fighters

Anderson +200 to win by decision against Tito feels like stealing

Titos giant head is gonna be tough to stop. Best shot is prolly to the body and a bad weight cut for Tito but Andy is 46yo and fighters dont really finish fights at this point in their careers

 

[XociDe]

Anyone think Rockhold should definitely beat Strickland?

Rockhold still has elite skills. He got KO'd by Yoel and the LHW champ who turned out to be a lot better than anyone thought. He has taken some good time off and judging by his instagram, stayed in shape and was training the whole time.

Strickland has good boxing and pressure. He stands extremely tall and square. Rockhold could and probably should look to take him down and maul him on the ground.

I think the odds are way off.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Anyone think Rockhold should definitely beat Strickland?

Rockhold still has elite skills. He got KO'd by Yoel and the LHW champ who turned out to be a lot better than anyone thought. He has taken some good time off and judging by his instagram, stayed in shape and was training the whole time.

Strickland has good boxing and pressure. He stands extremely tall and square. Rockhold could and probably should look to take him down and maul him on the ground.

I think the odds are way off.

He could potentially look dominant. He will need better cardio than when he was bloated vs Jan. However time off, and that chin are already two redflags, and if his ego is still too big thats another redflag. Strickland has been looking very sharp, nothing special but very solid basics and good pressure. It could look like the line was mostly based on recency bias in hindsight if Rockhold performs well, but currently leaning towards passing. We have however seen both Ortega and Tate who took time off come back looking better than ever, and Rockhold may do the same. The KO is just always there though, and he will need cardio to take Strickland down, which we know declines with age and many fighters wrestles and grapples less the older they are.

 

[XociDe]

He could potentially look dominant. He will need better cardio than when he was bloated vs Jan. However time off, and that chin are already two redflags, and if his ego is still too big thats another redflag. Strickland has been looking very sharp, nothing special but very solid basics and good pressure. It could look like the line was mostly based on recency bias in hindsight if Rockhold performs well, but currently leaning towards passing. We have however seen both Ortega and Tate who took time off come back looking better than ever, and Rockhold may do the same. The KO is just always there though, and he will need cardio to take Strickland down, which we know declines with age and many fighters wrestles and grapples less the older they are.

I mean it's only a 3 round fight. We won't see a Rockhold in his prime but he was a top of the food chain fighter at one point, and Strickland has no outstanding attributes and has been crushing cans so far since his comeback. It's easy to look impressive against subpar fighters. The difference in class is usually very evident when someone like that steps up into the upper echelons. I still think Rockhold has the skill.

I expected Strickland to beat Uriah Hall easily so I don't have any bias against him.

You're right in that it could look like easy money and very obvious in hindsight, or Rockhold could look very washed and lose. Judging by his insta videos, he is still moving well and looks good imo. I mean he's 37 next month, not 42. The time off will have helped more than hurt I think.

Kicks to the body/head and straight left should be there all day for Rockhold. I don't think it's close on the ground.

I dunno, I think this one will annoy me too much if I don't play it and then Rockhold outclasses him.

 

[sonhow]

I mean it's only a 3 round fight. We won't see a Rockhold in his prime but he was a top of the food chain fighter at one point, and Strickland has no outstanding attributes and has been crushing cans so far since his comeback. It's easy to look impressive against subpar fighters. The difference in class is usually very evident when someone like that steps up into the upper echelons. I still think Rockhold has the skill.

I expected Strickland to beat Uriah Hall easily so I don't have any bias against him.

You're right in that it could look like easy money and very obvious in hindsight, or Rockhold could look very washed and lose. Judging by his insta videos, he is still moving well and looks good imo. I mean he's 37 next month, not 42. The time off will have helped more than hurt I think.

Kicks to the body/head and straight left should be there all day for Rockhold. I don't think it's close on the ground.

I dunno, I think this one will annoy me too much if I don't play it and then Rockhold outclasses him.

I wouldn't dare to call Allen or Hall cans. Hall still has very much positive ufc record and Allen hasn't lost to any other man but Strickland in the ufc.
Rockhold can win if he manages to get on top. I think he can pretty much beat anyone on the ground but his takedowns haven't been looking too amazing lately and he has some holes standing and has been cracked multiple times. Sean might just need to crack him few times to take over.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Thoughts on some future lines:

Carlston Harris +155 against Kasanganay is an absolute steal. Should be even at worst.
Maness +152 against Gravely is insanity. Should be even at worst.
Nchukwi over Rodriguez at -110 has value
Pennington over Kianzad -110 has value

Great calls I was on Carlton as well

 

[svmr_db]

What do you guys think the odds would be if they end up making the Rakic / Smith rematch? Rakic was -230 in the first fight and looked levels better.

I think Rakic -350 / 400 opening sounds about right, it's LHW so I don't think the Rakic odds would balloon out of control and also there may be a little bit of respect given to Smith for how much better he has looked in his last few performances.