General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[svmr_db]

Ciryl Gane now favored to defeat Francis Ngannou

The line opened at -190 Ngannou, +165 Gane and now he is favored at -140 after tonight's victory over Derrick Lewis.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Ciryl-Gane-9273

 

[Deleted member 581330]

Ciryl Gane now favored to defeat Francis Ngannou

The line opened at -190 Ngannou, +165 Gane and now he is favored at -140 after tonight's victory over Derrick Lewis.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Ciryl-Gane-9273

People really had to see Gane beat down Derrick Lewis to completely flip flop their opinion on Ngannou vs Gane? God, people are so fickle. Gane vs Lewis literally brought 0 new information that could not already be deduced before. This gives me new confidence in beating this system looking at how easily bettors can be swayed.

 

[mkess101]

People really had to see Gane beat down Derrick Lewis to completely flip flop their opinion on Ngannou vs Gane? God, people are so fickle. Gane vs Lewis literally brought 0 new information that could not already be deduced before. This gives me new confidence in beating this system looking at how easily bettors can be swayed.

It's always that way. If the line was set just prior to Ngannou knocking out Stipe, you'd see a big swing the other direction. Recency bias is real and can absolutely be exploited.

 

[svmr_db]

What do you guys think the odds will be for the remaining fights for the Bellator Light Heavyweight Grand Prix?

I think Vadim Nemkov will be a pretty decent favorite over Rumble, maybe open in the -250 / 300 range.

Corey Anderson vs Ryan Bader I expect to be close to a pick em, maybe Bader opens at like -140 just with respect to his championship run + only losing once in the last 5 years. Very winnable fight for Corey though, I think he'll have the cardio advantage but he's also more likely to get KO'd with his questionable chin.

 

[Broe.]

It's always that way. If the line was set just prior to Ngannou knocking out Stipe, you'd see a big swing the other direction. Recency bias is real and can absolutely be exploited.

Well also people are now just looking at that fight more closely now that the fight is probably gonna happen soon. I also just looked at the line while before the Lewis fight I didn't notice it. It is not all recency bias.

 

[mkess101]

Well also people are now just looking at that fight more closely now that the fight is probably gonna happen soon. I also just looked at the line while before the Lewis fight I didn't notice it. It is not all recency bias.

That's true too. For sure it's a combination of things.

 

[Monster Meat]

I’m liking that +150 for Ortega over volk.

 

[svmr_db]

I’m liking that +150 for Ortega over volk.

What do you see as Ortega's path to victory? I think Volk will outmuscle Ortega in the grappling, neutralize any submission attempts, and Volk is a very hard guy to win rounds against.

 

[Monster Meat]

What do you see as Ortega's path to victory? I think Volk will outmuscle Ortega in the grappling, neutralize any submission attempts, and Volk is a very hard guy to win rounds against.

Volk is very solid no doubt but I just think Ortega has the edge on standup and while volk has solid takedown defense if Ortega can get him down he is dangerous on the ground. Volk def grinds out rounds but lately he has gotten the benefit of some close decisions (granted they were against halloway.) I think it’s a close fight either way and like the value of Ortega at +150.

 

[mkess101]

I like Ortega at these odds too. His striking literally looked EONS better vs KZ than previously. I think he stopped f'ing around thinking he could just find a random finish and started perfecting his craft. It sounds silly, but I think him shaving his head prior to the KZ fight was symbolic of him reinventing himself.

And if Volk wants to wrestle he's playing with fire given how crafty T City is with his subs.

 

[svmr_db]

 

[ExitLUPin]

Volk is very solid no doubt but I just think Ortega has the edge on standup and while volk has solid takedown defense if Ortega can get him down he is dangerous on the ground. Volk def grinds out rounds but lately he has gotten the benefit of some close decisions (granted they were against halloway.) I think it’s a close fight either way and like the value of Ortega at +150.

Lately hes gotten the benefit of some close decisions? Huh? Literally only the Max rematch was close. The first Max fight wasnt a close decision at all. Volk very easily won and i say this as a Max stan. He also beat Aldo easily altho Jose weirdly didnt do much that fight and it was underwhelming from both. His other decisions were dominant with 10-8s.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Diaz +285?

Recency bias on Dustin, shiiiiiieeeeet

 

[svmr_db]

Diaz +285?

Recency bias on Dustin, shiiiiiieeeeet

Ehhh the fight is probably never getting booked anyways lol

 

[Monster Meat]

Lately hes gotten the benefit of some close decisions? Huh? Literally only the Max rematch was close. The first Max fight wasnt a close decision at all. Volk very easily won and i say this as a Max stan. He also beat Aldo easily altho Jose weirdly didnt do much that fight and it was underwhelming from both. His other decisions were dominant with 10-8s.

yes I believe both max fights were close and arguably max won both.

 

['Suga Daddy']

yes I believe both max fights were close and arguably max won both.

You can’t actually have scored the first for max? If so that’s awful judging man

 

[Monster Meat]

You can’t actually have scored the first for max? If so that’s awful judging man

I may have been drunk and bet max big so could have played into it haha but really I thought it was close

 

['Suga Daddy']

I may have been drunk and bet max big so could have played into it haha but really I thought it was close

That’s a little more fair but I’m a massive max fan and was just crushed watching it, knew he wasn’t gonna win barely gave him 1 round

 

[EndlessCritic]

Thoughts on some future lines:

Magomed Anakalaev is currently -300 over Oezdemir. That makes zero sense. Ankalaev should be at most -200 here.

How is Pimblett only -120 against Vendramini? I'm expecting Pimblett to end up -200 here.

Happily taking Roxanne at +265 against Santos.

Happily taking Marlon Moraes +170 against Merab.

Omar Morales should be a much bigger favorite than -170 against Jonathan Pearce.

Mayra Bueno Silva is currently +210 against Fiorot. I get the Fiorot hype, but my personal assessment of this fight is much closer to even. With this said, I would not be surprised if more money comes in on Fiorot, so I'm going to hold off betting Silva right now.

Should Nick Maximov really be favored over Roberson? +odds on Roberson feels like a play. Maximov is too unproven, and Roberson has been fighting very high level guys.



I really need to get back to hammering these early lines. I used to be a legend on this site from 2011-2013... and now it's as if nobody remembers...

 

[Bakayoko]

Thoughts on some future lines:

Magomed Anakalaev is currently -300 over Oezdemir. That makes zero sense. Ankalaev should be at most -200 here.

How is Pimblett only -120 against Vendramini? I'm expecting Pimblett to end up -200 here.

Happily taking Roxanne at +265 against Santos.

Happily taking Marlon Moraes +170 against Merab.

Omar Morales should be a much bigger favorite than -170 against Jonathan Pearce.

Mayra Bueno Silva is currently +210 against Fiorot. I get the Fiorot hype, but my personal assessment of this fight is much closer to even. With this said, I would not be surprised if more money comes in on Fiorot, so I'm going to hold off betting Silva right now.

Should Nick Maximov really be favored over Roberson? +odds on Roberson feels like a play. Maximov is too unproven, and Roberson has been fighting very high level guys.



I really need to get back to hammering these early lines. I used to be a legend on this site from 2011-2013... and now it's as if nobody remembers...

Ankalaev Line is off definitely,Volkan is tough,he managed to pull out a win against Rakic also,I got to take a little stab at him.
Agree with you on Pimblett,he should be more of a favorite.
I wouldn't touch Moraes though,I was hoping to get more on Merab as I think he's got this,I think I'll pass now,won't take Moraes as he is R1 KO or fade probably so no play for me now.
I have too little knowledge of those women to comment on that.
I took Pavlovich against Aspinall at 2.40,aldo he didn't fight for some time I think it should be more like even odds.