General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[mkess101]

Let me preface this by saying I like you a lot; you're one of my favorite posters here.

And it's also why I bothered responding to you in the first place instead of chuckling, shaking my head, and moving on. However, this type of vague, fuzzy thinking, Wikicapping whataboutism is beneath you. It's a generic post from the heavies, and I know you're much, much smarter than that.

Your Jones comparison is especially nonsensical. Jones NEVER made a crazy jump in fighter quality like going from a badly concussed GM3 (he had been brutally KO'd by Heinisch only 3 months prior, the type of knockout where guys normally wait 6+ months before competing again) to arguably the 2nd best fighter in the world at that weight. Bader to Shogun, even back then, was nowhere near what we're discussing here.

The "who has Edwards ever beat?" talk is also silly. The same RDA you devalue is the very same RDA who is still arguably the best win of Colby Covington's career. And lest we forget, Colby won that by the skin of his teeth, 3 rounds to 2.

So is Colby Covington "overrated", too? Gee, considering he was 2-2 against Usman going into the last round, that sure doesn't reflect well on the champion, now does it?

Great! In true Sherdog fashion, we've now established that EVERYONE is overrated!

Funnily enough, there are a few recent examples I can think of where an up-and-coming prospect suddenly challenged a top contender. Greg Hardy went from barely beating Ben Sosoli with the help of an inhaler to challenging Alexander Volkov 3 weeks later.

It's heavyweight so one one punch can change everything and Volkov has been susceptible to losing that way before (Minakov, Lewis, even being knocked down and badly hurt by Tim Johnson, who deserved to win that fight), AND wasn't as highly ranked or skilled as Edwards is.

Still, Volkov was a considerable favorite, and I bet the absolute shit out of him at -250 and wish I had gone even heavier than THAT.

Here, yes, Chimaev is more talented, but so is his opponent, there is less worry about one punch knockouts, AND I'm getting his opponent at plus odds instead of -250?!?!

Again, anything can happen in a fight, but in what world is that NOT major value? If you can't put down a big play there, what kind of perfect slam-dunk spot CAN you put a large wager down on?

Well first of all, don't worry, I'm not taking any offense with you vehemently disagreeing. Don't worry about that, even smart people who know what they are seeing can look at the same thing sometimes and disagree. So on that aspect, we are all good man.

To your points: Agreed, the jump from GM3 to Edwards is bigger than the jump from Bader to Shogun. BUT, Jones was also a bigger favorite. People were laying -200 and higher on Jones by fight time iirc.

I thought Colby won 4 of the 5 rounds btw, even though 2 judges disagreed. The fight wasn't really al that close, with Colby getting 3 clear rounds, RDA 1, and one being pretty even. But no, Colby isn't overrated. And RDA is obviously a really good fighter, but as I said (evidenced by how easily Chiesa handled him) is undersized at 170. He simply gets bullied by bigger guys at the weight. Usman, Colby, Leon, Chiesa. Notice a pattern? All 4 used the same strategy to beat him. Bully, clinch, TD, top control.

The Hardy comparison...jeez. I mean, we had already seen Hardy show seriously flaws vs Alan Crowder of all people. He was gassing and looked terrible and resorted to an illegal strike. Against...Crowder. Chimaev has fought Alan Crowder-esque equivalents at WW yes, but he's looked nothing short of utterly dominating for EVERY SECOND against them. There's a massive difference between anything Hardy had shown (aside from power) to what Chimaev has shown.

I wish you the best of luck of course (along with other guys who are gonna put massive amounts on Edwards). I don't think playing Edwards at + odds is a bad play, which I said before. My opinion is that if you like Edwards, making a smaller play and seeing what rd 1 looks like before live betting makes sense. If as you say "Nothing Chimaev is doing is working" on Leon, you can probably then make a much bigger play on Leon still at okay odds (maybe not +, but probably not paying big juice either). And if Chimaev does end up being as special as some of us think he might be and running through Leon, it's a smaller loss. Just my view, I could be wrong like with any other fight.

Edit: Want to add something. As far as the way I got to this view, it's not about "wikicapping" or any of the other stuff you mentioned. I used the Jones example because I'm trying to convey that as someone who's followed the sport for 22 years, trained, fought, and generally just has been around it, there are certain guys who just seem to have "it". I don't think it too often. Jones was for sure one as he was coming up. I had seen Silva in Pride and thought he was good, but when he first came to the UFC I remember seeing him dismantle Leben and thought "Oh damn...that guy is SPECIAL". It's pretty rare I see guys a bit earlier on in their careers and think that based on their skillset. I'm not fully sold on Chimaev like that, but I'm pretty damn impressed. He's on the verge to me. Call it just the eye test. To be fair, I had some similar feelings about Aaron Pico and was wrong. So it's not like I call these type guys right every time. But I've been right way more than I've been wrong over the years.

 

[theTKDguy]

I feel the first couple of rounds are gonna be tough for leon, but if he gets through i expect chimaev to gas. Lb might be a good option here.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I thought Colby won 4 of the 5 rounds btw, even though 2 judges disagreed. The fight wasn't really al that close, with Colby getting 3 clear rounds, RDA 1, and one being pretty even. But no, Colby isn't overrated. And RDA is obviously a really good fighter, but as I said (evidenced by how easily Chiesa handled him) is undersized at 170. He simply gets bullied by bigger guys at the weight. Usman, Colby, Leon, Chiesa. Notice a pattern? All 4 used the same strategy to beat him. Bully, clinch, TD, top control.

But the way those 4 guys beat RDA was different. Usman and Chiesa did it almost exclusively through grappling. Colby actually stood up with RDA for long periods of time, so with him, it was more of a mix.

With Edwards, although he did have a moderate grappling advantage, he mostly beat him standing, which is a noticeable difference from the other three.

The Hardy comparison...jeez. I mean, we had already seen Hardy show seriously flaws vs Alan Crowder of all people. He was gassing and looked terrible and resorted to an illegal strike. Against...Crowder. Chimaev has fought Alan Crowder-esque equivalents at WW yes, but he's looked nothing short of utterly dominating for EVERY SECOND against them. There's a massive difference between anything Hardy had shown (aside from power) to what Chimaev has shown.

This is just the difference in skill level between welterweight and heavy, though. I could similarly point out how much more ridiculously skilled and well-rounded Leon Edwards is than my countryman Volkov.

I used the Jones example because I'm trying to convey that as someone who's followed the sport for 22 years, trained, fought, and generally just has been around it, there are certain guys who just seem to have "it". I don't think it too often.

I've been following, training, and around the sport for 25 years myself, although I've never had an amateur fight like you.

But here's the thing. I freely admit that a great many of the guys who have seriously impressed me over the years coming up the ranks ended up disappointing, beginning with Pedro Rizzo. (Yes, his flaws are obvious in hindsight nowadays, especially with our expanded knowledge of fighting)

And the number of times those dynamite prospects ended up succeeding when thrown in too soon against the very, very best is rare, even when those prospects ended up being great.

Tito Ortiz lost to Frank Shamrock despite a huge advantage in size (15-20 pounds). Rampage Jackson lost to Sakuraba despite a similarly large advantage in size and strength. Wanderlei Silva lost to a more seasoned Belfort when he would have killed him a few years later.

And of course, none of those involved a jump as crazy (especially given how thin MMA was on talent then) or an opponent as good as Edwards.

 

[mkess101]

But the way those 4 guys beat RDA was different. Usman and Chiesa did it almost exclusively through grappling. Colby actually stood up with RDA for long periods of time, so with him, it was more of a mix.

With Edwards, although he did have a moderate grappling advantage, he mostly beat him standing, which is a noticeable difference from the other three.



This is just the difference in skill level between welterweight and heavy, though. I could similarly point out how much more ridiculously skilled and well-rounded Leon Edwards is than my countryman Volkov.



I've been following, training, and around the sport for 25 years myself, although I've never had an amateur fight like you.

But here's the thing. I freely admit that a great many of the guys who have seriously impressed me over the years coming up the ranks ended up disappointing, beginning with Pedro Rizzo. (Yes, his flaws are obvious in hindsight nowadays, especially with our expanded knowledge of fighting)

And the number of times those dynamite prospects ended up succeeding when thrown in too soon against the very, very best is rare, even when those prospects ended up being great.

Tito Ortiz lost to Frank Shamrock despite a huge advantage in size (15-20 pounds). Rampage Jackson lost to Sakuraba despite a similarly large advantage in size and strength. Wanderlei Silva lost to a more seasoned Belfort when he would have killed him a few years later.

And of course, none of those involved a jump as crazy (especially given how thin MMA was on talent then) or an opponent as good as Edwards.

Those are fair points, but part of the evolution of MMA is that those examples you listed earlier were in more the infancy of MMA. Someone like Chimaev is likely surrounded every day by world champs and elite guys who educate and push him. There's just more education with prospects these days.

Edwards did win a lot with standup vs RDA (Colby did his usual mix) but the fact that both did put RDA on his back and showed he was no threat to them there obviously affects the striking game too. RDA just can't let his hands go as much against bigger WW grapplers when he's worried about ending up in his back.

 

[mkess101]

I feel the first couple of rounds are gonna be tough for leon, but if he gets through i expect chimaev to gas. Lb might be a good option here.

Is it headlining a card? I assumed it would be a co-main and 3 rounds.

5 rounder absolutely matters. Much less crazy making a big play on Leon in a 5 rounder. And yeah live bet could be a gold mine too.

 

[theTKDguy]

Is it headlining a card? I assumed it would be a co-main and 3 rounds.

5 rounder absolutely matters. Much less crazy making a big play on Leon in a 5 rounder. And yeah live bet could be a gold mine too.

I think it'll headline a december fight night at the apex. Yes, it being a 5 rounder makes it very interesting. Id like to see how chimaev does after 10 mins.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Those are fair points, but part of the evolution of MMA is that those examples you listed earlier were in more the infancy of MMA. Someone like Chimaev is likely surrounded every day by world champs and elite guys who educate and push him. There's just more education with prospects these days.

The evolution of MMA works against your point, though. Back in the day, there were were no clearly defined tiers like there are now. You beat a few bums and all of a sudden you're fighting the best in the world. The guys at the top weren't necessarily tested or all that skilled since it required so little. So it was more common for an "untested prospect" to win since there was relatively little separating "untested prospect" from "established champion", only a few fights.

Leon Edwards? He's been tested and proven himself time and again.

 

[mkess101]

The evolution of MMA works against your point, though. Back in the day, there were were no clearly defined tiers like there are now. You beat a few bums and all of a sudden you're fighting the best in the world. The guys at the top weren't necessarily tested or all that skilled since it required so little. So it was more common for an "untested prospect" to win since there was relatively little separating "untested prospect" from "established champion", only a few fights.

Leon Edwards? He's been tested and proven himself time and again.

I would agree (about Edwards vis a vis some of the "top guys" back then--maybe not all but some of them for sure). But again, it's certainly true of top prospects now that there is a MUCH better feel for how good they actually are. There's just more information available. A prospect 20 years ago at 6-0 and you'd have people saying "Uhh, where is this guy from? Any idea his background? Who does he train with?" Now you have tons of info about the background, training partners, etc. of guys. You have people scouting them overseas to see what they look like in the cage. With Chimaev you have Gustaffson raving about him before he entered the UFC. A couple decades ago you had Zuffa signing guys sight unseen because they had a good record in Brazil or on the Alabama regional scene. (Maybe a slight exaggeration, but not much). Now, the world is way smaller. Legit prospects with real talent are far more easily recognized as the sport has grown.

 

[Broe.]

How much vig can bookies charge? I have just noticed pokerstarssports (my main bookie) now has ufc odds like Holland x1.67 vs Muradov x2. This seems just absurd, shouldnt it be more like holland x 1.85 and muradov x 2 or holland x 1.67 and muradov x 2.25. Is it even legal to charge this much vig?

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

How much vig can bookies charge? I have just noticed pokerstarssports (my main bookie) now has ufc odds like Holland x1.67 vs Muradov x2. This seems just absurd, shouldnt it be more like holland x 1.85 and muradov x 2 or holland x 1.67 and muradov x 2.25. Is it even legal to charge this much vig?

Bookies can offer any odds they want to, it's up to the player to decide whether there is any value in them. If a bookie keeps offering terrible odds, players should just take their money and leave.

 

[Monster Meat]

Anyone seeing odds on edwards vs khazmat yet? I saw khazmat opened the underdog but that didn’t last long

 

[t6p]

Anyone seeing odds on edwards vs khazmat yet? I saw khazmat opened the underdog but that didn’t last long

 

[Monster Meat]

Thanks still waiting for them to hit nj apps

 

[XociDe]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't go huge on Boser against Arlovski

 

[chemmy]

LFA tonight. Fairly even lines on the main and co-main.

 

[ill800]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't go huge on Boser against Arlovski

Because the line is accurate, if even too high for boser.

do you really think he wins more than 7 out of 10? Stylistically it’s a good matchup for AA.

 

[Monster Meat]

Khazmat hit fox bet today -133 ohhh I may have to take that.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Have 2u on Lupita Godinez at +125. Definitely wouldn't play her at her current -175 or so, though.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Have 2u on Lupita Godinez at +125. Definitely wouldn't play her at her current -175 or so, though.

Considered hedging when the stripper got up to +165. Glad I didn't.

Although the horrendous scorecards (how the hell was round 2 not 10-8 Lupita on all 3, and how did one idiot gave Vanessa round 3 and 2 gave her round 4?!) made it slightly more of a sweat than it should have been.

That was a 49-45 fight that was scored 49-46, 48-47, and 47-47.

 

[Oblivian]

Considered hedging when the stripper got up to +165. Glad I didn't.

Although the horrendous scorecards (how the hell was round 2 not 10-8 Lupita on all 3, and how did one idiot gave Vanessa round 3 and 2 gave her round 4?!) made it slightly more of a sweat than it should have been.

That was a 49-45 fight that was scored 49-46, 48-47, and 47-47.

I hadn't bet on LFA for a while and degened on every fight lol. Admittedly, a lot was tapology capping. Odds were ridiculous on a lot. Fuller as a dog, Diaz as a dog, Gibson (although not as much value as others, and Godinez as a dog. Fun event to watch too. I'm going to miss a lot of the card tonight live for Halloween, so I figured I'd degen out last night.