General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

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i dont think rory will be affected by the lawler fight. he is a serial killer, he said it was the "best night of his life"

i could see rory jabbing WB and trying to work the fence/clinch/takedowns. i know WB has the kicks but are his hands up to par? he was a kickboxer too right, not just a karate guy? drawing a blank on his fights for some reason..

im interested to hear what joe rogan says about this fight because he always talks about how when he started doing kickboxing/boxing after years of TKD he realized how flawed it is, and how you cant do shit with kicks if theres no room, etc. i could really see rory jabbing WB, this fight is gonna come down to who can control the distance


Rory has a nice jab, no question. But WB actually has better hands overall, even taking his kicks out of the equation. More power, better timing and combos, more accurate. Like Mulder said when you add in how deadly he is with his kicks you get what might be the best striker in MMA.

Sham also nailed it. This isn't a fade on Rory at all. Yeah the Robbie fight may affect him but against most guys I don't think that would matter. WB isn't most guys. And it's also about the odds. If people go crazy and WB goes to -200, -220, etc. then no question I'll hedge out and freeroll at the least. I have WB at +110. I consider that a gift. I cap him -140 to -160. So it's not like I'm sitting here saying he is far superior and this fight is a wrap. Hardly.
 
Again, Rory can definitely win. But not if it's primarily a striking match imo.
i agree if the fight is 90% standing, rorys chances of winning are not terribly high. my point in saying that his striking isnt that far behind thompsons is that i dont think he'll get outclassed on the feet and he is much more well rounded and part of the best game planning camp in the game. he'll be able to use his standing work to set up the takedowns imo. and as we've seen time and time again, when the threat of the takedown is real, ones ability to be effective with their striking begins to diminish.
 
This could be the funniest (or most pathetic) thing that I've read in a long time. This is from the former poster 12thman on MMABetting tips.


This is a grind. There are no shortcuts. Believe me. I’ve tried to find them many times over the last 6-7 years and they don’t exist.

I spend 30-40 hours a week researching fights, 6 days a week for the last 4-5 years. I’ve tweaked my system many times and it is constantly evolving. I’ll tweak my system after this period of losing too and ultimately it will improve our profitability.

It’s easy to criticize my processes during a period where we are losing, but don’t forget that my methods made it possible to make money betting on MMA in the first place. If you’ve signed up in the last few months, I’m sorry for your losses. But losing is unfortunately apart of the game and we’ve had to deal with some brutal bad luck in the last few months. It happens. This is fighting and gambling. They are two risky and volatile businesses. We are combining both of them. This is never going to be a smooth ride.

You can think I made bad bets as much as you want, but most of our losses this year are down to unforeseen things happening. If Lahat didn’t catch the flying knee, if Anderson would have applied himself, if Case would have lasted another 18 seconds, if Shoeface could have survived till the end of the round, if Conor would have fought like he normally does, if Thatch would have performed like he did in the Benson fight then all these bets probably would have won.

This is an unpredictable sport and of course all of those bets could have gone those ways on any given night, but for all of them to go the way they did in a very short space of time is pretty brutal and we’re still only down -25 units for the year. I’m pretty happy with that. It’s easy to call each of those bets a bad bet based on how the fights played out, but if you go back and research them like I did you’ll probably see that I made the right call. Everybody is an expert after the fact, but you can’t predict how guys are going to show up and perform on fight night. A lot of guys haven’t fought to their full potential this year and it has cost us.

Things can always be improved, but ripping apart my methodology with the benefit of hindsight isn’t very helpful.

If you doubt me, please leave the website. I’ll refund every dollar in VIP Memberships you’ve ever paid and you’ll never hear from me again.

If you want to make money, please stick around. I’ve learned over the years that a -25 unit swing is nothing to be worried about about. It happens. We’ve bounced back from worse losses in the past and this time will be no different.

95% of people will never make money in Sports Betting or Online Poker because they don’t have the mentality to deal with losing. Don’t be a statistic. Ride out the storm and stick with us. You won’t regret it.

Lol at capping MMA as a full time job and having -25 units and a -15.46 ROI for the year. How in the world can he think that all of his bets were good bets and that it was only bad luck over a 3 month skid? I said it back when he posted on here - he's one of the dumbest posters that I've seen through the years.
 
This could be the funniest (or most pathetic) thing that I've read in a long time. This is from the former poster 12thman on MMABetting tips.

Lol at capping MMA as a full time job and having -25 units and a -15.46 ROI for the year. How in the world can he think that all of his bets were good bets and that it was only bad luck over a 3 month skid? I said it back when he posted on here - he's one of the dumbest posters that I've seen through the years.

I took a look at the website, and for all I can tell they just pick the favorite on the main card? I cant believe people actually pay for these things when you can get so much information free on the internet.
 
This could be the funniest (or most pathetic) thing that I've read in a long time. This is from the former poster 12thman on MMABetting tips.




Lol at capping MMA as a full time job and having -25 units and a -15.46 ROI for the year. How in the world can he think that all of his bets were good bets and that it was only bad luck over a 3 month skid? I said it back when he posted on here - he's one of the dumbest posters that I've seen through the years.
@barrygood1 get on this. @12thMan obviously needs some advice from our best $harp, maybe be nice and hook him up with a discount on that premium service
 
I took a look at the website, and for all I can tell they just pick the favorite on the main card? I cant believe people actually pay for these things when you can get so much information free on the internet.

His history on here is hilarious. He started posting a long time ago and would talk about his bets. He would then trash all other touts and act like he could do a better service. He then started a website which he constantly spammed saying it was "to just help others make money". He was banned several times for spamming and had to make new accounts. At the time, he didn't charge as it was all just a bait. He then started charging the fee he does and marketing the hell out of it. All of this was going on while he was completely trashing other touts.

I finally got annoyed with him and said that his results really aren't as good as he makes them out to be. You'll notice he grossly inflates his # of units risked per year, which made his results look better than they were. For example, when he was saying he was up 10 units per year, it was similar to someone else being up 2-3 units. The main thing was that his ROI wasn't near as good as he thought, and we figured it out to be somewhere around 7%. 7% isn't awful or anything, but he was making it sound like his returns were insane.

Before his breakdown and leaving Sherdog, he went on this long rant about his results and how he'd definitely have an ROI between 20%-30% now that he's doing it "full time". He plays the victim card for a while and saying he was getting picked on, but his entire marketing of his website was based on him bashing other people and their results. We go back and forth for a while and I said I guarantee he won't even be close to 20%-30% ROI. In fact, I don't think he'll ever have a long term double digit ROI. I talked about how he'll absolutely get buried when there is a period of underdogs winning since he bets ridiculous favorites.

Exactly what I said would happen did happen. He got slaughtered over the last 3 months because he chases huge favorites and acts like it's a big victory when they do hit. It only takes a loss to wipe out about 4 of his wins. His losses have always been huge. My guess is that he will not get back in the positive for 2016, if he does at all, until mid year.
 
His history on here is hilarious. He started posting a long time ago and would talk about his bets. He would then trash all other touts and act like he could do a better service. He then started a website which he constantly spammed saying it was "to just help others make money". He was banned several times for spamming and had to make new accounts. At the time, he didn't charge as it was all just a bait. He then started charging the fee he does and marketing the hell out of it. All of this was going on while he was completely trashing other touts.

I finally got annoyed with him and said that his results really aren't as good as he makes them out to be. You'll notice he grossly inflates his # of units risked per year, which made his results look better than they were. For example, when he was saying he was up 10 units per year, it was similar to someone else being up 2-3 units. The main thing was that his ROI wasn't near as good as he thought, and we figured it out to be somewhere around 7%. 7% isn't awful or anything, but he was making it sound like his returns were insane.

Before his breakdown and leaving Sherdog, he went on this long rant about his results and how he'd definitely have an ROI between 20%-30% now that he's doing it "full time". He plays the victim card for a while and saying he was getting picked on, but his entire marketing of his website was based on him bashing other people and their results. We go back and forth for a while and I said I guarantee he won't even be close to 20%-30% ROI. In fact, I don't think he'll ever have a long term double digit ROI. I talked about how he'll absolutely get buried when there is a period of underdogs winning since he bets ridiculous favorites.

Exactly what I said would happen did happen. He got slaughtered over the last 3 months because he chases huge favorites and acts like it's a big victory when they do hit. It only takes a loss to wipe out about 4 of his wins. His losses have always been huge. My guess is that he will not get back in the positive for 2016, if he does at all, until mid year.

That is amazing. I feel so bad for new guys thinking these pay-bets are a good way on earning money. It was the same thing with Luca Furys Fight Picks https://m.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/2q7mkl/investigating_luca_fury_furys_fight_picks/
 
That is amazing. I feel so bad for new guys thinking these pay-bets are a good way on earning money. It was the same thing with Luca Furys Fight Picks https://m.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/2q7mkl/investigating_luca_fury_furys_fight_picks/
Jesus christ man. I've stated my position before in this section about how useless I think it is to pay for an MMA tout's services when the open discussion on this forum is a fuck ton more beneficial for someone who wants to pursue MMA gambling, but this is next level shit. If all of that is true, Luca Fury is kind of a scumbag, and to be a scumbag over something as small as MMA gambling to the point you want recognition so bad you are deceiving people with fraudulent numbers is a bit over the top.
 
Jesus christ man. I've stated my position before in this section about how useless I think it is to pay for an MMA tout's services when the open discussion on this forum is a fuck ton more beneficial for someone who wants to pursue MMA gambling, but this is next level shit. If all of that is true, Luca Fury is kind of a scumbag, and to be a scumbag over something as small as MMA gambling to the point you want recognition so bad you are deceiving people with fraudulent numbers is a bit over the top.
Wasn't Luca "screwed by the judges" Fury banned from cappertec for trying to manipulate his stats? I'm pretty sure.
 
Wasn't Luca "screwed by the judges" Fury banned from cappertec for trying to manipulate his stats? I'm pretty sure.
No idea. Outside of what i've heard about him on here i'm not familiar with him. No reason for me to follow any touts when I get all I need discussing things with you guys.
 
That is amazing. I feel so bad for new guys thinking these pay-bets are a good way on earning money. It was the same thing with Luca Furys Fight Picks https://m.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/2q7mkl/investigating_luca_fury_furys_fight_picks/

Luca Fury sucks such massive amount of balls. I hate the fact that through pure marketing he has somehow created this illusion that he knows what he's talking about. Getting on that sherdog radio show and shit. Last even he that Matthew has better wrestling, but worse striking and BJJ than Case.. Called him out on it too, ofcourse the :eek::eek::eek: never answered.

He's results is also awful, ofcourse he tries to brush them up and everything, but if you go through them.. It's bad.

I'm not sure if its a fabrication taht he actually gets customers, but it seems not.. Goddamn basement dwelling cat owning autist.
 
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Paying for mma picks is insane. If you dont have a clue who to bet then dont bet at all. Of course help and hearing opinions is great but you just cant make a good profit if it's entirely up for someone to tell you what to do.

Paying for someone who tells you to bet big amounts on favourites is even crazier.
 
I think it was before WB even fought in mma so I don't think it'll be a huge factor. obviously it will help rory a bit, I think they sparred for like 1 camp or something?

i can't say for sure, but i think it was a lot more than 1 camp
 
i can't say for sure, but i think it was a lot more than 1 camp

quite possibly was, I can't for the life of me remember where I heard this, but I'm certain wherever I heard it said it was before he fought mma, so must of been a while ago. Also you can look at this both ways, WB will have a better understanding of rory's game and not just vice versa, although I guess it would still benefit rory slightly more if it was pre mma WB.

might of been rogan's fight companion podcast where I heard it. anyone else got a better memory than me?

Paying for mma picks is insane. If you dont have a clue who to bet then dont bet at all. Of course help and hearing opinions is great but you just cant make a good profit if it's entirely up for someone to tell you what to do.

Paying for someone who tells you to bet big amounts on favourites is even crazier.

100% agree, and to make it even crazier, ppl are paying for these touts online, with someone who they will never meet or likely even hear speak, with no idea of the motives of these people.

I think a lot of touts completely change their betting methods severely once they get paid by subs rather than gambling the money themselves. it's just a different mindset that goes into making picks with no immediate risk of losing money.
 
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I just checked fury`s fight picks, he's down 20.71 units so far this year!!

and he actually calling himself "the number one MMA betting service in the world"

I feel sorry for those gullible enough to believe this BS

EDIT: these are the prices he charges...wow just wow...
 
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Some lines open at betsafe that I can't find any bookies which means they could hold some real value:

Pettis (1.50 / -200) vs Barboza (2.60 / +160)
Bigfoot (1.65 / -154 ) vs Struve (2.24 / +124)
Tumenov (1.80 / -125) vs Nelson (2.01 / +101)
Shogun (2.10 / +110) vs Corey Anderson (1.73 / -137)
Silva (1.50 / -200) vs Hall ( 2.60 / +160)
Mousasi (1.45 / -222) vs Brunson (2.75 / +175)

Not sure tho, I have to rewatch a couple of fights before.
 
Some lines open at betsafe that I can't find any bookies which means they could hold some real value:

Pettis (1.50 / -200) vs Barboza (2.60 / +160)
Bigfoot (1.65 / -154 ) vs Struve (2.24 / +124)
Tumenov (1.80 / -125) vs Nelson (2.01 / +101)
Shogun (2.10 / +110) vs Corey Anderson (1.73 / -137)
Silva (1.50 / -200) vs Hall ( 2.60 / +160)
Mousasi (1.45 / -222) vs Brunson (2.75 / +175)

Not sure tho, I have to rewatch a couple of fights before.
those where posted a few pages back

I think tumenov still has value, the fight will propably look like the gunnie/story
 
Struve was +175 lol Bigfoot is coming off three r1 KO losses how can you possibly set the line as Bigfoot that big a favourite.
 
so both croatia and the dutch card are on a sunday?
 
I just checked fury`s fight picks, he's down 20.71 units so far this year!!

and he actually calling himself "the number one MMA betting service in the world"

I feel sorry for those gullible enough to believe this BS

EDIT: these are the prices he charges...wow just wow...
Are you fucking kidding me with those prices?!?!

Yeah, fuck this guy.
 
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