General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

[Sham5916910]

Gunnar Tumenov Rotterdam. Really like Tumenov here dont think Gunnar can get him down. Tumenov -200 we reck?

 

[Jon Stark]

I like this bet. Two past their prime fighters finally meeting up. Rashad has fought once in 2.5 years and looked terrible. Shogun had flashes of brilliance in the first two rounds vs Hendo and grinded out a a hard fought decision vs Lil Nog. Recent pics of Shogun show him to be looking strong. Rashad typically wins fights from KO's and boring UD's. I suspect his KO power has faded by this time and doubt he has the gas tank to grind Shogun for all three rounds.

I just see Shogun being the more aggressive one here and probably winning at least 2 of 3 rounds for the win or perhaps TKO. The value is definitely evident and I'll be betting 100 on Shogun.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm with you. I cap this fight at around even at worst. I still can't believe he was moderately favored over Bader.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gunnar Tumenov Rotterdam. Really like Tumenov here dont think Gunnar can get him down. Tumenov -200 we reck?

Horrible match making. How does this fight make any sense? Gunnar is 1-2 in his last 3 while Tumenov is surging into top 15-20 range.

Pretty interesting fight though. Honestly, if Tumenov is -200 or worse I will really need to think about this. Dk if i'm willing to pay that much when a SMART Gunnar, not one with retard mentality of grappling Maia, could make this fairly interesting.

 

[Sham5916910]

Completely agree with you both ive said before i cap this at evens. That reminds me to place my bet. Cheers

 

[Joseph Budden]

Livebet fight imo. Don't trust either of these guys anymore. If Shogun has a good first round he clearly wins he'll drop to evens at worst probably and i'm OK with that.

Maybeeee small stab Shogun by decision if its nice though

 

[Gabe]

Rashad will win. Shogun is a shell.

 

[Ballsaque]

Yes. Shogun has looked way better than Rashad did against Bader. Even so, Shogun actually has a pretty decent sweep game if he gets taken down, and still has somewhat of a chin. Fiddy fiddy ish fight. Bet Shogun Decision +6xx.

 

[EzFlyer]

i'm liking shogun for sure given the current odds.

rashad looked sooo gunshy in his return.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I aint betting someone who got badly outstruck by Bader, that's for sure.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Rashad will win. Shogun is a shell.

shell v. shell matchup imo

 

[cs02132]

Gunnar Tumenov Rotterdam. Really like Tumenov here dont think Gunnar can get him down. Tumenov -200 we reck?

Yea I definitely favor tumenov here. How is his TDD/bottom game/getting up from the bottom and all that? I've only seen him destroy people on the feet lol.. Pretty obvious but if Gunnar takes him down he could be grapplefucked but if it stays standing I think tumenov has a pretty big advantage

 

[mkess101]

Magny still the dog vs Lombard. Expecting this to maybe get to evens or even flip by fight time. Already hit Magny +130 and Magny dec +230. Lombard coming off a year+ layoff. Magny seems like a guy who's truly locked in and focused on always getting better. Didn't let the Maia loss rattle him, just used it as motivation and learned from it. I was really impressed with his ability to scramble and his offensive wrestling vs Gastelum.

Might hedge a bit with Lombard by KO if odds are good enough but I like Magny in this fight, probably to win by dec.

 

[mkess101]

Added props up for Mir/Hunt and Magny/Lombard.

Mir sub +405
Hunt rd 1 +175

Put a little on each of those

Lombard KO/TKO +345. I'm okay with that as my hedge on all my Magny action.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Full props for Ferg fight too.

 

[mkess101]

Full props for Ferg fight too.

Yep just hit Ferg sub +580. Insane line for a guy as slick as he is fighting a guy that's going to willingly go to the mat with him in a 25 minute fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

Full props for Ferg fight too.

Yep just hit Ferg sub +580. Insane line for a guy as slick as he is fighting a guy that's going to willingly go to the mat with him in a 25 minute fight.

yea i like that, that was my first instinct...

until i scrolled down:

ferguson: no scorecards -135

smasssshhhhh

 

[EzFlyer]

i am hitting ferg sub +580, small, too

 

[Jae Gibbz]

yea i like that, that was my first instinct...

until i scrolled down:

ferguson: no scorecards -135

smasssshhhhh

Yup, I hit that and R4/5

 

[mkess101]

yea i like that, that was my first instinct...

until i scrolled down:

ferguson: no scorecards -135

smasssshhhhh

Oh yeah I hit that too. Ferg now officially my biggest play this year with all the bets I have on him.

Hedged a bit with Khabib by dec but really have a lot on Ferg.