General MMA discussion and future lines - August 2016

[Joseph Budden]

I'm not saying USADA specifically because RDA lost to Eddie, just that if it's going to affect one of the two guys I'll roll the dice that it's the Brazilian over the American given what we've seen so far.

I think Ferg is simply more durable than RDA. Even when Ferg gets stunned (like vs Vanetta with a clean head kick) he just somehow regains his composure quickly and immediatly goes on the offensive. RDA hasn't shown that. He's terrific, but when he's run up against serious adversity I've yet to see him come back. And I just don't think you can be in a fight with the current version of Ferg without there being a time when he puts you in a less than good spot. I'm not sure about RDA's ability to take a good punch. Eddie has nice boxing, but he landed clean plenty on Cerrone in rd 1 of their fight and Cerrone was fine. To be fair none quite as flush as the one he landed on RDA. I don't want to get carried away and say RDA is chinny, that's taking it WAY too far. But, in terms of durability I give a clear edge to Ferg.

And as good as RDA's bjj is, I think taking Ferg down is tricky. He's a decent sized LW and is one of those guys with sneaky enough subs to even catch a legit grappling stud like RDA if he's not careful. Also, there's something mental that some guys go through when they reach the top of the mountain and then get knocked off it. This may not be RDA, but some guys don't react well. They find it harder to put in the time and effort in training, etc. It's something to consider.

Now, all this said I'm not gonna sit here and say I'd bet Ferg as a favorite (though I do favor him at maybe -140ish?). I think it's a close fight. There's plenty of outcomes that would not surprise me (including RDA just blitzing Ferg like he did Cerrone and finising early--it's certainly something RDA is capable of). But if I can get nice dog odds on Ferg, I'm on that for sure.

Well he hasn't had to show that lol. Alvarez would have beasted Ferg if he rocked him imo so thats not the best example to base off of. See you started realizing that as you kept typing though lol

I'm going out on a big limb here, but I seriously wouldn't be surprised if Ferg can't hurt RDA. The takedowns will ALWAYS be there for RDA. I don't think taking down Ferg is that tricky at all. Ferg is too wild in his aggression to stuff any, he just goes right to subs which I doubt he'd catch RDA in. RDA is very defensively savvy, and Ferg's biggest weakness is his defense. The fight reaks of horrible match up for Ferg to me. In a battle of matching aggression, the guy with the much worse defense and much worse wrestling is a hard guy to back, and thats Ferg.

 

[mkess101]

Well he hasn't had to show that lol. Alvarez would have beasted Ferg if he rocked him imo so thats not the best example to base off of. See you started realizing that as you kept typing though lol

I'm going out on a big limb here, but I seriously wouldn't be surprised if Ferg can't hurt RDA. The takedowns will ALWAYS be there for RDA. I don't think taking down Ferg is that tricky at all. Ferg is too wild in his aggression to stuff any, he just goes right to subs which I doubt he'd catch RDA in. RDA is very defensively savvy, and Ferg's biggest weakness is his defense. The fight reaks of horrible match up for Ferg to me. In a battle of matching aggression, the guy with the much worse defense and much worse wrestling is a hard guy to back, and thats Ferg.

I guess I'm saying that's maybe the type of onslaught that Ferg survives (the one RDA didn't against Eddie). Ferg just seems to find a way to muddle through getting stung. I think Ferg's power is okay. Not great, but good enough to hurt RDA (or most any LW's honestly). And he's relentless.

The USADA questions about Brazilian fighters specifically, the fact he just lost the title and his head might not be in the best spot, etc. Alone none of these are big red flags. But add them up, and there's way more question marks about RDA than there are about Ferg right now.

Stylistically though, you make some great points. Ferg is hittable. Extremely durable and able to turn the tide quickly when he's rocked, but absolutely hittable. Could put him in a spot he (finally) can't get out of vs someone as good as RDA. And RDA could find ways to put Ferg on his back and control him similar to how he did to Nate (another excellent guard player). 100% valid points, and it's why I'm not going overboard claiming this is Ferg's fight to lose and stuff like that. It's a fight with a lot of possible outcomes imo.

And as always, odds will dictate everything. Hell, maybe Ferg opens as the favorite and then I'm thinking about a play on RDA. Either guy at decent dog odds looks good to me right now at first glance honestly.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I guess I'm saying that's maybe the type of onslaught that Ferg survives (the one RDA didn't against Eddie). Ferg just seems to find a way to muddle through getting stung. I think Ferg's power is okay. Not great, but good enough to hurt RDA (or most any LW's honestly). And he's relentless.

The USADA questions about Brazilian fighters specifically, the fact he just lost the title and his head might not be in the best spot, etc. Alone none of these are big red flags. But add them up, and there's way more question marks about RDA than there are about Ferg right now.

Stylistically though, you make some great points. Ferg is hittable. Extremely durable and able to turn the tide quickly when he's rocked, but absolutely hittable. Could put him in a spot he (finally) can't get out of vs someone as good as RDA. And RDA could find ways to put Ferg on his back and control him similar to how he did to Nate (another excellent guard player). 100% valid points, and it's why I'm not going overboard claiming this is Ferg's fight to lose and stuff like that. It's a fight with a lot of possible outcomes imo.

And as always, odds will dictate everything. Hell, maybe Ferg opens as the favorite and then I'm thinking about a play on RDA. Either guy at decent dog odds looks good to me right now at first glance honestly.

I think he'd survive. I think RDA would decision him with a top heavy strategy. 50-45 scorecards in favor of RDA wouldn't surprise me in the least if the fight played out that way.

I would COMPLETELY disagree there are more ?s on RDA than Ferg. RDA was fighting phenomenally vs Eddie, he got caught by a punch, and one he was defending no less. Shit happens in MMA. On the flipside, Ferg got beasted by a guy with 0 UFC experience who stepped in on short notice. Had Lando not gassed, he might've been the better fighter.

Guessing a lot of people would disagree with me, but I would hammer the shit out of RDA at anything close to evens.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Louis Smolka vs Sergio Pettis for Portland FN I think in September

Great fight

 

[Sham5916910]

Louis Smolka vs Sergio Pettis for Portland FN I think in September

Great fight

All over smolka

 

[Joseph Budden]

All over smolka

Lines gonna be interesting.

Also, McCrory vs Marquardt on that same card. Man, I can't believe i'm saying this, but if bookmakers try fading Marquardt here like I expect, I will bet him to win

 

[mkess101]

I think he'd survive. I think RDA would decision him with a top heavy strategy. 50-45 scorecards in favor of RDA wouldn't surprise me in the least if the fight played out that way.

I would COMPLETELY disagree there are more ?s on RDA than Ferg. RDA was fighting phenomenally vs Eddie, he got caught by a punch, and one he was defending no less. Shit happens in MMA. On the flipside, Ferg got beasted by a guy with 0 UFC experience who stepped in on short notice. Had Lando not gassed, he might've been the better fighter.

Guessing a lot of people would disagree with me, but I would hammer the shit out of RDA at anything close to evens.

I don't think you can say RDA was fighting "phenomenally" vs Eddie. I mean, he looked fine up until he got cracked but there wasn't a ton going one. He was moving well and landed some solid strikes, but it didn't look like a mismatch or anything tilted in his favor.

The problem with trying to judge Ferg vs Lando is that Ferg gets hit in every fight. It's sort of his "thing" LOL. But he always recovers and wins. I don't think it was so much Lando gassing as Ferg started landing back and Lando couldn't take it. That's what tired Lando out.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I don't think you can say RDA was fighting "phenomenally" vs Eddie. I mean, he looked fine up until he got cracked but there wasn't a ton going one. He was moving well and landed some solid strikes, but it didn't look like a mismatch or anything tilted in his favor.

The problem with trying to judge Ferg vs Lando is that Ferg gets hit in every fight. It's sort of his "thing" LOL. But he always recovers and wins. I don't think it was so much Lando gassing as Ferg started landing back and Lando couldn't take it. That's what tired Lando out.

It was competitive but he definitely looked great. Nothing that would lead anyone to believe hes out of his prime or there is cause for concern on how he'll perform in the future.

Exactly! He gets hit in every fight. That was the first time he fought someone who was going to match his aggression, and look what happened? I think its very plausible full camp Vannata could beat Ferg. So imagine what an aggressive pressure fighter like RDA could possibly do. I'm not saying Ferg landing didn't have an affect, but I would definitely dispute writing off Lando gassing. He was a sitting duck in round 2 after going all out at the end of the first (really all of the first) just eating jabs after moving in all sorts of batshit awesome ways when he had energy

 

[mkess101]

It was competitive but he definitely looked great. Nothing that would lead anyone to believe hes out of his prime or there is cause for concern on how he'll perform in the future.

Exactly! He gets hit in every fight. That was the first time he fought someone who was going to match his aggression, and look what happened? I think its very plausible full camp Vannata could beat Ferg. So imagine what an aggressive pressure fighter like RDA could possibly do. I'm not saying Ferg landing didn't have an affect, but I would definitely dispute writing off Lando gassing. He was a sitting duck in round 2 after going all out at the end of the first (really all of the first) just eating jabs after moving in all sorts of batshit awesome ways when he had energy

Right but Ferg was landing his jab (a stiff jab, not a "feeler") most of the fist round too. It's not like Ferg wasn't hitting Lando in the first. He was, and a lot. I think that took the starch out of Lando as much as anything. I also think Ferg maybe overlooked him a bit, but that's hard to say.

And Ferg has fought top level guys who have matched his aggression and got into firefights with him. Rewatch the Barboza fight. He came guns blazing at Ferg and landed, but Ferg simply won the war of attrition. You could argue Barb is among the top few strikers in the division (in fact I don't even think there's an argument against it) but he couldn't hurt Ferg bad enough to keep him from constantly pressuring.

I will be very interested to see where the line opens.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Right but Ferg was landing his jab (a stiff jab, not a "feeler") most of the fist round too. It's not like Ferg wasn't hitting Lando in the first. He was, and a lot. I think that took the starch out of Lando as much as anything. I also think Ferg maybe overlooked him a bit, but that's hard to say.

And Ferg has fought top level guys who have matched his aggression and got into firefights with him. Rewatch the Barboza fight. He came guns blazing at Ferg and landed, but Ferg simply won the war of attrition. You could argue Barb is among the top few strikers in the division (in fact I don't even think there's an argument against it) but he couldn't hurt Ferg bad enough to keep him from constantly pressuring.

I will be very interested to see where the line opens.

Barboza was dragged into exchanges, thats not his style. He was trying to get space and get in rhythm the whole fight, at no point was he moving towards Ferg. Thats why Vannata had more success against Ferg and why I feel real confident RDA is a horrible style matchup. You can't expect to beat Ferg dictating spacing and controlling the pace. Barboza fight showed that. But when you can meet his aggression, he leaves himself sooo open defensively, even more so than he does normally.

Yeah hopefully these rumors are true and this is happening, and lines will be interesting.

 

[mkess101]

Barboza was dragged into exchanges, thats not his style. He was trying to get space and get in rhythm the whole fight, at no point was he moving towards Ferg. Thats why Vannata had more success against Ferg and why I feel real confident RDA is a horrible style matchup. You can't expect to beat Ferg dictating spacing and controlling the pace. Barboza fight showed that. But when you can meet his aggression, he leaves himself sooo open defensively, even more so than he does normally.

Yeah hopefully these rumors are true and this is happening, and lines will be interesting.

Yeah I agree normally that's not Barb's style. But once he did get dragged into it he was fine with it, until he wasn't. He was landing and I'm sure thinking (given his striking capabilities and power) that he'd be getting Ferg out of there. But it just...never seems to happen.

But yeah, Ferg absolutely leaves himself open to be hit. No way to argue otherwise. So far he's been able to just keep plowing ahead and eventually break everyone.

The more I think about it, the more I think the play may be itd. Hard to see it going to the cards either way.

 

[iGnP]

All over smolka

100% agree

 

[Joseph Budden]

The more I think about it, the more I think the play may be itd. Hard to see it going to the cards either way.

Jeez we can't get any agreement here lol. I think RDA dec is the most likely scenario. I'd imagine he spends a lot of time in top position if/when they fight.

 

[mkess101]

Jeez we can't get any agreement here lol. I think RDA dec is the most likely scenario. I'd imagine he spends a lot of time in top position if/when they fight.

Ha ha nope. I think Ferg just forces action too much, regardless of position. I think he learned from the Santana fight too. He simply won't let RDA hold top position and keep him down. He'll take chances, trust his chin (be willing to eat a bit of gnp to open his guard to cause scrambles, etc.) and be constantly moving. If RDA does decide to go grapple heavy, Ferg either catches him in something or takes a chance that allows RDA to improve position and take his back, get mount, etc. and finish. If a guy is willing to take big risks, go for leglocks, etc and will risk giving up his back or a worse position you cannot hold him down and sit in his guard. And Ferg is that guy. It may get him subbed, but I just can't see him content to be held down again for most of a fight. He's said it was poor strategy vs Santana, and I believe him. It's not who he is.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ha ha nope. I think Ferg just forces action too much, regardless of position. I think he learned from the Santana fight too. He simply won't let RDA hold top position and keep him down. He'll take chances, trust his chin (be willing to eat a bit of gnp to open his guard to cause scrambles, etc.) and be constantly moving. If RDA does decide to go grapple heavy, Ferg either catches him in something or takes a chance that allows RDA to improve position and take his back, get mount, etc. and finish. If a guy is willing to take big risks, go for leglocks, etc and will risk giving up his back or a worse position you cannot hold him down and sit in his guard. And Ferg is that guy. It may get him subbed, but I just can't see him content to be held down again for most of a fight. He's said it was poor strategy vs Santana, and I believe him. It's not who he is.

I think a lot of the crazy shit you see Ferg do will get negated by RDA's top game. Not saying RDA will sit in the guard, but he'll control dominant position through a majority of the scrambles. Iirc Trujillo held top position in the first round for a bit on Ferg, and Castillo (think you called him Santana lol) also blanketed his way through the guard. RDA's top game is levels beyond those guys, so Ferg would have to have improved getting up and not just spamming sub attempts a lot in the last 2 years.

 

[mkess101]

I think a lot of the crazy shit you see Ferg do will get negated by RDA's top game. Not saying RDA will sit in the guard, but he'll control dominant position through a majority of the scrambles. Iirc Trujillo held top position in the first round for a bit on Ferg, and Castillo (think you called him Santana lol) also blanketed his way through the guard. RDA's top game is levels beyond those guys, so Ferg would have to have improved getting up and not just spamming sub attempts a lot in the last 2 years.

LOL yeah Castillo. I think there's a baseball player Danny Santana and I was just looking up MLB stuff.

Anyway, the thing is Castillo did keep him there but if you watch it was exactly because Ferg didn't take the chances he does now. RDA has a tremendous top level game, and potentially could hold Ferg down for some stretches. But in a 5 rounder that will only happen for a couple rounds. Ferg's mentality and cardio will mean he refuses to just be held down. I'd call it the grappling version of "going down swinging" LOL. I guess what you're saying is maybe we see Ferg give up dominant positions while trying to cause scrambles but Ferg's sub defense holds up even while RDA has his back, etc. That I could see happening I guess. But 25 minutes is a damn long time to see that type of thing. At some point someone slips up and it's over I think.

But, of course, as always it will depend on the odds. I sit here and go on and on about what I think and none of it matters until they release the lines.

 

[Joseph Budden]

LOL yeah Castillo. I think there's a baseball player Danny Santana and I was just looking up MLB stuff.

Anyway, the thing is Castillo did keep him there but if you watch it was exactly because Ferg didn't take the chances he does now. RDA has a tremendous top level game, and potentially could hold Ferg down for some stretches. But in a 5 rounder that will only happen for a couple rounds. Ferg's mentality and cardio will mean he refuses to just be held down. I'd call it the grappling version of "going down swinging" LOL. I guess what you're saying is maybe we see Ferg give up dominant positions while trying to cause scrambles but Ferg's sub defense holds up even while RDA has his back, etc. That I could see happening I guess. But 25 minutes is a damn long time to see that type of thing. At some point someone slips up and it's over I think.

But, of course, as always it will depend on the odds. I sit here and go on and on about what I think and none of it matters until they release the lines.

Speaking of cardio....another reason I think this is a dreadful style for Ferg lol. RDA is the rare guy who probably has just as much cardio. The pace he put on Pettis will forever make people think "how tf does this guy not slowdown in the slightest?"

RDA has never been a back taker. What I think would happen, is RDA would stay in half guard and side control everytime Ferg tried to scramble or go for subs and just pepper him. I've seen every RDA UFC fight and I can't recall him ever taking anyone's back now that I think about it lol

On another note...

Will Brooks vs Brazilian Cowboy in Portland. Wtf is UFC doing with Brooks? Can we see him vs top guys please?

 

[mkess101]

Speaking of cardio....another reason I think this is a dreadful style for Ferg lol. RDA is the rare guy who probably has just as much cardio. The pace he put on Pettis will forever make people think "how tf does this guy not slowdown in the slightest?"

RDA has never been a back taker. What I think would happen, is RDA would stay in half guard and side control everytime Ferg tried to scramble or go for subs and just pepper him. I've seen every RDA UFC fight and I can't recall him ever taking anyone's back now that I think about it lol

On another note...

Will Brooks vs Brazilian Cowboy in Portland. Wtf is UFC doing with Brooks? Can we see him vs top guys please?

I could see him holding Ferg in half guard for stretches, but Ferg will duck under and go for the leg and no matter how good of top control you have when someone commits to that full on you can't really hold them in half anymore. You can rotate and take the back fairly easily (which is one of the reasons more guys don't try to use it to cause scrambles--along with the fact it takes a lot of energy but for Ferg that's not really an issue) but tough to force the guy all the way back to his back. Essentially, if a guy is willing to really go for it to cause a scramble and leave himself open to gnp or giving up a much worse position, you can't stop it. You just capitalize on the fact he's taken a risk and left himself open for those things. Which means I'll be eyeing the RDA sub line too LOL.

Brazilian Cowboy's tdd...umm. Okay not gonna comment too much but one prop I'm already thinking of...

 

[Joseph Budden]

I could see him holding Ferg in half guard for stretches, but Ferg will duck under and go for the leg and no matter how good of top control you have when someone commits to that full on you can't really hold them in half anymore. You can rotate and take the back fairly easily (which is one of the reasons more guys don't try to use it to cause scrambles--along with the fact it takes a lot of energy but for Ferg that's not really an issue) but tough to force the guy all the way back to his back. Essentially, if a guy is willing to really go for it to cause a scramble and leave himself open to gnp or giving up a much worse position, you can't stop it. You just capitalize on the fact he's taken a risk and left himself open for those things. Which means I'll be eyeing the RDA sub line too LOL.

Brazilian Cowboy's tdd...umm. Okay not gonna comment too much but one prop I'm already thinking of...

Luckily this talk wasn't for nothing lol

RDA vs Fergenstein confirmed for November

 

[Sham5916910]

Luckily this talk wasn't for nothing lol

RDA vs Fergenstein confirmed for November

Ferg gonna fck him up baby! Come on dog odds baby!