General MMA discussion and future lines - August 2016

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iGnP

iGnP

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@Joseph Budden i know you're on NOT Conor ITD (i think you said it might be your biggest play to date), but what do you think about Nate NSC at at -115?
 
iGnP said:
@Joseph Budden i know you're on NOT Conor ITD (i think you said it might be your biggest play to date), but what do you think about Nate NSC at at -115?
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My only (and it's a very small one) concern would be Conor landing something that drops Nate and having a quick stoppage. A flash knockdown where Nate is stunned but could recover easily but Conor follows up with a few punches and ref jumps in. This is my inner conspiracy theorist at work.
 
Tebowned said:
Anyone laying money on McGoat before the Irish find their way to Vegas? I think his line will shoot down the week of. Then hedge on Nate?
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I would but I like parlays too much and having trouble to find one or two extra plays. Damn for that whole Condit/Maia fight change...
And by the way I wouldnt be too surprised if Conor actually stopped Nate this time as he was way too aggressively chasing the ko last time that he forgot to pick his shots and counter. First time I've seen Conor swinging and like a madman was that first round in the Diaz fight.
 
sonhow said:
I would but I like parlays too much and having trouble to find one or two extra plays. Damn for that whole Condit/Maia fight change...
And by the way I wouldnt be too surprised if Conor actually stopped Nate this time as he was way too aggressively chasing the ko last time that he forgot to pick his shots and counter. First time I've seen Conor swinging and like a madman was that first round in the Diaz fight.
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Okay but he was LANDING those power shots. A lot. He was fresh rd 1 and landed big shots on Nate. Shots that he's put everyone else away with. It's not like he slowed from wildly swinging and missing. He just met a guy who didn't crumble when he hit him.
 
Rumour, Rda-Ferguson for the tuf latin america finale
 
mkess101 said:
Okay but he was LANDING those power shots. A lot. He was fresh rd 1 and landed big shots on Nate. Shots that he's put everyone else away with. It's not like he slowed from wildly swinging and missing. He just met a guy who didn't crumble when he hit him.
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He did land but now he knows that Nate wont go down easily and that he needs to adjust. Also the best shot is the one that the opponent wont see coming.
 
sonhow said:
He did land but now he knows that Nate wont go down easily and that he needs to adjust. Also the best shot is the one that the opponent wont see coming.
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Agree he's gonna take a different approach this time. That's why I'm big on the o2.5. The one the "opponent doesn't see coming" is great in theory but Nate's style makes that extremely difficult. Nate throws volume and it's mostly jabs and straight shots down the middle. He rarely over commits and doesn't sit down on his punches a lot. He's just an extremely hard guy to catch coming in with a bomb he doesn't see.
 
mkess101 said:
Agree he's gonna take a different approach this time. That's why I'm big on the o2.5. The one the "opponent doesn't see coming" is great in theory but Nate's style makes that extremely difficult. Nate throws volume and it's mostly jabs and straight shots down the middle. He rarely over commits and doesn't sit down on his punches a lot. He's just an extremely hard guy to catch coming in with a bomb he doesn't see.
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Agreed. Thomson did catch him with big shots (headkicks) and put him out though so freak shot or not it's not impossible to finish him off.
I do think this fight goes late no matter who wins so 0 2.5 is a great play.
 
Eddie vs Khabib rumored for an event in Philly. Think ill have to go to that live if true
 
man I just remembered that hendo was 500/1 earlier this year too be MW champ in 2016, anyone get on that? that would of been a giant freeroll : /
 
Hopefully nate is +150 when fight time comes around in vegas since I'll be there..betting big on straight and 100 on ko tko.. parlay story/glover/diaz and I wonder what garbrandts ko line is going to be
 
Joseph Budden said:
Honestly, I think RDA will dominate Ferg
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I think I disagree. I think is just tougher than RDA and his pressure can win him a war of attrition. He will push forward and press the action. And RDA will land on him, because everyone does. But I think Ferg will eventually break RDA. I think the USADA effect is real, and seems to have hit Brazilians harder than anyone. Doesn't mean others aren't affected too, but I think Ferg wins this fight. Hopefully odds are where I want them.
 
mkess101 said:
I think I disagree. I think is just tougher than RDA and his pressure can win him a war of attrition. He will push forward and press the action. And RDA will land on him, because everyone does. But I think Ferg will eventually break RDA. I think the USADA effect is real, and seems to have hit Brazilians harder than anyone. Doesn't mean others aren't affected too, but I think Ferg wins this fight. Hopefully odds are where I want them.
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Idk how you'd think it affected RDA? Physically he looked the same. He looked great vs Alvarez. That fight is a textbook example of getting caught, because his defensive guard was positioned properly, the punch just clipped him in a bad spot and Eddie beasted him from there. But it was shaping up to be an amazing fight.

In a battle of aggression vs aggression I think RDA will light Ferg up, and can take him down at will. Its one thing for Ferg to have an active guard vs Lando Vannata, but hell get crushed underneath RDA
 
Joseph Budden said:
Idk how you'd think it affected RDA? Physically he looked the same. He looked great vs Alvarez. That fight is a textbook example of getting caught, because his defensive guard was positioned properly, the punch just clipped him in a bad spot and Eddie beasted him from there. But it was shaping up to be an amazing fight.

In a battle of aggression vs aggression I think RDA will light Ferg up, and can take him down at will. Its one thing for Ferg to have an active guard vs Lando Vannata, but hell get crushed underneath RDA
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I'm not saying USADA specifically because RDA lost to Eddie, just that if it's going to affect one of the two guys I'll roll the dice that it's the Brazilian over the American given what we've seen so far.

I think Ferg is simply more durable than RDA. Even when Ferg gets stunned (like vs Vanetta with a clean head kick) he just somehow regains his composure quickly and immediatly goes on the offensive. RDA hasn't shown that. He's terrific, but when he's run up against serious adversity I've yet to see him come back. And I just don't think you can be in a fight with the current version of Ferg without there being a time when he puts you in a less than good spot. I'm not sure about RDA's ability to take a good punch. Eddie has nice boxing, but he landed clean plenty on Cerrone in rd 1 of their fight and Cerrone was fine. To be fair none quite as flush as the one he landed on RDA. I don't want to get carried away and say RDA is chinny, that's taking it WAY too far. But, in terms of durability I give a clear edge to Ferg.

And as good as RDA's bjj is, I think taking Ferg down is tricky. He's a decent sized LW and is one of those guys with sneaky enough subs to even catch a legit grappling stud like RDA if he's not careful. Also, there's something mental that some guys go through when they reach the top of the mountain and then get knocked off it. This may not be RDA, but some guys don't react well. They find it harder to put in the time and effort in training, etc. It's something to consider.

Now, all this said I'm not gonna sit here and say I'd bet Ferg as a favorite (though I do favor him at maybe -140ish?). I think it's a close fight. There's plenty of outcomes that would not surprise me (including RDA just blitzing Ferg like he did Cerrone and finising early--it's certainly something RDA is capable of). But if I can get nice dog odds on Ferg, I'm on that for sure.
 
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