It looks like ChatGTP is smarter than Grok:
Tom Aspinall by TKO (ground-and-pound) in Round 2.
Why I’m leaning Aspinall
- Explosive starts + finishing threat everywhere. Aspinall owns the fastest average fight time among UFC heavyweights and one of the highest knockdown rates in the division’s history, reflecting how quickly he converts pressure into damage.
- Efficient, accurate offense. He lands a ton (8.07 SLpM) with elite accuracy (67%) and solid defense (65%), which pairs with his speed advantage.
- Grappling edge. We’ve seen Gane struggle when elite opponents forced clinch/takedown sequences (Ngannou’s wrestling, Jones’ quick submission). Aspinall has real submission chops (e.g., straight armbar of Volkov) and can mix takedowns with boxing to create a finishing sequence from top.
- Form & momentum. Since late 2023, Aspinall blitzed Pavlovich and then stopped Blaydes to cement top status, and he arrives as the defending champ here. Gane rebounded with wins after the Jones loss, but this is his third crack at undisputed gold.
How the fight likely plays out
- Early feel-out at range: Gane’s footwork, jab, and kicks can keep him safe for stretches and may draw out Round 1. He’s very accurate himself (61% striking accuracy) and hard to hit clean for long.
- Momentum shift via clinch or level change: Aspinall’s speed lets him close distance behind fast hands; once he forces an exchange on the cage or hits a reactive shot, top control and heavy punches can snowball. From there, the champion’s finishing instincts take over.
Bottom line
Gane’s best path is a disciplined, mobile kickboxing match over five rounds. But given Aspinall’s blend of speed, power, and opportunistic grappling, I think he eventually pins Gane against the fence, drags him down, and pours on strikes for a
Round 2 TKO. (Fight is UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane on Oct 25, 2025.)
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And even Copilot AI is smarter than Grok:
Prediction
Winner: Tom Aspinall by TKO.
How: Ground-and-pound or strikes after a late first-round knockdown.
Round: Round 1.
Rationale
Tom Aspinall has an overwhelming pattern of early finishes in his career and has repeatedly ended fights quickly, so striking power and explosive starts favor him in early exchanges. Oddsmakers list Aspinall as a clear favorite, which aligns with his finishing profile and physicality against a more rangy, technical striker like Ciryl Gane. Advanced matchup models and expert breakdowns also favor Aspinall’s probability of a finish based on pace, power, and grappling leverage.
Alternate outcome to watch for
If Gane successfully keeps the fight at range, uses superior footwork, and avoids early damage, the most likely alternate result is a decision win for Ciryl Gane by late-round control and volume striking.
