- Joined
- Feb 10, 2018
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According to Grok
Round 1: Cautious Feeling-Out, Gane Edges Control
Both start tentative, circling to gauge range—Aspinall's historical explosiveness (e.g., 17-second KO of Volkov) pushes him forward with feints and jabs, while Gane uses his jab and low kicks to maintain distance, echoing his setups against Tuivasa. Aspinall attempts an early clinch or takedown, but Gane stuffs it with his strong sprawl (seen in most fights). Gane lands cleaner volume strikes mid-round, including a teep kick that backs Aspinall off. No big damage, but Gane's output gives him the edge. Scoring: 10-9 Gane.
Round 2: Aspinall Pushes Pace, Gane Counters Effectively
Aspinall ramps up pressure, closing distance with combinations like in his Pavlovich fight, landing a solid body shot. Gane circles away, using lateral movement (historical strength vs. Rozenstruik) to avoid being cornered. Aspinall misses a big overhand, and Gane counters with hooks and a leg kick that slows Tom's advance. A brief clinch sees Aspinall land knees, but Gane breaks free without being taken down. Fatigue hints appear for Aspinall from constant pursuit. Scoring: 10-9 Gane (cumulative: 20-18 Gane).
Round 3: Aspinall Lands Big, But Gane Survives and Responds
Sensing he's behind, Aspinall explodes like in his Blaydes rematch, securing a takedown early with a double-leg against the cage. He lands ground-and-pound elbows (similar to Tybura sub), scoring damage but not finishing—Gane's defensive grappling (improved post-Ngannou) allows him to wall-walk up midway. Standing, Aspinall wobbles Gane with a right hand, but Gane recovers and tags Aspinall with a counter knee late, exploiting Tom's forward pressure. Scoring: 10-9 Aspinall (cumulative: 29-28 Gane).
Round 4: Fatigue Sets In, Gane Pulls Ahead
Aspinall looks gassed from wrestling efforts (untested in 5-rounders historically), moving heavier as Gane predicted in interviews. Gane, with proven endurance (5-round decisions), picks shots at range—jabs and uppercuts land cleanly, reminiscent of his Volkov dominance. Aspinall's strikes miss more, and a failed takedown attempt leaves him open to counters. Both sweaty and slipping, but Gane's technical edge shines in the attrition. Scoring: 10-9 Gane (cumulative: 39-37 Gane).
Round 5: Gane Closes Strong
Aspinall swings wildly for a hail-mary finish (his KO power always a threat), but slowed footwork makes him predictable. Gane, maintaining composure like in Tuivasa's late rounds, circles and lands a crisp combination that wobbles Aspinall. Pressing the advantage, Gane swarms with punches and a clinch knee, dropping Aspinall for a TKO stoppage—mirroring how Gane finished fatigued opponents historically. Result: Gane via TKO at 3:12 of Round 5.
Overall Analysis
This outcome favors Gane (60% likelihood in my estimation) because his historical striking volume and takedown defense neutralize Aspinall's early threats, dragging the fight into uncharted waters for Tom. Aspinall's quick finishes mean he's rarely tested late, while Gane's cardio from decisions gives him the edge in a war of attrition. If Aspinall lands early (his usual MO), he flips it—but for Gane to top, it's about survival and precision. Odds could shift with training adjustments, but based on past performances, this feels most plausible for a Gane win.
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