I'd say there is a big difference between what I want to happen, and what will happen. Would love to see JG win, but that means I have to count on Justin having a high fight IQ.
Hopefully Justin doesn't realize he's hurt when Topuria tees off on him, and Justin can push Ilia to the later rounds. I doubt it goes past the second round if JG chooses to brawl early. If he can keep his ego in check and not try to out-strike the striker, I think JG can pull off the upset.
If I were JG, I'd work the low kicks early and often while hunting for a takedown. Justin has to get the fight to the ground via however he can, and then fight heavy on top in the early rounds. If he can make Ilia carry his weight for the first 5-10 minutes, his odds of winning increase a lot in my opinion. JG's been fighting at LW basically his entire career, he comes to bang, and if he can get Ilia tired before turning it into a late brawl I think he can do it.
Pretty confident Ilia wins but it's definitely worth betting on JG though.