That's more of an MMA only thing, where, at HW, the difference between success and failure, for most fighters, isn't a handful of of miliseconds. The most precise counter-strikers would suffer, greatly, by that age (Machida, Liddell).I get it but it's highly speculative and there's the other side of the coin. 35 at heavyweight isn't old at all, very often it's prime age and Jones has a wealth of experience in MMA (partly due to his age) that Gane does not. And while not fighting competitively for a long time can negatively effect a fighter's performance when he returns (though sometimes barely if at all), there's no footage of Jones to study in the last 3 years and no footage of him at all at HW. So what does Gane have to study of Jones but film from 3+ years ago which could be wildly misleading? Perhaps this wildcard of unpredictability benefits Jones more than the inactivity harms him.
Say Gane shuts Jones down, beats him wide on points. Jones fans will inevitably say that Jones was washed. It doesn't matter how good he looks in defeat, they'll speculate that he would have done a lot better against Gane 10 years ago. The best argument imo that Jones wins the fight is that he wouldn't be taking it if he believed he had faded significantly. He's not that kind of fighter in my assessment.
The current top 5 heavyweights in boxing have an average age of 35. Joyce never looked better than in his most recent fight at 37. Lewis and Wlad were regarded as being better than ever at 35+, as were Tony Thompson, Valuev, Povetkin, Luis Ortiz and Ngannou. There was a 100M sprinter who was objectively in his absolute prime at 40, when he ran a personal PB of 9.93. 100M is also a sport where athletes typically hit their primes earlier than heavyweight combat sports (or powerlifters, marathon runners).That's more of an MMA only thing, where, at HW, the difference between success and failure, for most fighters, isn't a handful of of miliseconds. The most precise counter-strikers would suffer, greatly, by that age (Machida, Liddell).
Someone who uses range and reach like Jones might be able to get by, but the ability to still compete is more about styles and strategy than lack of physical decline. As Jones moves into and beyond his mid-30s, when fighters are able to get into range, they will be more successful making contact, and he is going to catch more flush shots than when his reflexes and fast-twitch reactions were in their prime years. Like I said, we won't know until we see him. NFL running backs are always pretty much done by time they hit 29. Just the miniscule loss of speed or reaction is the difference between being elite and not getting through the hole before it closes.
Ali lost his prime, and was a shell the brilliant, untouchable fighter he was before the US government sidelined him. He came back and was a completely different fighter. Still was great, but took at ton of punishment in wars where, previously, you couldn't put a glove on him. At HW. But his initial success was fueled by great reflexes and handspeed.
It makes an impact, on any and every athlete. There's no exceptions.
Ali was NOT "getting punched up" before legal battles. That's just ignorant. And believe me, no one, at the time, was making excuses for him in the sports world. Very few sports writers, at that time, didn't want to see him get his face smashed.The current top 5 heavyweights in boxing have an average age of 35. Joyce never looked better than in his most recent fight at 37. Lewis and Wlad were regarded as being better than ever at 35+, as were Tony Thompson, Valuev, Povetkin, Luis Ortiz and Ngannou. There was a 100M sprinter who was objectively in his absolute prime at 40, when he ran a personal PB of 9.93. 100M is also a sport where athletes typically hit their primes earlier than heavyweight combat sports (or powerlifters, marathon runners).
We can't make hard and fast rules here. Concepts like "prime" are dependent on an array of factors, often difficult or impossible to quantify (at least for spectators).
I don't agree with your statements about Ali, I believe they are myths to excuse his losses to Frazier and Norton. Ali was also getting punched up before his enforced retirement and comeback at 28, statistically his defence was relatively poor.
Ali was NOT "getting punched up" before legal battles. That's just ignorant. And believe me, no one, at the time, was making excuses for him in the sports world. Very few sports writers, at that time, didn't want to see him get his face smashed.
There are no sprinters doing world-class times or best times well into their 30s who have never failed a PED test.
The only Top Five HW over 35 is Wilder, and I think it's fair to say he's on the downside from his peak a few years ago.
I never said that fighters in MMA can't be competitive or elite into their 30s, because, more than boxing, sprinting, etc, there are multiple factors where the experience of the multiple aspects of the sport can help to offset the loss of speed or reflexes and explosiveness. What I'm saying is that loss happens, and it does. I'm saying automatically dismissing that the layoff and age can have a negative impact by saying, absolutely, that it won't happen is a denial of reality. You're missing huge portions of what I said in your rebuttal, here.
"Ali was NOT "getting punched up" before legal battles."
pre-28 year old Ali was dropped by Sonny Banks and all but sparked out by Henry Cooper. He had a war with Mildenberger where he ate plenty of flush shots and barely outlanded him over 11.5 rounds. Liston also outlanded him in their first fight according to Compubox. Doug Jones gave Ali a very close fight. If you watch Ali's fights rather than parroting myths you see a very different picture. For someone with that combination of height and speed in his era he had a very leaky defence. Ali generally fought better competition when he returned, like an inactive Frazier and Norton, and started losing. He wasn't as athletic but he had greater physical and mental maturity, mass and experience. Perhaps he would have lost certain fights he won without those things.
"And believe me, no one, at the time, was making excuses for him in the sports world."
Perhaps not at the time but Ali became a cult figure in the 70's and has been ever since. He's one of those figures who most people can't look at rationally. Even objective facts, like his affiliation with the Ku Klux Klan, get swept under the rug.
"There are no sprinters doing world-class times or best times well into their 30s who have never failed a PED test."
I expect that all top athletes are on PED's so it's a moot point. Ali also failed PED tests, for what that's worth (not much in my opinion).
"The only Top Five HW over 35 is Wilder"
Fury is 34, Usyk is 36, Wilder is 37, Joshua is 33, Joyce is 37.
I agree that all fighters decline with age at some point, that's just biology. But if Jones is getting in the ring with Gane then I assume that he's at or close to his best. I don't think he's happy to lie down for a cheque like a journeyman and I don't think he's the kind of guy who will pick up losses way past prime for the love of the sport. Perhaps Jones is delusional about whether he's slipped (if at all) but I doubt it, he seems like a fighter with a keen awareness of his limitations.
I trust Jones wouldn't enter the Octagon as a significant diminished fighter for reasons already explained. 3 years without a competitive fight is less likely to effect a man with such vast experience and who isn't say 40+. And as I said earlier it gives Jones the element of surprise as his LHW footage may be radically misleading, while Gane is going to be more or less the same Gane we saw against Tuivasa and Ngannou.Why would you assume someone getting in the ring with Gane is at or near his best when he hasn't fought, at all, in over three years? That's not a smart assumption. The only thing we know or can assume hasn't deteriorated due to age and inactivity is the cache surrounding his name.
I missed on Usyk. The rankings I was looking at had Ruiz in the Top Five, not Joyce.
No, it's not a mute point for sprinters when we talk about whether the effects of age are pretty much universal. Pointing to someone who is juiced as being in their actual "prime" is moving the goalposts pretty radically.
That Ali PED example is kind of ridiculous - what are you arguing here? Ali tested for a positive diuretic, AT THE AGE OF 38, before Larry Holmes showed the world how badly aged and faded he was over time.... so that's proof of, what? And he took them because he was embarrassed about his soft appearance, and wanted to look more trim. So, not sure what kind of point you think that would make.
The video of Mildenberger shows a lopsided fight, with Ali losing one or two rounds, at most, not taking much punishment and constantly slipping jabs throughout the fight. Against a fighter good enough to be fighting for the title. Not sure that you're disputing my point. Cooper flooring Ali was a one-shot deal, where he caught Ali show-boating and clowning him. Both Cooper fights were completely one-sided.
"I agree that all fighters decline with age at some point, that's just biology."
That was the ONLY thing I was saying, so what the fuck are we doing here? Nowhere do I say he have to assume that Jones has faded badly. The ONLY thing I said was that to go in and make a declaration that there can be no excuses because it's not a possibility, with him in his mid-30s after three years of no fights, is nuts, because "all fighters decline with age at some point."
As I said in my first response, we won't know until we see how Jones looks.
The problem is there is no assessment to make other than a subjective one. Yes, most will assume slippage if Gane pieces him up. You're ASSUMING otherwise, based on..... absolutely nothing, at all, so how is that better or less subjective.I trust Jones wouldn't enter the Octagon as a significant diminished fighter for reasons already explained. 3 years without a competitive fight is less likely to effect a man with such vast experience and who isn't say 40+. And as I said earlier it gives Jones the element of surprise as his LHW footage may be radically misleading, while Gane is going to be more or less the same Gane we saw against Tuivasa and Ngannou.
Some consider Ruiz top 5, I personally don't as I don't think he'd beat Wilder, Joshua or Joyce more often than not. All would be pretty clear favourites to beat him.
I assume all pro fighters are juicing at all ages. If an athlete is producing his best performance at 40 on drugs rather than 25 on drugs, he's in his prime at 40. Obviously that sprinter is a massive outlier in his sport. But modern heavyweights in combat sports are very often at or around their best at 35+, many such examples.
Ali getting busted for PED's is evidence of Ali using PED's. Maybe he used PED's in other fights and didn't get caught, testing was notoriously lax in those days. I don't hold it against him though and it's no doubt true that modern athletes have access to far more advanced drugs.
I don't see how the Cooper fights were "completely one-sided" when 1. Cooper landed something like 75% as many punches as Ali according to Compubox and 2. Cooper all but sparked Ali and Ali needed his corner to flagrantly break the rules to save him, which should have resulted in a DQ by the letter of the law. Cooper was also a LHW by modern standards. Ali won most of the rounds against Mildenberger but the punch stats were virtually even and again Milde was a very small relatively weak chinned fighter with little power. His best accomplishment as an amateur was winning the German LHW championship and he was a Euro champ as a pro. But his southpaw stance was enough to give "prime" Ali a lot of problems and take him to the 12th.
The way many nostalgists talk about 60's Ali is that he was virtually unhittable but it's clear watching these fights that he had an extremely leaky defence relative to his physical advantages. Would Cooper or Mildenberger, at around 6', 190 lbs with 73 reach, lay a glove on Tyson Fury boxing a defensive backfoot fight?
The problem with subjective assessments about "how Jones looks" is that if Gane schools him then most will assume he's slipped, probably badly. But there is no solid evidence that Jones beats Gane based on his run dominating blown up middleweights and going life and death with 6'4 LHW's.
Fedor was already past his best when he fought Arlovski in Jan 2009 and that's a provable fact.
I wouldn't call myself a huge fan but he's well past his primeJones nuthuggers will still say it's because he was past his prime
That kind of attitude isn't going to get you very far in the 36 hours of i-told-you-so's that will start Saturday night, regardless of who wins or how the fight goes.I wouldn't call myself a huge fan but he's well past his prime
Haha i know you're right but I've been saying for years that jones had lost a step. I truly believe jones at his absolute best we've seen him still loses to gane.That kind of attitude isn't going to get you very far in the 36 hours of i-told-you-so's that will start Saturday night, regardless of who wins.
True enough, but the disqualification was wrong even without the late stoppage. By the rules, an illegal strike results in a disqualification only if the opponent cannot continue due to the strike. The reason Hamill couldn't continue was because he had a separated shoulder, not because of anything to do with 12-6 elbows to his forehead.To this day I believe that the Hammill fight was merely a late stoppage.
More like inside of 3. Jones has had close rounds and been in trouble in plenty of fights, but never in the championship rounds. Even in the fights where Jones' win was "controversial," he clearly took rounds 4 and 5. One thing people don't talk about was how much better Jones's cardio was than that of the light-heavyweights - middleweights as claimed by many Jones haters - he fought. If Jones has anything like a similar cardio advantage at heavyweight, Gane's not going to get any real offense in rounds 4 and 5. Gane may have really good cardio for a heavyweight, but really good isn't close to matching Jones unless age has really caught up with Jones.If it's a close fight, Jones wins. In fact, if it goes to decision, Jones wins.
Gane needs a finish. So it's just a case of whether Gane can get it done inside 5.
"You're ASSUMING otherwise, based on..... absolutely nothing, at all"The problem is there is no assessment to make other than a subjective one. Yes, most will assume slippage if Gane pieces him up. You're ASSUMING otherwise, based on..... absolutely nothing, at all, so how is that better or less subjective.
Your reliance on CompuBox is kind of silly. It's a blunt, variable and often inaccurate tool based on SUBJECTIVE tracking of what people think they see. And asking people to do that from grainy, old TV footage, instead of ringside, makes those questionable numbers even more fraught with uncertainty.
Ali destroyed Cooper, in both fights. Did you watch the video you posted? Even in his best rounds, Mildenberger landed very few shots, fewer telling shots, and Ali was teeing off on him. Yes, his southpaw stance gave Ali problems because Ali never fought against southpaws - that was the first, and Ali only fought one other. There simply were no quality southpaws to get experience against, and certainly not to train with. Back then and into the 80s, southpaws, if they wanted a career, were converted to orthodox style.
It's pretty clear you don't actually know much about boxing, given the arguments you are making. For instance, when you talk about how Liston was close to even in punches landed in the first fight, while seemingly oblivious to the fact that Liston rubbed ointment in Ali's eyes, and had an entire round where a blind Ali just covered up and allowed Liston to use him as a punching bag, which skewed the stats.
Here's what one of the most reputable sports writers had to say about that CompuBox assessment -
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/box...the-numbers-legacy/10zpedj878ucp1j9uesixqshfm
I am favouring Jones, but this is the complete reality, even if he wins. It is not a question of is he gonna be the same, HE CANNOT be the same he was after career of his length and level.We talk about fighters' "primes". Jon has been fighting for 15 years as a pro at this point. He looked very beatable in his last 2 fights 3+ years ago. Now he's moving up and fighting a guy who is definitely in his prime in Gane. He's not going to win this fight.