ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II BETS

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Naught2Sixty, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. thewiggo

    thewiggo Yellow Belt

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    Teymur £120 for £240
    Teymur KO/TKO £20 for £90

    Aldo + Perez + Good £50 for £840

    Aldo £45 for £108
    Aldo TKO/KO £13 for £123

    Assuncao SUB £15 for £210

    Bibulatov SUB £22 for £143

    Perez £80 for £236

    Alves £35 for £101
    Alves TKO/KO £20 for £160

    Albini SUB £15 for £82 (more of a hedge as I have Rozen DEC in quite a few parlays)

    Lyman Good DEC £24 for £216

    Good to win, land most sig strikes and most takedowns £25 for £525

    Also got a lot of parlays on, wayyy too many to type out. Will let you know if ones hits though!

    Good luck Sherdoggers!!
     
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  2. Xuh

    Xuh Black Belt

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    0.5u Aldo
    0.5u Borella
    1u Matt Damion Maia

    #highstakes #highroller #yolo
     
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  3. EndlessCritic

    EndlessCritic Gold Belt

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    Main plays:

    Frota
    Ledet
    Oliveira
    Maia
    Moicano
    Moraes
    Bibulatov -3.5
     
  4. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    5u on Max Griffin ML at -192
    3u on Johnny Walker ML at -200
    1.3u on Rozenstruik ML at +100 (should have waited for even better odds, yuck)
    4u on Santos-Borella GTD at -185
     
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  5. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    1u Moraes -151

    1u Moicano -129

    0.05u Good RD3 +1325

    0.12u Oliveira +833

    0.75u Ledet +250

    0.025u Teymur DEC/Good KO/Moicano DEC/Moraes DEC +11412

    Bought out of most of my Do Bronx action with the big odds shift. Probably set and will look for live bet spots.
     
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  6. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    Lost about 10U on the last card.

    Assuncao +195 3U
    Aldo +150 3U
    Teymur +105 2U
    Ledet +225 1U
    Bibulatov DEC -110 1.1U

    Only fav I feel compelled to bet is Maia but decided against it. There are probably other good dogs on this card as well but I think all the dogs I bet besides maybe Ledet should be favored.
     
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  7. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Risk $6,697.75

    Marlon Moraes (-150) vs Raphael Assuncao $300.00 for $200.00
    Marlon Moraes wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+275) $40.00 for $110.00
    Raphael Assuncao wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+1025) $25.00 for $256.25

    Renato Moicano (-135) vs Jose Aldo $540.00 for $400.00

    Demian Maia (-150) vs Lyman Good $300.00 for $200.00
    Demian Maia (-150) vs Lyman Good $300.00 for $200.00
    Demian Maia wins inside distance (+140) $50.00 for $70.00
    Demian Maia wins by submission (+165) $50.00 for $82.50
    Demian Maia/Lyman Good Under 1½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
    Demian Maia/Lyman Good won't go 3 round distance (-180) $180.00 for $100.00

    David Teymur (+102) vs Chales Oliveira $100.00 for $102.00
    David Teymur (+100) vs Charles Oliveira $100.00 for $100.00
    David Teymur wins by TKO/KO (+309) $35.00 for $108.15
    Charles Oliveira wins by submission (+158) $65.00 for $102.70
    Charles Oliveira wins in round 1 (+300) $40.00 for $120.00
    David Teymur wins in round 2 (+800) $25.00 for $200.00
    David Teymur wins in round 3 (+1200) $20.00 for $240.00

    Johnny Walker (-207) vs Justin Ledet $207.00 for $100.00
    Johnny Walker wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+170) $75.00 for $127.50
    Johnny Walker/Justin Ledet Under 2½ (-132) $132.00 for $100.00

    Sarah Frota (+185) vs Livia Renata Souza $200.00 for $370.00
    Sarah Frota wins by TKO/KO +(725) $25.00 for $181.25
    Livia Renata Souza wins by submission (+185) $50.00 for $92.50
    Sarah Frota/Livia Renata Souza Under 2½ (-130) $130.00 for $100.00

    Markus Perez (+145) vs Anthony Hernandez $200.00 for $290.00

    Thiago Alves/Max Griffin Over 2½ (-207) $155.25 for $75.00

    Taila Santos (-170) vs Mara Romero Borella $170.00 for $100.00
    Taila Santos wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+500) $30.00 for $150.00

    Junior Albini (+110) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $220.00
    Junior Albini (+110) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $220.00
    Junior Albini (+110) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $100.00 for $110.00
    Junior Albini (+109) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik ~$448.50 for ~$488.87
    Junior Albini (+105) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $210.00
    Junior Albini (+100) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $300.00 for $300.00
    Junior Albini (+100) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $200.00
    Junior Albini (+100) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $200.00
    Junior Albini wins by TKO/KO (+270) $50.00 for $135.00
    Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Under 1½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00
    Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Under 1½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00
    Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik won’t start round 3 (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
    Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik won't go 3 round distance (-205) $205.00 for $100.00
    Junior Albini/Jairzinho Rozenstruik won't go 3 round distance (-240) $240.00 for $100.00

    Felipe Colares/Geraldo de Freitas Under 2½ (+112) $75.00 for $84.00

    Ricardo Ramos (-115) vs Said Nurmagomedov $230.00 for $200.01

    Magomed Bibulatov -3½ points (-175) vs Rogerio Bontorin $70.00 for $40.00
     
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  8. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Moraes -166 $500

    Aldo +151 $500

    Maia -171 $750
    Maia DEC +400 $45

    Teymur +110 $150
    Teymur DEC +375 $100

    Souza -185 $100

    Perez NSC +140 $100

    Santos -188 $250
    Borella NSC -115 $230
    Borella SUB +585 $25

    Griffin/Alves O2.5 -188 $200

    Albini sub +940 $45

    Ramos -125 $100

    Bibulatov DEC -110 $200


    Fights to end in SUB
    O2.5 -160 $100
    O3.5 +185 $20
    O4.5 +515 $10
    O5.5 +1475 $5

    Tiny card for me. Looking to add to Ramos but need closer to evens.
     
  9. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    Good luck everyone!
     
  10. hugdeeznuts

    hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

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    How does that make you feel?
    Assuncao
    Aldo
    Maia
    Teymur
    Walker
    Livia/Bibulatov
    Borella
    Griffin
    Albini
    Ramos
     
  11. Dooze

    Dooze Purple Belt

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    Increased my unit value from last year since I was just betting multiple units to account for my bigger bankroll. First event since doing so, hopefully not a nightmare start.

    2u Aldo @ 2.20
    0.5u Aldo KO @ 8.50
    0.1u Aldo KO r3 @ 29.00
    0.5u Ledet @ 2.75
    1u Oliveira most takedowns @ 1.80
    1u Griffin @ 1.50
    1u Maia @ 1.57
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  12. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    1u Assuncao @ 2.75 = -1u
    0.75u Aldo @ 2.25 = 0,9375u
    1u Aldo KO/TKO @ 10.00 = 9u

    2.5u Maia @ 1.61 = 1,525u
    1u Oliveira @ 2.25 = 1,25u
    1.5u Walker @ 1.53 = 0,795u
    1u Perez @ 2.87 = 1,87u

    0.5u Alves @ 2.75 = 0,875u
    3u Albini @ 2.00 = -3u
    0.5u Ramos @ 1.80 = -0,5u

    Total = +11,7525u

    Was not looking good early, but thank the supreme powers of the universe for Aldo and Maia! Still can't believe that Aldo to win by KO was +900!
     
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  13. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    +$1238, would've been happy with any profit on this card.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  14. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    What would have been my second 4/4 sweep in a row with +7.7u is +0.0u (made $0.40) thanks to the Alves robbery.

    Things to learn and regrets;

    -Think very heavily about whether to bet against Brazilian fighters facing non-Brazilians in Brazil.
    -Should have waited on Rozenstruik when I saw the Albini circle-jerk in this forum, as he closed at a far better +135. I would have put at least 2 units on that too, not just 1.3.
    -Happy that I went 4 units deep on Santos-Borella at the insane value of -185, but should have fired off at least a unit or two more. Think I just got a little gunshy with how much I was risking on the card already.
     
  15. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Yellow Belt

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    Good night with a tick under 15u profit. Bit of luck with hometown decisions but then again had a few close decisions/props just miss also. Hope everyone went well see you all next week where Adesanya will be next no1 contender
     
  16. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    -3.7u. Cant afford to be losing more. Gonna be paper betting for awhile.
     
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  17. Dooze

    Dooze Purple Belt

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    + 7.6u profit.

    Pretty solid night, turns out I had already bet 1u on Aldo earlier in the day that I forgot about, so that was nice checking this morning.

    I think my approach was generally alright, trying to stick to mostly singles rather than props (I used to mostly bet props and/or accumulators). As such I missed out on a few other things I was very tempted by (Maia and Oliveira sub the main 2), but still managed to win bets on their fights I guess.

    The Ledet bet I knew the risks and like I said in the breakdown post I did for that fight, he was likely going to be at risk of getting finished those first few minutes so no real surprise there, if I was able to stay up and live bet it instead I would have, and avoided the bet altogether by waiting.

    Griffin fight was just a hometown robbery really. I factored it into my decision making somewhat by only going 1u instead of 2u on Griffin but if that fight was in any other country I would happily bet it again the same way.

    Overall, pretty good.
     
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  18. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    About 16 units tonight which is great. Swapped to Moraes last minute at -149 putting 4u on him but keeping the Assuncao bet I had. Teymur melted but all my other main bets won.
     
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  19. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Blue Belt

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    Hindsight 20/20
    My fatal mistake was not researching enough the wrestling chops of Albini. Apparently not enough depth in wrestling and grappling, combined with mediocre cardio and lack of dynamism led to that just awful performance vs somebody that novice on the ground. He still could've won that, but tough luck for me, huh...

    Shades of D.Lewis in Jairzinho's fighting style I would say. Do just enough and don't get tired more than your opponent and wait for opportunity for swangin' and win. Simple. For HW this is gonna lead you to the title. Or maybe not. Black Beast has tons of UFC fights and lotta time to test his strategy and improve it over time. You have to fight as regular as him and a lot of bums, not likely if you are thrown to the upper echelon right away and/or fight twice per year.

    I think the lesson we have to learn about Aldo is that he still got it. And his achilles heel are boxers. Pressure boxers I mean. Moicano is more of a kicker. I should've know that, I've done researches on his style in the past and I saw that. But reluctant to bet on this fight, I just forgot about it. I still think Moicano could've won that fight, but he had to fight against type here. And this is a tall task v some ex champ, albeit on his way down.

    Very happy for Do Bronx. He kinda surprised me with that sharp striking game. I knew he improved his game there and he is not so wild and sloppy like before, but was curious about how these chages will look vs somebody like Teymur. Very well done. Teymur was fighting not to lose and was scared the whole time. If he actually tried to stand his ground maybe the outcome would be different.

    I'm happy for everybody that made money from that event. I lost 5u and if that was not enough of a hit, I was eliminated from the L-challenge. :D I was so close to pick Maia for the challenge, but really thought Albini is gonna submit that dude the moment the fight go to the ground. Well, someone got submitted...
     
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  20. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    Thank youuuu Perez and Borella
     
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