ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II BETS

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Naught2Sixty, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    What you got?

    2.5u Frota +185
    .2u Frota ITD +415

    1u Ledet +175
     
  2. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    1u Perez @ 2.87
    1u Oliveira @ 2.25
    3u Albini @ 2.00
    0.5u Alves @ 2.75
    1.5u Walker @ 1.53 (had money on Ledet @ 3.00, but when the line changed I saw my chance to jump fence for free...)
    0.5u Ramos @ 1.80
    0.75u Aldo @ 2.25
    1u Aldo KO/TKO @ 10.00 (!)
    2.5u Maia @ 1.61
    1u Assuncao @ 2.75

    In my bets, underdogs and Brazilians seem to be the dominant themes!
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
    Jordan3399, MT6ix, t6p and 3 others like this.
  3. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    1u Assuncao ML +200
    0.1u Assuncao KO +900
    1u Assuncao-Moraes FDNGTD +150

    3u Aldo ML +150
    0.5u Aldo KO +650
    0.25u Moicano R3 KO +1600
    0.125u Moicano R3 Sub +3400

    0.5u Maia Good FGTD +210

    2u Alves ML at +195
    0.125u Alves KO +700
    0.125u Alves R3 +2000
    1u Alves-Griffin DNGTD +130

    1u Ramos ML at +105

    1u Albini-Rozen FGTD +195

    3u Borella at +165
    0.25u Borella Sub +500

    0.5u Bontorin ML +350
    0.1u Bontorin Sub +1000

    2u Teymur ML +100
    0.25u Teymur KO +350
    0.5u Oliveira-Teymur - Neither Fighter lands a TD +500

    0.1u Renata Souza KO +1000
    0.25u Renata Souza Sub +210
    0.5u Renata Souza ITD +150
    0.125u Frota R1 +800
    1u Souza-Frota DNGTD -120
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    1u Oliveira +180

    0.75u Ledet +250

    That’s all so far, will most likely be adding.
     
  5. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    2 U on Ramos +110
    2 U on Aldo +130
    1 U on Walker -230
    1 U on Maia -175
     
  6. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    Man, you managed to pick up those bets at very impressive odds! Nice!
     
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  7. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Cheers, I get lucky being in the UK on them as there's a time delay between the odds changing between the US and UK so get to pretty much see the future in terms of line movement.
     
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  8. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    We couldn't differ more on Oliveira/Teymur, but I'm literally the same on the others besides the Moicano props.
     
  9. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Yeah I was worried I was a little deep on Aldo and liked the prop odds as a slight hedge. Really interested to see how Oliveira-Teymur plays out now, should be a great fight while it lasts, one of them should be getting a POTN bonus.
     
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  10. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    Having looked at some more tape I feel very uncomfortable having Ledet over Walker. I'm trying to bet according to a model I'm trying out, and not going by my gut, but the gut (and eyes and reason) are screaming that Walker is going to absolutely destroy him.
     
  11. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    1.5u Perez

    1.5u Borella

    Is value.

    Edit: up to 5U Markus Perez<Moves>

    Edit: 1.5u Sarah Frota

    Is value

    Edit: 1.15U on junior albini.....smh
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
    BaruchSpinoza and Naught2Sixty like this.
  12. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Green Belt

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    Assuncao-Moraes Draw - 0.1u for 7u

    Maia ML - 2u for 1.2u
    Maia Sub - 1u for 1.5u

    Teymur ML - 3u for 2.5u
    Teymur KO - 0.5u for 1.4u

    Frota ML - 1u for 1.9u

    Alves ML - 1u for 2u

    Ledet ML - 1u for 1.8u

    Bontorin ML - 0.5u for 1.8u
    Bontorin Sub - 1u for 9.5u

    Albini ML - 2u for ~2u
    Starts Round 3 - 1u for 1.2u

    Borella ML - 1.5u for 2.4u

    Hernandez+Moraes - 1u for 1u

    Still trying to figure out how to best play Moicana against Aldo. Fully expect Bontorin to get smashed a la Vinicius but can't resist +950 on a guy with 11/14 of his wins via sub. Toning down my unit outlay here after getting demolished on ESPN+ 1.
     
  13. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    An mma betting model...bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for him
     
  14. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Aldo 1u
    Assuncao 1u
    Alves 1u
    Ramos 1u
     
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  15. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Prices my dude.
     
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  16. Broe.

    Broe. Orange Belt

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    moicano x 1.75 800$
    moicano x 1.8 300$

    ramos x 1.95 600$

    walker x1.5 400$

    oliviera x 2,4 500$

    Good x 2.78 400$
     
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  17. bossman071

    bossman071 White Belt

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    Curious does anyone post there plays elsewhere? Love lots of your insights on fights just forget to check Sherdog quite often. Would be nice to get notified one some players plays once posted. Best of luck to you all!
     
  18. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    betmma.tips is a good site for this
     
  19. bossman071

    bossman071 White Belt

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    I have looked at that site... does anybody post there as well? Or mainly just here.
     
  20. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    Well I clearly don't have much faith in it myself, when the odds shortened a bit on Ledet I chickened out and took about half out with a hedge on Walker (edited my original post, so now "only" have 1u on Ledet).
     

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