Elections Elizabeth Warren likely is running for President

[TeTe]

Do you really believe this will happen. The Libertarian vote is a metric of dissatisfaction with the Republican candidate much like the Greens are for the Dems. 1-2% is probably a more realistic expectation. If Libertarians get 10%, anyone(and I mean anyone) even Hillary would be able to beat Trump easily and she might be the least unlikeable person in the US.

Well, Gary Johnson went from 1 million to 3.3 million from one election to the next.

Ten million is probably unrealistic, but like you said, depends on who's running. I'm sure there's plenty of conservatives that are fed up with Trump that will either A) just not vote rather vote for a Dem or B) Vote third party.

Hell, if Perot could do it, than any other third party could.

 

[PainIsLIfe]

Sad is that in 2013/2014 Warren was the progressive movement's number one choice. She decided to withhold her endorsement for Bernie when he was in a dead heat in her home state and now nobody in the Progressive movement wants anything to do with her.

Warren is the candidate who's polled the worst against Trump over the last few years and while most people in her situation would have done the Native American thing given the huge advantage in law school admissions declaring yourself a URM(Black, Mexican or Native specifically) people are going t


This was 2011. Before the Bin Laden killing. Presidential cycles are 2 years. Very likely we will have Democratic candidates leading polls or being near the top of polls this year who'll decide not to run. In 2015 Biden decided not to run and was leading or doing well in polls most of that year.

It has the primary polls listed back to 2011. Trump was listed 9th in the highest one I see before OBLs assasination.

 

[ferrisjso]

It has the primary polls listed back to 2011. Trump was listed 9th in the highest one I see before OBLs assasination.

I remember very clearly he was second at some point. I remember it from Cable not from RCP though.

 

[ferrisjso]

Well, Gary Johnson went from 1 million to 3.3 million from one election to the next.

Ten million is probably unrealistic, but like you said, depends on who's running. I'm sure there's plenty of conservatives that are fed up with Trump that will either A) just not vote rather vote for a Dem or B) Vote third party.

Hell, if Perot could do it, than any other third party could.

That was because a lot more right of center were willing to protest a Trump vote than a Romney vote. Don't think that some resistance is there, remember this election was a month after the Access Hollywood tape. The Green Party vote went up by almost exactly the same percent, 3x as many people willing to protest Hillary compared to Obama(though Repubs also had that guy from Utah who got another percent). Really all that showed is that less people were willing to bite the bullet on nominees they weren't enthusiastic about. It's possible the Libertarians get less than they did in 2012(though more likely IMO they get 1-2%) because I do think right leaning voters are more enthusiastic about Trump than Romney or Trump in 2016. Think 2016 was the ceiling for the modern protest vote kind of third party candidates.

Perot is not a normal case. Perot was a billionaire who could Bloomberg his way into office and he was let into the debates. The second time he was also far less successful.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

She doesnt stand a chance, there is so much to be used against her, to undermine her via her own words, attempts to claim minority victimhood...hell, even the very items in her own home is going to be her undoing.

Tomi just had that lying around lol

 

[bobgeese]

What you are saying was implied is just things you're inventing in your head. He


He said she was found to be more popular via the popular vote.

She objectively was. If 3 people like you and 4 like the other guy, he's more popular than you, regardless of electoral ("legal" as Rod put it) outcome.

What do you take the term "popular vote" to mean?

Popular people are liked.


This was a hold your nose election. There is no debate or spin you can put on that.


Despite Hillary’s 12 poll driven reinventions, she just isn’t likable.


Nothing can change that.

 

[bobgeese]

It means that Trump isnt as popular as you guys think, it was an statistical anomaly. A few thousand voters here and there.

As who thinks?


Me?


I think the majority of sheople are fucking clueless, they don’t give a shit about politics.


And again, popular people are liked.

Hillary Clinton isn’t.

 

[bobgeese]

Why? She’s 1/1024 black like you and me....us racists?

 

[cincymma79]

 

[bobgeese]

She’s off to a hell of a start...

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Well, Gary Johnson went from 1 million to 3.3 million from one election to the next.

Ten million is probably unrealistic, but like you said, depends on who's running. I'm sure there's plenty of conservatives that are fed up with Trump that will either A) just not vote rather vote for a Dem or B) Vote third party.

Hell, if Perot could do it, than any other third party could.

Perot was a billionaire who used his own money to buy air-time.
They changed the rules so that can't happen again. So it will be very difficult for a fringe candidate to get the kind of result Ross got.
We need a high profile candidate, or a lower profile candidate to create a higher profile for him/herself in an equally creative way as Ross, to get the kind of third party support this country deserves.

 

[TeTe]

Perot was a billionaire who used his own money to buy air-time.
They changed the rules so that can't happen again. So it will be very difficult for a fringe candidate to get the kind of result Ross got.
We need a high profile candidate, or a lower profile candidate to create a higher profile for him/herself in an equally creative way as Ross, to get the kind of third party support this country deserves.

This is true.. the DC machine hates anything that goes against the status quo. Hence the reason Bernie got buried. Theyre in over their heads with Trump and he's in over his head as well. At a minimum, it's quality entertainment at times. Hopefully it ends in 2020

 

[Anung Un Rama]

I prefer 3rd party to be a strong option as well but I think there is a lot of truth to what people were saying earlier. Perot was a billionaire funding himself and at his peak had the best campaign for 3rd party in 100 years. Which turned out to be a 19% vote and 0 electoral votes. The way things are now no one can win 3rd party, and would do no different than what Perot did. Which was ensure one candidate lost and one candidate won by splitting up some votes.

In Bernie's case, he can't run 3rd party because he would simply ensure the Republican candidate won, rather than win himself, so he likely would never attempt it.

There is more to Perot's run than the end results. He really shot himself in the foot twice down the stretch. I think he pulled out once or twice.
That ruined him in the general, but prior to that he was polling 1st or 2nd.

edit: And if a party conspires against one of its candidates, even if its not their preferred candidate, then that candidate should run third party 10/10 times, and if they lose they can blame themselves until they uncorrupt themselves.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

That's also true. But do you think he would have had a chance to legitimately win the holy grail if not for that? All things considered? Or do you think someone like Bernie would be able to win 3rd party?

It think it would have been close. Sanders' platform was based on many of the same issues that resonated with Trump supporters, look no further than the rust belt where Clinton got beaten. He also resonated with independents who aren't represented in many (most) of the primaries and the liberal base of the Democratic Party.

 

[KeepItRealist]

Personally I think it's time she addressed slavery practiced by her Native American ancestors. It existed in some places for decades after Emancipation in the South. It's time to address that dark history of the indigenous people and think about taking down those statues of Powhatan and pretty much all Native Americans because pretty much every tribe practiced slavery.

 

[PEB]

A good summation of why Warren will never win the Bernie left of the Democratic party.

 

[Viva]

Looking more and more like a Trump victory in 2020.

 

[PEB]

Looking more and more like a Trump victory in 2020.

I don't think so establishment dems have already kneecap progressives the first day of office with that PayGo stunt. When AOC was being sworn in Nancy was really running the show. These new progressives are going to crippled out of the gate. A total of 17 of them and only 3 voted against PayGo. This is going to be a long period of getting in line with the Pelosi wing.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

 

[bobgeese]

A good summation of why Warren will never win the Bernie left of the Democratic party.

Anecdotal, however


Hanging with my friend today, big time liberal (super uninformed, not hating, just putting in context. Likely the average white male democrat Voter). He’s a Bernie bro, but he did mention Warrens name, but he’s not trying to hear anything but Bernie right now. I did ask if he was serious enough to not vote, he declined and said he would hold his nose and vote for whoever.

While it’s still a dem vote, not a good sign for name recognition among 2020 hopefuls. That’s good news for someone like Biden though.