if we see khabib fight again, I don't think he fights before fall. Sep/Oct Just like the last two times. It will be in the UAE again, unless specified somewhere else, imo. Islam last time I heard wants to fight in feb. Its possible feb than maybe April if he really wants to push it
The leverage right now is sitting out. Is islam wins against two top 10s, one being lower top 10 and possibly a top 5, how can the ufc deny him a title shot? Hell, khabib might stipulate, I'll come back if islam gets the next title shot when I vacate. I don't know how likely it is he comes back. I just think it depends on the success or failure of islam. Going either way to making him come back. If islam is progressing and getting hype, he may come back defend than leave. If islam isn't progressing, he may stipulate islam gets a top 5 opponent on His title card then he will come back. If islam suffers a setback and its clear he has ways to go to a title shot(losing twice in a row or something like that), he may come back
I think it just all depends how he handles Islam's run imo