International Covid-19 Breaking News v17: Russian PM infected

[genecop]

I am tired of this

Then Quit, did you ever try the patch?

 

[monster zero]

Honestly Canada has lost 3000 people to Corona out of 31m. It's a complete blood bath up here, we have lost 0.0000967% of our population to Covid.

Absolute bedlam. I am glad I lost 100k/year job, have been put on defacto house arrest for two months, and will be looking for work in the recession.

 

[A Lurker]

Wow, I really thought by v17 we'd have really worked this thing out, seeing as though everyone in here is a top level economist, scientist, doctor and apiarist; who only makes sweet sweet love to 10s.

Congratulations on spotting this coming, but sorry I very much doubt there is one person in here who is seriously helping on the way forward (if you are haven't you got better things to do). Its the political subforum of a Karate Forum you silly gooses/ geese/ non binary birds.

The flaming in here is so hot, you guys probably didn't even spot the picture of an elephant I posted several posts back - the brain works in mysterious ways.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Tbc, a positive anitibody test to coronavirus does not necessarily mean you are immune

 

[Wolfbrigade]

Tbc, a positive anitibody test to coronavirus does not necessarily mean you are immune

Source please

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Source please

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-what-antibody-tests-tell-us


Also not all antibody tests are accurate
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/4...-assays-scrutinized-accuracy-ucsf-uc-berkeley

 

[Headkicktoleg]

I think it's pretty obvious why some posters never want the lockdown lifted.


Across the country, some laid-off workers are receiving more from unemployment than their jobs paid
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/politics/unemployment-benefits-higher-than-work-wages/index.html

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Then go to bed little man, you have no business presenting yourself as some sort of Objective Science Man with your useless charts.

I thought you were better than this .

 

[Drunken Angel]

@monster zero , Christ you're Canadian? You live in my country? Chilling. Albertan confirmed.

Now, since your reasoning faculty appears to be impaired from drink or chronic neglect let me break this down for you: Canada's numbers are low BECAUSE of the lockdown. You're acting like COVID was allowed to run rampant and flamed out on its own. This is not the case.

 

[IDL]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-what-antibody-tests-tell-us


Also not all antibody tests are accurate
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/4...-assays-scrutinized-accuracy-ucsf-uc-berkeley

They aren't all accurate, but the study I read about them was that the very worst of the kits was around 90% accurate, with the best being 99% - 100%.

That means to me, that if you are doing antibody testing as a means to estimate the true number infections in a population, then it's not bad and I assume they will favour the more accurate kits to use.

 

[Raptac]

Honestly Canada has lost 3000 people to Corona out of 31m. It's a complete blood bath up here, we have lost 0.0000967% of our population to Covid.

Absolute bedlam. I am glad I lost 100k/year job, have been put on defacto house arrest for two months, and will be looking for work in the recession.

You lucky ungrateful bastard you made it you alive. Your lucky you maybe get some welfare now that will cost you ten fold in taxes in the future. You get to sit at home rather than be oppressed by the evils of capitalism, your no longer a 100k a year corporate whore you are now free to go from the couch to the bed or risk a 800 ticket for walking on the side walk. And it all for your own benefit.

 

[Wadtucket]

I thought you were better than this .

Good argument, thanks for the soy interjection

 

[The Audience]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-what-antibody-tests-tell-us

Also not all antibody tests are accurate
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/4...-assays-scrutinized-accuracy-ucsf-uc-berkeley

Will antibody tests for the coronavirus really change everything?​

Some points to note:

...most kits have not undergone rigorous testing to ensure they’re reliable

...Kits need to be trialled on large groups of people to verify their accuracy: hundreds of people who have had COVID-19, and hundreds of people who haven’t ...But so far, most test assessments have involved only some tens of individuals because they have been developed quickly.

...A high-quality test should achieve 99% or more sensitivity and specificity..infection. In an analysis of 9 commercial tests available in Denmark, 3 lab-based tests had sensitivities ranging 67–93% and specificities of 93–100%. In the same study, five out of six point-of-care tests had sensitivities ranging 80–93%, and 80-100% specificity, but some kits were tested on fewer than 30 people
...It took several years to develop antibody tests for HIV with more than 99% specificity,

...Point-of-care tests are even less reliable than tests being used in labs, adds Smith. This is because they use a smaller sample of blood — typically from a finger prick — and are conducted in a less controlled environment than a lab, which can affect their performance. They should be used with caution

...To have protective immunity, the body needs to produce a certain type of antibody, called a neutralizing antibody, which prevents the virus from entering cells...Even if it becomes clear that most people do develop neutralizing antibodies, most tests currently don’t detect them. And tests that do are more complex to develop and not widely available.

 

[Sano]

Lol


Wow, can't wait


No, you're the one asserting that you achhktuallyyyy know better than Dr. Johan Giesecki, PhD


He doesn't



I have referred you to actual experts (e.g. Johan Giesecki) who back up my claims. I guess you refuse to engage with that?


Then go to bed little man, you have no business presenting yourself as some sort of Objective Science Man with your useless charts.

See this is when I know you're not serious, when you use "charts" as a derogative term. No one in your position would attack the chart without addressing the data. It's a cheap trick.

I know that Giesecke claims that he believes that by the end of it, it will resemble the flu. I saw the interview before you posted it and he didn't answer the question to a satisfying degree, and we can simply contrast it with Ferguson, or any number of epidemiologists that see if it differently, if the appeal to authority is all we need. You didn't say what Giesecke did though.

You said this 10 days ago, claiming that if 30% of the population in Stockholm were infected by may 1, then the COVID-19 IFR would be lower than that of a normal season flu:

Sweden now reports that 600,000 people in Stockholm will have been infected by May 1st, which would be 1/3 of the total population in the city. ~99% of cases go unreported due to being completely asymptomatic or mild. That would suggest the true infection fatality rate is lower than a normal seasonal flu, and that Sweden is close to herd immunity. Nothingburger close to confirmed, Sweden wins again.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/600-000-smittade-i-stockholm

I responded with that is not true, based on the numbers. I calculated that Sweden would have about 2.665 deaths if the trend continued untill May 1. Today you have 2.586 deaths and we're one day away from May 1, it'll be almost exactly what the trend showed. Then based on the relative percentage of deaths in Stockholm, the IFR would be several magnitutes above the seasonal flu. Add in a much greater infection rate. I also said that Sweden would manage, and it wont be the end of the world. You will be fine, but that facts are facts. As well as we have to acknowledge the serious mitigation measures that Sweden has taken, and that the economy is still taking a hit.

Since @Wadtucket is spamming the thread with Sweden news and claiming that the IFR is lower than seasonal flu and that countries that "locked down" (again, this exact definition varies from country to country) did not do any better, in any sense, here's some data.

It was mentioned that a study using a random sample of the population, showed that by May 1 about 30% of Stockholm could have been infected by COVID-19. If we assume that is correct, we can somewhat calculate the IFR at that point. Right now Sweden has 1.765 deaths, and has been averaging 90 deaths per day for the last 10 days. Which would mean if the trend continues in the next 10 days untill May 1, Sweden will have roughly 2.665 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Stockholm right now has 1.022 deaths, which would be 57% of the total in Sweden. So at May 1, we can assume that Stockholm will have 1.520 deaths. Stockholm has a population of about 974.073 people. If 30% of those have been infected at that time, that would be 292.221 infected people. Now, 1520 deaths out of 292.221 infected would be an IFR/mortality rate of 0,52%. The flu has an IFR of roughly 0,05%. So with these figures, COVID-19 would have an IFR that is 10 times higher than the flu. That's the first thing. Higher than I would honestly have expected actually, but definitely not a doomsday scenario (I need to underscore this because otherwise it will be used to obfuscate). Which we already knew.
https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/har-sprider-sig-coronaviruset/

Now, comparing Sweden to the two other Scandinavian countries, Denmark and Norway. Two countries that closed down fast and took it seriously early. Looking at the death per million and the trend:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

This is a logarithmic graph, not a linear one. What it shows is that Sweden has 10 times the per capita deaths compared to Norway, and 3 times that of Denmark. However it's still trending up and they are behind the curve, which has been going down in the other countries for a while now. Doesn't exactly support the argument that closing down more strictly didn't work/prevent deaths. Also, Denmark has a much higher population density, about 5 times that of Sweden, so we should have been hit harder.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/denmark-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/

Moreover, COVID-19 deaths seems to be underreported in Sweden as the rise in excess mortality isn't all accounted for:

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Notice how Denmark and Norway have no excess, but Sweden is at very high for week 15, which will be the same for week 16, and most likely 17 and 18 as well (all you yanks that can't locate Scandinavia on a map, no shame I couldn't locate most of your states either. Just google it).

So, in summary, COVID-19 does not have an IFR lower than the flu in Sweden. Most likely it's 10 times higher. Also, Sweden is doing significantly worse than neighboring countries were more strict in their lockdown measures were taken early on. Now, this doesn't mean that Sweden wont manage. They will, and they'll get out of this alright. We know this, the world wont end. But facts are facts and being accurate is important. Further we have to acknowledge that Sweden has taken a lot of measures to prevent the spread and that business, and the economy, has taken a hit.

Oh and btw, just to brag a bit, Denmark is slowly opening up now and we still have a strong economy, as well as lower unemployment compared to our Swedish brethren. So guess we are doing something right.

BTW, and I'm sorry to do this, but yes Wejse does explicitly disagre with you. In direct response to our government deciding our suppression methods, which you would refer to as "lockdown". He's saying that it was the right call, and that evidence supports it:

Ekspert: »Sundhedsmyndighederne agerer rigtig fornuftigt«
"Nu forlod man den såkaldte inddæmningsstrategi, og lagt sammen med blandt andet lukningen af landets skoler, der blev iværksat for at minimere smitten, var det en »rigtig fornuftig« beslutning, mener Christian Wejse."
https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/ekspert-sundhedsmyndighederne-agerer-rigtig-fornuftigt

Corona-hysteri eller rettidig omhu? Derfor er karantæner og aflyste begivenheder nødvendige
"»Jeg mener slet ikke, at der kan sættes spørgsmålstegn ved de anbefalinger, regeringen og myndighederne har givet. De er overordnet set meget fornuftige,« påpeger Christian Wejse, der også er afdelingslæge ved Skejby Hospital og Aarhus Universitetshospital."

Stærk historisk evidens bakker op
Derudover bakker forskernes figur op om den viden, man allerede har om effekten af epidemi-foranstaltninger.

Christian Wejse fremhæver et studie fra 2007, der ifølge ham fungerer som stærk historisk bevis for, at regeringens anbefalinger kan hjælpe med at sprede antallet af smittede ud over længere tid.
https://videnskab.dk/krop-sundhed/c...derfor-er-karantaener-og-aflyste-begivenheder

 

[Wet Blanket]

Honestly Canada has lost 3000 people to Corona out of 31m. It's a complete blood bath up here, we have lost 0.0000967% of our population to Covid.

Absolute bedlam. I am glad I lost 100k/year job, have been put on defacto house arrest for two months, and will be looking for work in the recession.

Yeah, we should have probably just tried to get as many infected as possible and get those numbers way up.

 

[Tycho- Taylor's Version]

See this is when I know you're not serious, when you use "charts" as a derogative term. No one in your position would attack the chart without addressing the data. It's a cheap trick.

I know that Giesecke claims that he believes that by the end of it, it will resemble the flu. I saw the interview before you posted it and he didn't answer the question to a satisfying degree, and we can simply contrast it with Ferguson, or any number of epidemiologists that see if it differently, if the appeal to authority is all we need. You didn't say what Giesecke did though.

You said this 10 days ago, claiming that if 30% of the population in Stockholm were infected by may 1, then the COVID-19 IFR would be lower than that of a normal season flu:



I responded with that is not true, based on the numbers. I calculated that Sweden would have about 2.665 deaths if the trend continued untill May 1. Today you have 2.586 deaths and we're one day away from May 1, it'll be almost exactly what the trend showed. Then based on the relative percentage of deaths in Stockholm, the IFR would be several magnitutes above the seasonal flu. Add in a much greater infection rate. I also said that Sweden would manage, and it wont be the end of the world. You will be fine, but that facts are facts. As well as we have to acknowledge the serious mitigation measures that Sweden has taken, and that the economy is still taking a hit.



BTW, and I'm sorry to do this, but yes Wejse does explicitly disagrees with you. In direct response to our government deciding our suppression methods, which you would refer to as "lockdown". He's saying that it was the right call, and that evidence supports it:

Ekspert: »Sundhedsmyndighederne agerer rigtig fornuftigt«
"Nu forlod man den såkaldte inddæmningsstrategi, og lagt sammen med blandt andet lukningen af landets skoler, der blev iværksat for at minimere smitten, var det en »rigtig fornuftig« beslutning, mener Christian Wejse."
https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/ekspert-sundhedsmyndighederne-agerer-rigtig-fornuftigt

Corona-hysteri eller rettidig omhu? Derfor er karantæner og aflyste begivenheder nødvendige
"»Jeg mener slet ikke, at der kan sættes spørgsmålstegn ved de anbefalinger, regeringen og myndighederne har givet. De er overordnet set meget fornuftige,« påpeger Christian Wejse, der også er afdelingslæge ved Skejby Hospital og Aarhus Universitetshospital."

Stærk historisk evidens bakker op
Derudover bakker forskernes figur op om den viden, man allerede har om effekten af epidemi-foranstaltninger.

Christian Wejse fremhæver et studie fra 2007, der ifølge ham fungerer som stærk historisk bevis for, at regeringens anbefalinger kan hjælpe med at sprede antallet af smittede ud over længere tid.
https://videnskab.dk/krop-sundhed/c...derfor-er-karantaener-og-aflyste-begivenheder

Wad has unfortunately adopted the rhetoric of someone who needs to make business decisions based on limited information, and desperately needs his people to believe him.

We're seeing the same thing here, though my association is largely with people dedicated to analyzing possibilities.

 

[Queen B]

To the just flu dummies I've found an article that will help you through this process,; although your parents should have done a better job raising you instead, this is the best substitute I can offer to you:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-things-you-need-know-about-virus/607495/
You are currently in the stage of denial about the virus. Now that you recognize this, join the rest of us men in facing the situation with rationality and clear sight. Stop saying you want people to let their grandparents die so you can get your hair did and bowl with the other fatties. It's despicable. Also, you risk death yourself by spreading denalist idiocy.

A lot more Americans die of old age every year. So is just Flu Bro

 

[milenss]

Honestly Canada has lost 3000 people to Corona out of 31m. It's a complete blood bath up here, we have lost 0.0000967% of our population to Covid.

Absolute bedlam. I am glad I lost 100k/year job, have been put on defacto house arrest for two months, and will be looking for work in the recession.

That's why it's good to have a proper PM, and not a gay/LGBT one. But hey... who am I to talk about this..

 

[Wadtucket]

See this is when I know you're not serious, when you use "charts" as a derogative term. No one in your position would attack the chart without addressing the data. It's a cheap trick.

I know that Giesecke claims that he believes that by the end of it, it will resemble the flu. I saw the interview before you posted it and he didn't answer the question to a satisfying degree, and we can simply contrast it with Ferguson, or any number of epidemiologists that see if it differently, if the appeal to authority is all we need. You didn't say what Giesecke did though.

You said this 10 days ago, claiming that if 30% of the population in Stockholm were infected by may 1, then the COVID-19 IFR would be lower than that of a normal season flu:



I responded with that is not true, based on the numbers. I calculated that Sweden would have about 2.665 deaths if the trend continued untill May 1. Today you have 2.586 deaths and we're one day away from May 1, it'll be almost exactly what the trend showed. Then based on the relative percentage of deaths in Stockholm, the IFR would be several magnitutes above the seasonal flu. Add in a much greater infection rate. I also said that Sweden would manage, and it wont be the end of the world. You will be fine, but that facts are facts. As well as we have to acknowledge the serious mitigation measures that Sweden has taken, and that the economy is still taking a hit.



BTW, and I'm sorry to do this, but yes Wejse does explicitly disagre with you. In direct response to our government deciding our suppression methods, which you would refer to as "lockdown". He's saying that it was the right call, and that evidence supports it:

Ekspert: »Sundhedsmyndighederne agerer rigtig fornuftigt«
"Nu forlod man den såkaldte inddæmningsstrategi, og lagt sammen med blandt andet lukningen af landets skoler, der blev iværksat for at minimere smitten, var det en »rigtig fornuftig« beslutning, mener Christian Wejse."
https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/ekspert-sundhedsmyndighederne-agerer-rigtig-fornuftigt

Corona-hysteri eller rettidig omhu? Derfor er karantæner og aflyste begivenheder nødvendige
"»Jeg mener slet ikke, at der kan sættes spørgsmålstegn ved de anbefalinger, regeringen og myndighederne har givet. De er overordnet set meget fornuftige,« påpeger Christian Wejse, der også er afdelingslæge ved Skejby Hospital og Aarhus Universitetshospital."

Stærk historisk evidens bakker op
Derudover bakker forskernes figur op om den viden, man allerede har om effekten af epidemi-foranstaltninger.

Christian Wejse fremhæver et studie fra 2007, der ifølge ham fungerer som stærk historisk bevis for, at regeringens anbefalinger kan hjælpe med at sprede antallet af smittede ud over længere tid.
https://videnskab.dk/krop-sundhed/c...derfor-er-karantaener-og-aflyste-begivenheder

You're not very bright and can apparently not read your own language. Quote:

»Alle dem, der ikke er syge, eller ikke er så syge, at de skal på sygehuset, men bare rider det af som en forkølelse, de kan jo få lov til at være ude i samfundet. Dem behøver vi ikke at teste længere, for vi kan ikke spore smittekæderne længere,« siger Christian Wejse.

He's literally saying that people who are not sick enough to be in hospital should be allowed out in public.

Also that interview is more than 6 weeks old at this point. He's not saying anything that contradicts what I'm saying.

Sorry bro, try again.

 

[Sano]

You're not very bright and can apparently not read your own language. Quote:

»Alle dem, der ikke er syge, eller ikke er så syge, at de skal på sygehuset, men bare rider det af som en forkølelse, de kan jo få lov til at være ude i samfundet. Dem behøver vi ikke at teste længere, for vi kan ikke spore smittekæderne længere,« siger Christian Wejse.

He's literally saying that people who are not sick enough to be in hospital should be allowed out in public.

You can't be serious. You completely ignore my entire post pointing out exactly what you asked for, then you take a qoute out of context in an article where he literally in the next sentence says he agrees with the lockdown and think that is was the right choice, something you disagree with. You can't make this up. Would he then be the communist soyboy you're referring to?

In that qoute you carefully selected, he's talking about how we went from trace quarantine in the beginning, but after it spread enough that wouldn't help because we can't trace the source of the infection because there are too many clusters. That has absolutely nothing to do with anything we are talking about. I'm done with this.