Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver(Spoliers)

[flanellograf]

Connor is still a novice kicker. With that i mean that it takes just a few hours for a athletic body to learn the mechanics of the most fancy kicks.. Its the timing and set-ups that take time and experience..

But he uses them to cover up his very good boxing for a mma fighter.

That's a pretty insightful point. Although he is quickly getting better. He can actually hurt people with his spinning shit now (clocked Brandau, for instance), while in the Holloway fight it was mostly for show.

 

[WillW]

That is a soild point about all the damage/injuries Aldo has taken to this point. I kinda feel bad for the guy, its clear the UFC would want Conor to be champ, but I dont know if Dana really knows how much of a fight Aldo will put up, he isnt Porier or Siver. How good would Aldo have looked against those guys. Probably just as good.

Also what do you guys think about Dillashaw vs. Aldo or Mcgregor winner. He said he would want that fight. It would be cool to see the UFC put on some superfights like that.

His head doesn't really lean too far forward, and there is absolutely zero telegraphing of that straight left. No step, no windup, he just fires it out like a bullet. If anyone can time it, Aldo can, but I wouldn't say "fully believe." That cross is a killer move.

Best St. left in the game

 

[mysticdragonbjj]

I wouldn't say 'novice' kicker. His setup is rather poor, but the fact that he fires these out from nearly anywhere and is almost always balanced when he lands is pretty impressive.

First of all Fedor is already the GOAT. Conor is the BOAT.

I don't think the kicks will give Aldo a hard time. Likely stuff he's seen with copueira (sp?) all the time. I think Conor is close to advanced striking. Really a matter of putting together combinations IMO.

 

[Discipulus]

5 years from now, people will compare WEC Aldo to Pride Shogun

Athleticism counts for a lot, so does putting your opponents in the hospital every fight

Aldo is practically a cripple with all of his injuries. You can talk about the fine intricacies of his technique until you go blue in the face, but with each fight, the end results are getting less and less impressive and that's all that matters in the end.

Sorry, what? Shogun fell off in a big way immediately after his big run in Pride. Aldo, on the other hand, hasn't lost in about 10 years, and is one of the most dominant champions in the UFC. He's also a pound-for-pound great--number one, in my opinion.

Have you ever actually watched an Aldo fight?

Connor is still a novice kicker. With that i mean that it takes just a few hours for a athletic body to learn the mechanics of the most fancy kicks.. Its the timing and set-ups that take time and experience..

But he uses them to cover up his very good boxing for a mma fighter.

Not really. McGregor's been using a wide array of kicks for years and years. He beat the hell out of Dave Hill with his left head kick, and he's used Capoeira techniques extensively since his CWFC days.

 

[WillW]

did you not watch the fight last night. he was "putting combinations together" all over Siver's face

 

[Steve08]

Nothing particularly fancy, just basics. He measured distance with his lead hand, then stayed right there. If Siver moved in, he would move back the equivalent amount to maintain his distance. Then when there was an opening (if Siver tried to pivot too big, if Siver stepped in to kick, if Siver reacted to his jab, etc) he would time it and throw his left hand, but not let his feet step forward after. So he would just pop in range long enough to attack then pull just back out. That way he was generally only entering the range where Siver could hit him at the times when Siver wasn't ready to throw back.

What would be interesting is to see McGregor fight someone who will walk him down without going crazy and running into punches. Someone stylistically similar to Weidman. That won't likely be Aldo though.

Ok, yeah I see all that now, I just wanted to make sure we were on the same page.

Somewhat unrelated, but I was led to believe in Jack Dempsey's book that the REAR hand is ideal for measuring distance (because if you can't touch them with your rear hand, you surely cannot HIT them with your lead hand), at least in orthodox/orthodox engagements (which would make sense as that was far more common in Dempsey's time). What I want to ask you is does the lead hand take over this rule in opposite stance engagements?

 

[flanellograf]

Not really. McGregor's been using a wide array of kicks for years and years. He beat the hell out of Dave Hill with his left head kick, and he's used Capoeira techniques extensively since his CWFC days.

His spinning shit has clearly improved in application imo. He can actually hurt people with it now, instead of just showing it to confuse his opponents.

 

[aries]

You're underselling McGregor here. McGregor's head movement is well above average for a UFC fighter, he's just been the one initiating the action and others have been countering. When in that fight did Siver actually initiate the action for McGregor to slip anything?

I doubt McGregor beats Aldo, but it won't be because he came in with his chin in the air and got knocked out. Aldo couldn't put away people with significantly worse striking habits than McGregor has (Mendes and Florian come to mind. Chang was coming in with flurries way sloppier than McGregor has ever thrown, and that was only stopped because CSJ dislocated his shoulder) so why would McGregor, who blocks well, judges distance like a champ and has clearly underrated head and body movement be dropped so easily?

I agree about GOAT's head movement (although a lot of it is based on great distance control) and the other big factor is McG's chin. It's iron. I've never seen him phased by a head shot. However, I think Aldo's leg kicks are the biggest threat to him. Aldo has great boxing but I think it would be a big mistake to try and trade with Connor or counterpunch him because Connor will be able to punch with him and if that happens Aldo will lose. As for the ground game, Aldo isn't an amazing TD artist and Connor has some of the best pop up ability I've seen since Chuck. I don't think the ground will take much presidence when these guys meet.

I think it will be a hard fought 5 round striking match, if Aldo can take out Connors wheels with his kicking game he'll be the victor but if he doesn't I think Connor with overwhelm him with firepower especially in the later rounds.

 

[a guy]

His head doesn't really lean too far forward, and there is absolutely zero telegraphing of that straight left. No step, no windup, he just fires it out like a bullet. If anyone can time it, Aldo can, but I wouldn't say "fully believe." That cross is a killer move.

It's a great punch, but the vulnerability is still absolutely there. McGregor has never fought anyone who could slip it consistently. A lot of his ability to land it is him throwing it when his opponents are moving away and think they're safe, or when they're running into it. Aldo will be the first to have a way of defending it that isn't just back up, or move forward fast and hope it doesn't hit him.

That straight left is McGregor's most dangerous weapon, but it's also the best chance to hurt him. And in a lot of ways, it's his only really dangerous weapon. It's the only thing he's been consistent with. He'll land a decent right uppercut occasionally, maybe one of his spinning kicks will land, he'll throw a good side kick to the body once in awhile, but without the left straight he's a much less intimidating opponent. I'm confident Aldo can counter that left, and definitely the spinning strikes. I expect both guys to push each other a lot, and it should be a close fight.

 

[flanellograf]

His head doesn't really lean too far forward, and there is absolutely zero telegraphing of that straight left. No step, no windup, he just fires it out like a bullet. If anyone can time it, Aldo can, but I wouldn't say "fully believe." That cross is a killer move.

Not to mention it travels a lot farther than Aldo is used to. And he has a few "double attacks", like disguising that long right uppercut with a twitch of the left hand.

 

[aries]

My best guess is that Pederneiras will be telling him to take McGregor down, while Aldo himself will be looking to humiliate McGregor on the feet. Which means that Aldo will likely hit a takedown in the first round, then slowly fall into a pattern of exchanging with McGregor until getting into trouble on the feet, at which point Dede will have him shooting takedowns again later in the fight.

This. I think it will be Aldos downfall because I think pride will lead him into a boxing match which he will lose. Connor hits harder and can take a heavier shot. McGregor could be put out of his stride by a pressure fighter, but that's not Aldo. This match up favours Connor unless Aldo fights smart and uses his superior low kicks to upset Connors movement.

 

[flanellograf]

It's a great punch, but the vulnerability is still absolutely there. McGregor has never fought anyone who could slip it consistently. A lot of his ability to land it is him throwing it when his opponents are moving away and think they're safe, or when they're running into it. Aldo will be the first to have a way of defending it that isn't just back up, or move forward fast and hope it doesn't hit him.

That straight left is McGregor's most dangerous weapon, but it's also the best chance to hurt him. And in a lot of ways, it's his only really dangerous weapon. It's the only thing he's been consistent with. He'll land a decent right uppercut occasionally, maybe one of his spinning kicks will land, he'll throw a good side kick to the body once in awhile, but without the left straight he's a much less intimidating opponent. I'm confident Aldo can counter that left, and definitely the spinning strikes. I expect both guys to push each other a lot, and it should be a close fight.

His left high kick is money as well, even though it mostly wears on people, but still. He dropped Dave Hill with it, like twice. And let's not forget that he has a lot more range than Aldo is used to, and that Aldo's countering has been against worse strikers. He has even had some "trouble" against those strikers. McGregor hasn't faced a striker like Aldo before, but the converse is equally true.

 

[flanellograf]

This. I think it will be Aldos downfall because I think pride will lead him into a boxing match which he will lose. Connor hits harder and can take a heavier shot. McGregor could be put out of his stride by a pressure fighter, but that's not Aldo. This match up favours Connor unless Aldo fights smart and uses his superior low kicks to upset Connors movement.

The thing is that Conor is an excellent counter striker, and some would say even better at it than pressuring. I don't think someone who pressured him back would have a lot of success for that reason alone. However, if he keeps pressuring as well, instead of stepping back and countering, then obviously it becomes more of a game of chins.

 

[a guy]

Ok, yeah I see all that now, I just wanted to make sure we were on the same page.

Somewhat unrelated, but I was led to believe in Jack Dempsey's book that the REAR hand is ideal for measuring distance (because if you can't touch them with your rear hand, you surely cannot HIT them with your lead hand), at least in orthodox/orthodox engagements (which would make sense as that was far more common in Dempsey's time). What I want to ask you is does the lead hand take over this rule in opposite stance engagements?

I don't agree with a good amount of Dempsey's book, and definitely not that part. The reason you measure distance with the lead hand is because it's safe and doesn't require commitment. If you can touch something with your lead hand, you can hit it with your right and only need a slight step forward to hit with your lead. And while you're measuring that distance, you're not exposing yourself unnecessarily. If you try to find range with your rear side, you're putting yourself in a vulnerable position without much idea of how far away you are. And you're more likely to lean to fake a couple inches.

By the way, did you see the fight with Van Buren and some other guy? It was terrible, largely because Van Buren had zero ability to measure or control distance. He had some of the worst footwork I've ever seen, no idea of positioning and didn't know how to keep the other guy off him except by clinching. And every time he stuck his rear hand out, he got hit.

 

[a guy]

His left high kick is money as well, even though it mostly wears on people, but still. He dropped Dave Hill with it, like twice. And let's not forget that he has a lot more range than Aldo is used to, and that Aldo's countering has been against worse strikers. He has even had some "trouble" against those strikers. McGregor hasn't faced a striker like Aldo before, but the converse is equally true.

I wouldn't call it money. It's there, but not particularly dangerous.

The range is a good point, though I think Aldo is bigger than a lot of guys McGregor has fought too. I also agree that Aldo has been countering worse strikers, but the strikers he's been countering are still much better than the strikers McGregor has been landing that left hand on consistently.

Definitely agree with your last sentence. I think this is one of the hardest fights to pick in a long time. I just can't pick against Aldo, and I admit a lot of that has to do with my style being extremely similar to his and his success gives me a smug sense of validation.

 

[Cyclone Mike]

Dude whatever. Conor's gonna win. I'm OUT!

 

[Buddy Revell]

I think Aldo beats McGregor outright (finishes him).
Mcgregor has very good hands and can block some punches and also has quick feet.
From the waist up he is very stiff which is partly why he has no head movement and to make matters worse, he fights with his chin up and out, and a wide guard. The only advantages Mcgregor has are size, reach, youth.

There are just too many holes in McGregors stand-up & probably the rest of his game, to pick him over aldo imo.

 

[Discipulus]

This. I think it will be Aldos downfall because I think pride will lead him into a boxing match which he will lose. Connor hits harder and can take a heavier shot. McGregor could be put out of his stride by a pressure fighter, but that's not Aldo. This match up favours Connor unless Aldo fights smart and uses his superior low kicks to upset Connors movement.

I don't think so. Aldo is the superior boxer, though he doesn't hit as hard. He's got better footwork, a better jab, and he can punch with both hands, whereas McGregor is mostly left-side dependent. Aldo is also incredibly diverse, and loves to pressure. I don't doubt that McGregor will try to pressure him early, but it remains to be seen how he'll react when he gets caught by a few Aldo counters.

Essentially, Aldo used to be how McGregor is now: a dynamic powerhouse who loved to knock people out. Meanwhile, McGregor used to be a lesser version of what Aldo is now: an aggressive counter striker who excels at pressuring an opponent, drawing his lead, and then punishing him. Personally, I'll take a technically brilliant veteran over a young dynamo any day of the week.

What's more, Aldo has shown that he fights harder the harder he is pushed. He was all over Mendes after being dropped in the first round, and when Mendes put him on skates with that level-change uppercut, Aldo knocked Chad down with a left hook mere moments later. Aldo's pride is his strength, whereas I think McGregor's pride may very well be his greatest weakness. Aldo refuses to be beaten, while all we've seen from McGregor is that he refuses to believe that he can be beaten.

 

[a guy]

This. I think it will be Aldos downfall because I think pride will lead him into a boxing match which he will lose. Connor hits harder and can take a heavier shot. McGregor could be put out of his stride by a pressure fighter, but that's not Aldo. This match up favours Connor unless Aldo fights smart and uses his superior low kicks to upset Connors movement.

I don't think it's such a sure thing that McGregor wins a boxing match. Keep in mind he's more or less a one handed fighter in terms of threat, whereas Aldo is dangerous with both hands and has better pivots in my opinion. He's also not likely to just let McGregor shut down his lead hand, and he's definitely not gonna swing from too far away and run into counters. He'll actually challenge McGregor for control of distance.

 

[a guy]

I don't think so. Aldo is the superior boxer, though he doesn't hit as hard. He's got better footwork, a better jab, and he can punch with both hands, whereas McGregor is mostly left-side dependent. Aldo is also incredibly diverse, and loves to pressure. I don't doubt that McGregor will try to pressure him early, but it remains to be seen how he'll react when he gets caught by a few Aldo counters.

Essentially, Aldo used to be how McGregor is now: a dynamic powerhouse who loved to knock people out. Meanwhile, McGregor used to be a lesser version of what Aldo is now: an aggressive counter striker who excels at pressuring an opponent, drawing his lead, and then punishing him. Personally, I'll take a technically brilliant veteran over a young dynamo any day of the week.

What's more, Aldo has shown that he fights harder the harder he is pushed. He was all over Mendes after being dropped in the first round, and when Mendes put him on skates with that level-change uppercut, Aldo knocked Chad down with a left hook mere moments later. Aldo's pride is his strength, whereas I think McGregor's pride may very well be his greatest weakness. Aldo refuses to be beaten, while all we've seen from McGregor is that he refuses to believe that he can be beaten.

Great post, especially the last paragraph. I'm fully expecting both guys to push each other very hard, but that might not be in McGregor's favor.