Elections Clinton vs. Trump Polls thread, v2

Who wins Florida on election day?


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Soon I hope it comes out Melanomia and her anchor baby, that evil American Psycho protege Baron, are Muslims.

No doubt, once you've been bamboozled it is hard to escape, and some will still support Trump, but I'd like him under 5%. Losing to some 3rd party candidate.
 
That small-fingered Cheeto-dusted son of an Orangutan must be livid behind the scenes.

if he had real hair he'd probably be pulling it out. Maybe he'll rip Chris Christie's out to make him feel better.
 
A bit early to call the election. Also those polls look bad for Trump. He needs to recover fast.
He needs to be in striking distance and he always got a chance IMO. The closer it gets the election the more visibly Hillary has to be and the more people will remember how much they dislike her. Trump is visible 24/7 no one forgets how much they dislike him.
If he can cant make certain adjustments that wont matter because he will be to far behind.
 
Uhh...polling for elections is not synonymous with odds for a fight.
Yes it is. You can make odds on who is going to win the election and the underdog can win. It's very similar
 
Uhh...polling for elections is not synonymous with odds for a fight.
Yes it is. You can make odds on who is going to win the election and the underdog can win. It's very similar

If anyone feels like reading a good (and mercifully short) paper on this, check out: http://liberalarts.utexas.edu/gover...onandWlezienElectoralStudies2012published.pdf

tl/dr: Markets were supplanted by polls, especially as polls became better scientific instruments. But markets are making a comeback. It's unclear how it will turn out (I suspect markets will win because they can approximate more factors) and both systems have their merits.

Also markets can set initial prices using polling data and do just fine.
 
The bitch is sailing away. It's so bad we have shills trying to point to propaganda poll sites that literally try to fool stupid people by writing, "Unbiased longview" under every single graph and chart. Holy shit. I can't imagine how stupid you would have to be to share that.

"B..b....but did you see! It says 'unbiased'! Your polls are biased! My poll that has Trump winning is the only poll we can trust!"

ROFLOLOLOLOLOLLLLOLLLOLLLOLLLL.


Our current political reality:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

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Never seen someone so happy that Hillary Clinton will be president.
 
I expect Trump can bounce back if he avoids third rail type fuck ups. His supporters generally dont care when he says stupid shit, and support it. Apparently insulting gold star parents is where he has to stop.

Trump being able to help himself is a major question though. Its clear that the center pivot, more presidential Trump is never going to happen. If he can just be his normal abrasive self he can lilely not lose a total landslide and fuck up the down ballot republicans. If he keeps playing with the Khan family or finds another third rail to touch then hes done.
 
It's done Clinton gots it
 
I expect Trump can bounce back if he avoids third rail type fuck ups. His supporters generally dont care when he says stupid shit, and support it. Apparently insulting gold star parents is where he has to stop.

Trump being able to help himself is a major question though. Its clear that the center pivot, more presidential Trump is never going to happen. If he can just be his normal abrasive self he can lilely not lose a total landslide and fuck up the down ballot republicans. If he keeps playing with the Khan family or finds another third rail to touch then hes done.
Alienating his own party wasn't/isn't helping either. Having scuffles with Paul Ryan and John McCain when he should be focused on Hillary is not in his best interest, but he's so used to being "the boss" that he thinks he can always get his way, and when others don't mold for him, he gets angry and pissy. Thus he doesn't endorse Ryan until a week after he should have.
 
Never seen someone so happy that Hillary Clinton will be president.
Pretty sure for Mick it is more that Trump will not be president.

He is not exactly the biggest Hilldog fan.
 
Yes it is. You can make odds on who is going to win the election and the underdog can win. It's very similar

One is done scientifically. The other is a far more subjective measurement. They aren't that similar.
 
Clinton is dialing down ad buys in CO and VA

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...8/donald_trump_s_shrinking_electoral_map.html

Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the main super PAC supporting it are pulling some ads out of Virginia and Colorado. Not forever: The super PAC, Priorities USA, says it will be back on the air at the end of the month, and the Clinton campaign says that at this moment it is still running a handful of Virginia ads. But consider the states where the Clinton campaign, at least, will continue running state-specific ads without interruption: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Apparently it considers Virginia and Colorado safer than all of them at this point..
 
In MO, Hillary's "think of the children" ad with Trump saying a lot of inappropriate things, has been running for at least couple days. I didn't catch who was behind it.
 
Still to early to call it. Debates, wikileaks, world events, and Trump's wildness still need to play out.
 
Never seen someone so happy that Hillary Clinton will be president.

I think it's more joy seeing all these smug Trump tryhards forced to eat crow after acting like total dickheads when polling was close for like 3 days after the RNC.

No one really like Hillary. They just really don't like Trump and the fools trying to convince themselves and everyone else that Trump was ever a good candidate are even worse.

Their tears are delicious.
 
If I was a Republican, I'd be pissed. This was their year, Clinton is despised, but because all they could offer up was Trump she's going to win. I wonder if Republicans would have given Paul Ryan the nomination if he had ran, and if he was given the nomination, I imagine he'd be in the lead in the general.
 
If I was a Republican, I'd be pissed. This was their year, Clinton is despised, but because all they could offer up was Trump she's going to win. I wonder if Republicans would have given Paul Ryan the nomination if he had ran, and if he was given the nomination, I imagine he'd be in the lead in the general.
That's the right for you. Ryan was a hero four years ago. Now they hate him. They hate him and love trump. Who is not even a republican. But that's been the republican party the last ten years or so. Just increasingly paranoid and fueled by blind rage.
 
Just increasingly paranoid and fueled by blind rage.

Remember when Ryan started growing a beard and the tea tards said it looked too much like a "muslim beard" and he had to shave it off..
 
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html
Trump's level of support amongst blacks is so bad that David Duke, former Grand Wizard of the KKK, is polling higher than him:

But here’s the weird thing, as the New York Times’ Campbell Robertson pointed out on Twitter on Thursday. Duke, a former leader of the Klan, gets support from 14 percent of black voters — a figure that eclipses the support Trump gets nationally or in nearby Georgia in a new poll from that state.

In three national polls released this week, Trump averages 2.3 percent from black voters. In Georgia, he got 5 percent. (In polls conducted before the conventions in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Trump got a now-infamous zero percent of support from black voters.)
 
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