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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 14, 2016.

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  1. Social Distance Warrior Banned Banned

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    I have errol in a huge parlay, but hedging it with small bet on algeri...

    Algeri is always game, except against manny
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Errol dec please
     
  3. wack3d Silver Belt

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    hmm bokies slacking tonight no livebet anywhere :(
     
  4. wack3d Silver Belt

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    betfair have lb

    going on spence ko.. cant see algeri lasting the bodyshots

    edit: lol just as i post fight is done
     
  5. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeesh. Spence is a monster
     
  6. wack3d Silver Belt

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    hitting padraza dec @ evens.. i think he is up 4-0 or 3-1 atm and he has the crowd with him
     
  7. wack3d Silver Belt

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    117-110 116-111x2 all for pedraza
     
  8. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Didn't post these but had Pedraza -150 and Russell itd -120. Was gonna bet Spence itd but missed the boat. I've been saying this for awhile but he's gonna be the next big thing at 147, even better ceiling than Porter, Brook, and Thurman, imo. Hit Glowacki as well and felt like we should've hit Kamegai yesterday. Not so great with the ufc card but boxing and the ponies more than made up for it. Hopefully you guys made out well this weekend too.
     
  9. null Gold Belt

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    I haven't had time to watch the bouts yet but apparently I won two out of three bets this weekend with Glowacki ML and Russell by KO/TKO/DQ cashing. My sportsbook inexplicably cancelled the third bet for Spence by 12 round decision for some reason instead of grading it as a loss, at least for the moment.
     
  10. vkram Brown Belt

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    I think they cancelled it because it was a 10 round fight.
     
  11. null Gold Belt

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    I'm thankful for the line error in that case given that Algieri got knocked out.
     
  12. null Gold Belt

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    Looking forward to this weekend's HBO card: Does anyone know much about Genady Golovkin's opponent Dominic Wade other than that he is undefeated? How is his footwork, defense and chin for example? I'm looking at the over 6½ rounds prop at +170 currently and wondering if he will be able to last to at least the middle of the 7th round like two out of three of GGG's most recent opponents have. I'm thinking if the GGG wins in round 4-6 prop is released on 5Dimes comparable to what it is on Bet365, around +175, that it could be worth playing 1u on the over 6½ and hedging with .6u on the GGG round 4-6 prop and something small like.05u on the GGG in round 7 prop to help cover the gap at +750. That way one could guarantee 1u net profit on the fight going over 6½, a break even on GGG winning in round 4-6, a modest -1.22.5 unit loss on the unlikely early GGG 7th round stoppage and a loss of the whole stake of 1.65u only on an early GGG round 1-3 finish or super unlikely early Wade upset.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2016
  13. bruthead Blue Belt

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    The thing with GGG is he seems to, and has basically admitted that he does albeit in faltering English, play with his weaker opponents a bit to prolong fights and give fans more bang for their buck. Definitely did that in the Monroe fight for example. But you never know if he will keep that up, I bet he could get rid of Wade inside two rounds if he wanted. He was more cautious against Lemieux who is a puncher but won't need to be here.

    Personally I wouldn't like to bet on this because I think it depends too much on GGG's psychology on the night. Wade has nothing for him.
     
  14. bruthead Blue Belt

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    Chris Avalos +790 (Marathon Bet) versus Mark Magsayo this Saturday in the Philippines. Can't say I know anything about Magsayo but Avalos is a decent fighter and it's a big step up for the local man.

    Avalos has previously travelled to Macau (and won) and the UK (and lost) so fighting away from home shouldn't faze him too much. Magsayo has only gone past Round 6 once and this is a 12 round fight. Any +790 dog is a long shot but think there could be some value here.
     
  15. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I used to live in the philippines and would not want to bet on anything there. That place is corrupt as fuck
     
  16. null Gold Belt

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    Interesting, Avalos is +1000 on 5D right now.
     
  17. null Gold Belt

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    I think one could argue that the implication that GGG wants to draw the fights out a bit instead of going for the early knockout could work in the bettor's favor in this case. If he's trying to make the fights last a while to not only please fans but also to keep from looking too terrifying to top level opponents suitable for big money fights that means he's working to make this bet cash.
     
  18. null Gold Belt

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    Talked myself into this and just locked in my bets. Only way I can lose money if is GGG stops Wade in round 1-3, early in round 7 or Wade miraculously gets a stoppage himself before the middle of the 7th round. In the first and third scenarios I lose all $200 even; in the middle scenario I lose only $53.75. On the positive, If GGG stops Wade in round 4-6 I make just $4.75. If he stops Wade late in the 7th I make $246.25; in the eighth $158.75; in the 9th $167.50. If the fight ends in any later round or goes to decision either way I make $100.00.

    Gennady Golovkin/Dominic Wade Over 6½ (+200) $100.00 for $200.00
    Gennady Golovkin wins in round 4-6 (+173) $75.00 for $129.75
    Gennady Golovkin wins in round 7 (+875) $15.00 for $131.25
    Gennady Golovkin wins in round 8 (+1075) $5.00 for $53.75
    Gennady Golovkin wins in round 9 (+1250) $5.00 for $62.50
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2016
  19. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Chocolatito/Arroyo under 8.5 -140. 2 units.
     
  20. bruthead Blue Belt

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    Magsayo KO6 Avalos. Didn't see it but a real shoot-out. Magsayo hurt Avalos in R1, Avalos scored a knock-down in R3. Magsayo hurt Avalos again late in R5 and got the standing finish in R6. Shame Avalos couldn't take it into the later rounds because it sounds like Magsayo was using a lot of energy.
     
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