Elections Biden on Pace to Blowout Trump

[44nutman]

Trump is going to get crushed. The latest Fox poll has him losing Florida and barely holding Texas. Lol how da Fuck does an incumbent Republican President only lead by 1 in Texas? Sad!
If Donny has even a remote chance he needs new campaign leadership.
First thing is tell Donny it’s time to pivot. The problem is Donny has dementia and will forget to pivot. His message only resonates with his base.
Hell Donny even fucked up his town hall with Hannity. Hannity has a heating pad on his back this morning after having to carry Dementia Donny through that Town Hall.

 

[TheOneAboveAll3]

Fuck you...I know the values but Christians don't follow them said values...I don't even give a shit if Trump is Christian or Muslim or whatever but the fact he dwells in your head is funny enough....again....idiot.

Dude youre a fucking idiot. No one is follows Christian values to the T since no one is perfect. I give a fuck what youre dumb ass thinks about Christianity or your gay love for Trump. this will be my last reply to your dumb ass. Suck it.

 

[Jack V Savage]

But they can, and have fluctuated that much, which is why their reliability is highly suspect.

To get more specific, this race has about a seven-point different from Biden's peak to his trough, which I think is above average. Not impossible that that number can increase but it's pretty unlikely.

These particular stats are based entirely on opinions though. Little different than baseball stats driven by...actual stats. I'm sure many statisticians are driven nuts by their flawed methodology.

What I was talking about was how if a polling company knows what they're doing, they see quickly diminishing returns on increasing the sample size.

 

[GtehMVP]

To get more specific, this race has about a seven-point different from Biden's peak to his trough, which I think is above average. Not impossible that that number can increase but it's pretty unlikely.



What I was talking about was how if a polling company knows what they're doing, they see quickly diminishing returns on increasing the sample size.

How do you think these polls differ from the 2016 election? I haven't really looked into them.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Stupid intuition is the reason I didn't bet the farm on Biden back when he was an underdog in some sites. I should have dropped a thousand bucks on him at least.

The sites I use had a really small limit on the size of a bet I could put down, but I put multiples over a period of time. Still under a thousand, but I got him mostly as a small underdog. Got one on him as a pretty big underdog while the primary was still going.

 

[Jack V Savage]

How do you think these polls differ from the 2016 election? I haven't really looked into them.

2016 polls were generally much closer, more volatile, and also had a much lower combined total (meaning more undecided/lean third party voters). I prefer the 538 average, as it adjusts, but the RCP average is easier to find a history for and is good enough:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[GtehMVP]

2016 polls were generally much closer, more volatile, and also had a much lower combined total (meaning more undecided/lean third party voters). I prefer the 538 average, as it adjusts, but the RCP average is easier to find a history for and is good enough:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Thanks for the links, I'll check them out. I'm so fucking bored at work right now lol

This is going to be a crazy election, can't wait for the debates, and all the hoopla surrounding them.

I hope you're doing well in this madness!

 

[Son of Ireland 34]

Was 2016 so long ago that we forgot how unreliable polls are? Also, in the age of people getting fired for their beliefs, do you think anyone is telling the truth on a poll? Serious question.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Thanks for the links, I'll check them out. I'm so fucking bored at work right now lol

This is going to be a crazy election, can't wait for the debates, and all the hoopla surrounding them.

I hope you're doing well in this madness!

Just pictures. Once the 2016 general was decided, it moved between even or small Trump lead and pretty big Clinton lead. The 2020 race has moved between a moderate Biden lead and a big Biden lead, though if Biden wins the popular vote by "only" four points, Trump still has a decent chance to take the EC.

Going to be fun to think about how history will regard Trump if it's in the middle of the range or during a period where Biden is riding high. Took office during a period of relative peace and prosperity, and then following unprecedented corruption was impeached (after a large portion of his team had left in disgrace over a variety of scandals) and left office with the worst economy we've ever had, unprecedented deficits, and over 100,000 people dead due largely to a mismanaged crisis. Plus, people will have access to his childishly written tweets and rambling, incoherent speeches/interviews. Our grandkids are going to ask us what the hell we were thinking as a country (if we're lucky).

Oh, thanks! And ditto.

 

[KantoTerror]

Dude youre a fucking idiot. No one is follows Christian values to the T since no one is perfect. I give a fuck what youre dumb ass thinks about Christianity or your gay love for Trump. this will be my last reply to your dumb ass. Suck it.

Lol what a loser...You're the one calling Trump not a Christian because he lies 24/7...like that's a qualification for a Christian...one last time...idiot.

 

[sdpdude9]

I’ve seen many discounting polls because of 2016, but they don’t understand polling is never meant to be 100% accurate, it is merely an indicator. Polling is generally a good indicator even, and gets it right majority of the time, but is not perfect. People are taking 2016 as an indicator that polling is generally wrong, but that’s just not the case.

In 2016, national polls were correct, Clinton won the popular vote. What people miss is Trump won key states by the narrowest or margins, we’re talking just over 100k votes total in these key swing states. That’s well within the margin of error of polling.

What we’re seeing in polling with Biden and Trump is Biden pulling ahead in key states by large enough margins, they’re out that margin of error. So that’s a pretty indicator he would win those states if the election was tomorrow.

However, as some have pointed out, we are fairly far out from the election and a ton can change between now and then. While it looks promising for Biden right now, those numbers can change, we saw it with Clinton. The race was tilted her way pretty heavily and it narrowed as the election approached. These numbers are far from final and should be taken merely as an indicator for how it stands right now, not for how it will be in November.

Now for my personal opinion, I don’t think Trump is doing much to expand his base, he may even be shrinking it with his controversial decisions dealing with protestors and his poor coronavirus response. That doesn’t bode well for him, as he narrowly won the first time.

Also, while I’d agree Biden may not be the most exciting candidate to get voters to turn out, I think Trump is so disliked that it’s enough motivation to get more to turn out on the democrat side. I believe Biden will win handily. But it is silly to count Trump out period, especially at this point in time. Too much can happen between now and November.

 

[Cuauhtemoc]

Thanks for the links, I'll check them out. I'm so fucking bored at work right now lol

This is going to be a crazy election, can't wait for the debates, and all the hoopla surrounding them.

I hope you're doing well in this madness!

That's the only thing I can see changing the scenario. Let's be honest here, Trump can't debate in the academic sense of the word. He is not Ted Cruz. However, in the reality show manner to appeal to the average voter he can make a dent on anybody and Biden doesn't seem very articulate to put it mildly.

Just pictures. Once the 2016 general was decided, it moved between even or small Trump lead and pretty big Clinton lead. The 2020 race has moved between a moderate Biden lead and a big Biden lead, though if Biden wins the popular vote by "only" four points, Trump still has a decent chance to take the EC.

Also if you looked by state Trump always had a decent chance of taking the 2016 election. I didn't dig very much into it but it seems Biden is doing very well in Florida and the Rust Belt, which changes everything compared to Clinton.

 

[ArmenianAssasin]

Dropped some $$ on dt

he’s a +115 underdog are this point on betting sights so it’s closer than many people are making it seem

dems are trying to hide Biden as much as possible and showcase him only while he reads off teleprompters

trump is sharp as a whistle, he’s going to destroy dementia joe at the debates

Other factors :

1)will stand firm on lawlessness and take action to in these democratic cities that are out of control

2) Will play ultimate political game and outplay the Democrats

senate republicans will obviously veto the absurd and irresponsible stimulus package passed by house dems

Dt will come in and broker a deal to get Americans their second stimulus checks

Once they second $2000 check hits in September ... tide will turn

 

[nixkid]

No metrics...otherwise it wouldn't be intuition.

But here's my impression - I don't think the energy for Biden is that high. I don't think Trump is going to lose much off of his base, especially in the current political environment. So the thing that's going to matter is turnout. I think the covid aftermath is going to depress turnout and that this will harm the democrats more the republicans. There's more to it to me but that's kind of the surface level stuff.

I don't think Trump's base is as large as it might seem. I think its becoming pretty clear that a decently large percentage of 2016 Trump voters were more anti-Hillary than pro-Trump. Its similar to Bernie supporters who thought their base was larger than it actually was because of his 2016 primary showing. The state that best exemplifies this is Michigan. Bernie wins the 2016 Michigan primary by a razor thin ~1% margin. Trump wins Michigan in the 2016 general by less than 1 percentage point (~0.25%). What has happened in Michigan this year? Well, many thought Michigan would be a stronghold for Bernie in the primary but Biden ends up winning by a double digit margin. Most polls have Biden up 10+ over Trump in Michigan. It seems like Michigan is better described as being composed of a lot more Hillary haters than Trump (or Bernie) lovers.

 

[Rod1]

How do you think these polls differ from the 2016 election? I haven't really looked into them.

2016 elections polls were wrong by 1%, the thing is polls measure voting, Trump lost the popular vote after all, it was decided by a razor thin margin of voters and well within the confidence interval.

The thing is that Trump had enough votes where it mattered which flipped key states.

 

[Jack V Savage]

That's the only thing I can see changing the scenario. Let's be honest here, Trump can't debate in the academic sense of the word. He is not Ted Cruz. However, in the reality show manner to appeal to the average voter he can make a dent on anybody and Biden doesn't seem very articulate to put it mildly.

I just posted this in another thread:

The super unsenile Trump in response to "what are your top priority items for a second term?":

Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning.

I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”

You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. All he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.

At that point, the discussion turned to Bolton.

Four months away from the election, and Trump can't even get a coherent answer to what his top priority items are! It's hard to even comprehend how unprepared he is. And he's way, way, way less articulate than Biden. They barely speak the same language.

 

[sdpdude9]

I just posted this in another thread:

The super unsenile Trump in response to "what are your top priority items for a second term?":



At that point, the discussion turned to Bolton.

Four months away from the election, and Trump can't even get a coherent answer to what his top priority items are! It's hard to even comprehend how unprepared he is. And he's way, way, way less articulate than Biden. They barely speak the same language.

How one can label Biden senile and dementia ridden but not see it in Trump is beyond me. Biden may lose his train of thought or stumble on some words, but Trump goes on incoherent rants all the time. Looking at the transcripts of his speeches make it even more obvious how little substance/point there is in what he says. “Word salad” is an apt description of it.

 

[Cuauhtemoc]

I just posted this in another thread:

The super unsenile Trump in response to "what are your top priority items for a second term?":



At that point, the discussion turned to Bolton.

Four months away from the election, and Trump can't even get a coherent answer to what his top priority items are! It's hard to even comprehend how unprepared he is. And he's way, way, way less articulate than Biden. They barely speak the same language.

And I think Secretary Clinton and myself would agree very much, when you look at what ISIS is doing with the internet, they're beating us at our own game. ISIS. So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare. It is a, it is a huge problem. I have a son.

He's 10 years old. He has computers. He is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable. The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it's hardly do-able. But I will say, we are not doing the job we should be doing, but that's true throughout our whole governmental society. We have so many things that we have to do better, Lester and certainly cyber is one of them.

I also laugh Everytime he said he takes Hydroxy.
But my point is that while he may not convince anybody with a college degree his antics may be enough to turn just enough blue collar guys in the Rust Belt to give him an EC victory.
Together with the right wing media branding Biden as senile some people may buy into it. If he was debating Obama he would get blown out but it's Biden.
Although I see Biden worst is when reading from a transcript his debate performance with the other Democrats was okay.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I also laugh Everytime he said he takes Hydroxy.
But my point is that while he may not convince anybody with a college degree his antics may be enough to turn just enough blue collar guys in the Rust Belt to give him an EC victory.
Together with the right wing media branding Biden as senile some people may buy into it. If he was debating Obama he would get blown out but it's Biden.
Although I see Biden worst is when reading from a transcript his debate performance with the other Democrats was okay.

I think that Trump convincing his fans that Biden is super incoherent is going to really burn him in the debates because the bar is so low for Biden that he can't fail to clear it, while Trump won't be able to clear it himself. Another one from yesterday that was pretty funny:

Here’s a guy, doesn’t talk. Nobody hears him. Whenever he does talk he can’t put two sentences together. I don’t want to be nice or unnice. Okay? But I mean the man can’t speak. And he’s going to be your president because some people don’t love me, maybe. And, all I’m doing is doing my job.

 

[Senzo Tanaka]

Seems like the same rhetoric as last time by the media. Hillary is a lock. Don't even go out and vote.

Make no mistake, the media wants Trump to win. He gives them clicks and ratings. A Biden presidency hurts their bottom line.