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I deleted the Trump stuff because I don't want to get lost too much in that conversation and the side conversations that come with it.Yeah, no one is suggesting (I don't think) that polls from June are that predictive of an election in November.
But obviously, they give a sense of where we are right now, and compared to past months and future months, they give a sense of how the race is moving and how much.
The general rule of election polling is that you don't even look at polls until Memorial Day. And we are still a lot closer to Memorial Day than Election Day.
We can agree on the first sentence. I can agree with the 1st half of the 2nd sentence but not the 2nd half. I don't think they give us a real sense of how things are moving. I don't think people's opinions on their candidates are going to change very much, I think their willingness to actually vote is what's going to change.
Whether they're pro-Trump or anti-Trump or pro/anti- Joe is pretty much set. It's if they're motivated enough on that Tuesday to do something about it and which groups are the most motivated to act, not just answer poll questions.