Elections Biden on Pace to Blowout Trump

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Yeah, no one is suggesting (I don't think) that polls from June are that predictive of an election in November.

But obviously, they give a sense of where we are right now, and compared to past months and future months, they give a sense of how the race is moving and how much.

The general rule of election polling is that you don't even look at polls until Memorial Day. And we are still a lot closer to Memorial Day than Election Day.
I deleted the Trump stuff because I don't want to get lost too much in that conversation and the side conversations that come with it.

We can agree on the first sentence. I can agree with the 1st half of the 2nd sentence but not the 2nd half. I don't think they give us a real sense of how things are moving. I don't think people's opinions on their candidates are going to change very much, I think their willingness to actually vote is what's going to change.

Whether they're pro-Trump or anti-Trump or pro/anti- Joe is pretty much set. It's if they're motivated enough on that Tuesday to do something about it and which groups are the most motivated to act, not just answer poll questions.
 
If you're genuinely interested in knowing the state of the race, polls are the best info we have. They don't fluctuate *that* much. Anyone who uses intuition as a substitute for information is going to have a worse understanding of the state of any race.

But they can, and have fluctuated that much, which is why their reliability is highly suspect.

Aren't you a computer guy?

No.

Never took any courses in stats?

These particular stats are based entirely on opinions though. Little different than baseball stats driven by...actual stats. I'm sure many statisticians are driven nuts by their flawed methodology.
 
There's a massive recession. Trump is finished / thread.

Savour this sweet, sweet moment as their imminent defeat dawns on the Trumpist. The rustling will be epic.

Pepperidge farm will remember who the sherfront collaborators are.


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HerebleachBM is mines when we divvy up the spoils. I''ll rustle him like no ones been rustled before.
 
Meh, the Biden attack ads have not started. You have not even seen the tip of the creepy iceberg yet.
 
Here’s Tucker Carlson earlier talking about how the election is in jeapordy for Trump, just another radical leftist suffering from TDS I suppose....

 
If you're genuinely interested in knowing the state of the race, polls are the best info we have. They don't fluctuate *that* much. Anyone who uses intuition as a substitute for information is going to have a worse understanding of the state of any race.

Also we are at our heart, seekers of narrative; polls and more importantly the trend lines behind them provide us the framework that we can hang narrative upon.
 
Also i dont understand why Trumps supporters in this thread and others can't admit what is clear to see for everyone; Trump isnt doing that great at the moment.

Denying it just makes you look silly.

Almost as silly as the fact, that despite asking him politely multiple times, @Handsome Bruce will not confirm or deny that he is a canadian.
 
Polls by major organizations are always going to be way better than intuition. What is behind your thinking that people shouldn't rely on them?
Stupid intuition is the reason I didn't bet the farm on Biden back when he was an underdog in some sites. I should have dropped a thousand bucks on him at least.
 
I deleted the Trump stuff because I don't want to get lost too much in that conversation and the side conversations that come with it.

We can agree on the first sentence. I can agree with the 1st half of the 2nd sentence but not the 2nd half. I don't think they give us a real sense of how things are moving. I don't think people's opinions on their candidates are going to change very much, I think their willingness to actually vote is what's going to change.

Whether they're pro-Trump or anti-Trump or pro/anti- Joe is pretty much set. It's if they're motivated enough on that Tuesday to do something about it and which groups are the most motivated to act, not just answer poll questions.
Well, turnout is always plays a key role in elections, and this year, with the threat of Caronavirus, there is an unprecedented potential complication. I will grant you that.

Still, you are not recognizing the core of my argument: in the past, historically, polling at the time of election has correlated strongly with election results, so there is little reason to think that if people say they are going to vote on a poll they will not actually vote.

Also, you are aware that most polls are conducted using only registered voters, and many polls are conducted using only self-described "likely voters," correct?
 
Here’s Tucker Carlson earlier talking about how the election is in jeapordy for Trump, just another radical leftist suffering from TDS I suppose....


Tucker is such a can. Caronavirus lockdowns were "cynical and tactics of leftist politicians to isolate and divide Trump supporters." Meanwhile, he doesn't mention the 120k plus dead so far and the number of cases currently spiking in states that reopened early. He doesn't mention that local politicians were following the guidance of epidemiologists and public health experts-- so I guess science was conspiring to "attack Trump's base," too? Sounds about right.

Then he says, George Floyd protesters protested law enforcement "but not all law enforcement, only the local police-- the FBI was apparently fine." I'm sorry, when's the last time we've seen a video of an FBI agent kneeling on a guys neck until he was dead?

Then he makes the claim, out of hand, with no support or explanations, that Google and Apple were "funding the riots"... Umm??? You want to elaborate on that since it seems like you've made a Pulitzer winning discovery if there is one shred of proof you can offer? Of course not.

Seriously, who can watch this guy and not see the gaping holes in everything he says? He's the ultimate trash bag in the wind of American political discourse.
 
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That looks really bad... but it also looks like he is quoting someone.
Uncut clip would be appreciated.

ETA: Yeah. Out of context pull-quote. Don't use that lefty tactic.
Here's a fuller video - he was quoting someone he was opposing:

 
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What I'm learning is that most conservatives aren't decent people, they're racist christian terrorists either via funding or joining terrorist cells that are called militias because the members are white christians and not muslims.
 
George Floyd protesters protested law enforcement "but not all law enforcement, only the local police-- the FBI was apparently fine." I'm sorry, when's the last time we've seen a video of an FBI agent kneeling on a guys neck until he was dead??

Lol. Yeah, I think the FBI are guilty and capable of a lot worse than murdering violent junkies.
Perspective.
 
NOBODY is switching to Biden. People are moving away from the dems. The propaganda is getting to children like it’s supposed to, but that’s about it.

No one except prominent Republicans like Carly Fiorina and Matt Borges <45><45><45>
 
Are you stupid? When the fuck did I say all christians are good people? Show me where I said it idiot. The values of christianity though is to do good, how fuck do you not get this? Are you stuck on stupid?
Fuck you...I know the values but Christians don't follow them said values...I don't even give a shit if Trump is Christian or Muslim or whatever but the fact he dwells in your head is funny enough....again....idiot.
 
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