Betting Questions

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 4, 2016.

  1. Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    Looking for a EURO sportsbook suggestion that would have a prop like this: "Wins round 5 via submission"

    I've been using Betsafe and usually has "win by sub" or "win r3" but never the combined.
     
  2. Brockstar White Belt

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    Bet365 offers that but only for the main event. It usually puts up those lines a day before the fight.
     
  3. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Unibet usually does it.
     
  4. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Anyone has any advice on how to track bets on the phone? Is there any apps for keeping track of progress BR, ROI etc.
     
  5. HIMBOB Steel Belt

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    Am I being retarded or are they?

    A site is paying $3.50 for Djokovic, Novak-Cilic, Marin being over 2.5 sets.

    Arent all males tennis games first to 3 sets?
     
  6. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Grand slams are 3 sets for a win for males, most tourneys outside that are 2, which includes the current one Djoko is participating in.

    Djoko being the dog is probably a wrong line? He's -600 on 5dimes, it pretty much coincides with him finding back his groove at the end of this year after a very problematic 2018.
     
  7. 2bet Blue Belt

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    What's the reasoning for a platform like bet365 to suddenly limit me to the point where I can't even put 5€ on any fighter?

    I made 2500€ last year and it's not like I am actually taking money out of their pocket, so why would bet365 even care about that?

    I mean, I didn't make 25000€ or so, 2500€ should really be peanuts to them. I am confused
     
  8. Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Have you hit any bad lines recently?
     
  9. 2bet Blue Belt

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    Not at all.

    Might be just a mistake, I will contact customer service and if they keep that I will just take my money and leave them.

    Their page says "Max Payout 50.000€", limiting me when I have around 5000€ in total on my acount is just nonsense.
     
  10. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Do you bet on any other sports on that book? Some will say it makes you look like more of a casual if you toss peanuts at NBA and stuff.
     
  11. Ramon Antonio Black Belt

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    Pretty sure that this has already been answered somewhere on this forum (however, couldn't find it with a quick search), but what's the most reliable / good odds betting company that accepts Dutch customers?
     
  12. Max Power Got The Touch Platinum Member

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    My apologies for quoting an old post, but I am unsure as to how you came to the bolded part. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
     
  13. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Implied probability. -360 implies is 78.26% chance of winning. 7 divided by 9 is about 78%.

    https://www.oddsshark.com/tools/odds-calculator

    Theres an odds converter for ya. Happy betting.
     
  14. null Gold Belt Platinum Member

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    I learned how to calculate implied odds this way, two simple formulas for either a favorite or an underdog:

    To convert American odds on an underdog for example +420:

    The formula if you're interested is: 100/(x+100)

    100/520 is going to be the probability in this case. 19.23% or close to 1/5 as you can see from the fraction.

    To convert American odds on a favorite for example -420:

    Take the reverse, -420.

    The formula is going to be x/(x+100).

    In this case: 420/520.

    That would equal out to 80.77% (you could also take the +420 result and simply subtract it from 100% for the reverse, but that's extra work).
     
  15. mds1303 White Belt

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    New member here and I just wanted to ask what you guys typically use to decide the number of units you place on a bet?
    Are you using a math based approach with a formula and once it hits a certain level of confidence it dictates increasing the unit bet or are you more-so just going off your gut?

    For example on Pinnacle Sports right now they have Till @-245 which equates to 71% win probability. If after my own analysis I determine the exact same thing and that Till has a 71% chance of winning, I wouldn't place a bet, bc I don't feel there is an edge (+EV). However, if after my own analysis I determine that Till's win probability is more like 58%, I would undoubtedly place a bet on Masvidal (even though I think there is a bigger chance he will lose), but simply due to the edge (+EV).

    What I struggle with myself and therefore am hoping others could share their opinions on is what cutoffs do you have in place to increase bet size (obvs its not an exact science and is more personal preference but like to hear opinions)

    Thanks!
     
  16. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Can't say I personally use a maths based approach although have considered it. Wouldn't say I go solely off gut feeling as its always a educated amount based on how much EV and confidence I have in a fighter winning. Even if a fighter is +1000 when I feel they should be +300 I'm not going to max bet them as thats still a 75% chance they lose but would likely do a couple of units. Most important thing imo is no matter how confident you are in a fighter don't go too heavy as its MMA and crazy weird shit happens all the time and its really easy to get a fight completely wrong.
     
  17. onC Blue Belt

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    Google Kelly criterion. The formula isnt too complicated, but you can just use a calculator to which you enter the BR, odds and %.

    Kelly aims for the maximal growth of bankroll, but you should use a divider (usually 4-20) if you're gambling with money significant to you, because the risk of ruin is too high with straight Kelly. Personally I normally use a fairly conservative Kelly/16 because I make my living by betting (amongst a few other things) and dont want to risk hitting a big downswing.

    Edit: So if Kelly suggested stake is 16%, Ill bet 1%. If you use a smaller divider, it's a good idea to also have a limit for max bet, for example 3%. There are bunch of whacky lines in MMA, and Kelly suggests very large bets when the EV is insane.
     
  18. Benedict Guest

    In fact, recently sports betting has ceased to interest me. Well, for the most part. Now I am much more interested in online casinos. A month ago, I found a pretty cool online casino and now I play it. This is real gambling syndicate casino. It seems to me that if you are a gambling lover, you can also try playing this casino
     
  19. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Pure curiosity, anyone have funds in an online book that went under or disappeared and took your money with them?
     
  20. mds1303 White Belt

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    Thanks for the replies. I am familiar with the Kelly Criterion, however for now I prefer straight betting for the safety (worth it for the decreased gains) simply bc I am still learning MMA betting. Also, when you say whacky lines for MMA, are you suggesting that finding an edge/+EV is relatively easy? Wouldn't big money/sharps correct these lines relatively quickly?
     

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