This is an opportunity for Ank to make a statement and go after the T/KO later in the fight. He'll have the confidence of knowing he's unlikely to get Alex down, but constantly threatening grappling freezes Poatan up.
The first fight was a bit of a stinker with a lot of cage wall-stall minutes, but it certainly was effective. Alex had some decent leg kicks but Ank was the one who landed the meaningful punches and he cracked him clean several times. IMO this time around Ank is going to take more risks when he has a good moment and put it on Alex.
Dude is pushing 40, has a lot working against him in this rematch and Ank is world class, riding high on confidence. I'm going 60/40 Ank gets another W and obviously Poatan having a 40% chance of landing a KO is still a real threat.