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Chael had been submitted 7x already, including literally the year prior effortlessly by Maia. His TDs were a hell of a lot better than Silva's TDD was. He had also never been KO'd in 38 fights and had reasonable technical boxing that complimented his threat of the TD, even if Silva was the superior striker with more power.Shades of Anderson Silva telling Big Nog he would submit Sonnan.
"...The first thing that stands out to me is when Anderson is leaving home, he tells Big Nog, "I'm going to submit him." Nog replies, "No, you will knock him out." Anderson puts his hand on Nog's shoulder and looks him in the eye, and very stern says, "No. I will submit him." Nog gets a huge smile.
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Anderson Silva: Like Water - Thoughts and details (spoilers)
Well, last night was the night I had been waiting for for almost a year - I finally watched 'Like Water.' I've been waiting for this documentary for SO LONG in hopes that they would show his visit to the doctor for his ribs (and unfortunately, they don't). However, the film doesn't disappoint...forum.mmajunkie.com
Silva was entirely right to realize this fight far more likely needed to be won on the ground, not the feet. It's shitty coaching by Nog not to similarly come to that conclusion. As much as his Hail Mary sub was, and it was a Hail Mary, so would've been standing KO as the likelihood he defended the TDs and forced a standup fight was low. Hell, he only managed to do so in the rematch by cheating to defend the TDs.