Elections 2024 Election polls in retrospect

[The XL]

Establishment projections can be unbiased when the two sides in question are both bought and paid for by the same people, but they hold no weight when it comes to unbiasedly assessing the situation when one of the candidates in question isn't bought and paid for.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Anyway I think most (not all) pollsters try to do the best and most objective job they can. There was a lot of talk this election of people not even being honest with their spouses about who they were actually voting for. If they're not being honest with their spouses, they might not be with the pollsters.

Trump is a controversial figure, and the amount of people admitting they're voting for him is less than those that actually vote for him. It would be hard for the pollsters to accurately account for this.

Pollsters who created modeling using agg polls did a fantastic job. People just don't understand that probability doesn't equal predictions. But yes, it's really hard to account for Trump over performance when adding that variable since elections happen so infrequently

 

[HOLA]

Pollsters who created modeling using agg polls did a fantastic job. People just don't understand that probability doesn't equal predictions. But yes, it's really hard to account for Trump over performance when adding that variable since elections happen so infrequently

Yes, that too. Most people don't pay attention to the margin or error, or know what a confidence interval is, etc.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Polls basically nailed it. Super close race with a slight Trump edge.

The weirdest part is that there were no surprise states. It all just went chalky

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Polls basically nailed it. Super close race with a slight Trump edge.

The weirdest part is that there were no surprise states. It all just went chalky

Yeah, they did. Aside from when they tried to determine gaps and certainty. I.e NYT thinking Florida and Texas were going to be slight victories, but that's more of a wording and trying to fill content problem