Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: The Announcements

[Lead]

I'm calling it now - she will win

The primary or the election?

 

[Last Samurai]

The primary or the election?

whoever wins the primary wins the election

 

[Lead]

whoever wins the primary wins the election

One thing I battle with on this primary is the line of how the electorate is voting for a direct change with each presidential candidate and they make the stark contrast of Bush to Obama in wit, then the contrast in Obama to Trump in demeanor which makes me think the next thing would be another "uniter" type message which makes me think of options like Biden, Booker or Beto. I could see Klobuchar being in that camp as well. I think it's very hard to expect a message like that to prevail however in a primary against the incumbent compared to 2024.

 

[KeepItRealist]

#MeSioux campaign officially underway

 

[KeepItRealist]

whoever wins the primary wins the election

After the way Dems "found" the votes they needed after the election was over in the midterms, that would not be surprising.

 

[Cake4Breakfast]

Klobuchar is a dark horse, she is the type of dem that Trump hating republicans could vote for. She is like your friend's cool mom.

 

[Lead]

Can A ‘Moderate’ Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?
Democratic moderates may be too different from each other to vote as a bloc.
Five Thirty Eight

If you follow politics through cable news, or via Twitter, you might get the impression that the Democratic Party is dominated by voters who are almost exclusively coastal, liberal, secular, well-educated and relatively young. And it’s true that some of these groups are becoming more prominent — more Democrats than ever identify as liberal, for example.

But there still might be room for a “moderate” candidate to do well in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, maybe even win. Democrats overall are more conservative, more religious and less well-educated than I think is commonly believed. In other words, there remains a moderate wing of the Democratic Party — it just might not be a cohesive one.

You can define “moderate” in a bunch of different ways, but here are a few data points illustrating that anywhere from a quarter to half of Democratic voters defy the party stereotypes:

• Gallup found that 47 percent of Democrats identify as either “moderate” (34 percent) or “conservative” (13 percent). 51 percent say they are liberal.
• In the 2016 Democratic primaries, at least a quarter of voters identified as “moderate” or “conservative” — as opposed to “liberal” or “very liberal” — in all 27 states where exit or entrance polls were conducted.
• About a quarter of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election were white people without college degrees, according to the Pew Research Center.
• Another Pew poll found that 33 percent of those who identify as Democrats or lean toward the party are white people without college degrees.
• From the same survey: Almost a third of Democrats are white Catholics (10 percent), white evangelicals (7 percent), or white mainline Protestants (12 percent). Another 20 percent are black or Latino Christians.
• About a third of Democrats told Pew that they think that you have to believe in God to “be moral and have good values.”
• In the same poll, a quarter of Democrats said they think barriers that make it harder for women to get ahead are “largely gone.”
• About a quarter of Democrats overall and close to 40 percent of moderate and conservative Democrats told Pew they agree with the idea that “blacks who can’t get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition.”The majority of Democrats of all stripes think that “racial discrimination is the main reason many blacks can’t get ahead.”
• According to an analysis by Data for Progress, 28 percent of white Democrats say individuals’ willpower, not discrimination, is the main reason for racial inequality.
• One in five Democrats think abortion should be illegal in most cases, per Pew.
• Half of Democrats in a Kaiser Family Foundation poll want the new Democratic House majority to focus on protecting and improving the Affordable Care Act, compared to 38 percent who want the party to push for a Medicare-for-all provision that would offer all Americans government-backed health insurance.

 

[Lead]

Klobuchar is a dark horse, she is the type of dem that Trump hating republicans could vote for. She is like your friend's cool mom.

Dat Minnesota nice effect doh

 

[Fluffernutter]

Having a Kennedy introduce Warren for her official announcement:

Help OR Hurt her chances?

 

[Lead]

Elizabeth Warren kicks off presidential bid with challenge to super wealthy — and other Democrats
CNN

Sen. Elizabeth Warren officially launched her 2020 presidential campaign Saturday at a rally in Lawrence, Massachusetts, using the backdrop of Everett Mills -- the site of a historic 1912 labor strike led by women and immigrants -- to issue a call to action against wealthy power brokers who "have been waging class warfare against hardworking people for decades."

Over 44 minutes in sub-freezing temperatures, Warren described a political elite "bought off" and "bullied" by corporate giants, and a middle class squeezed so tight it "can barely breathe."
"The man in the White House is not the cause of what is broken, he is just the latest and most extreme symptom of what's gone wrong in America," Warren said of President Donald Trump. "A product of a rigged system that props up the rich and powerful and kicks dirt on everyone else. So once he's gone, we can't pretend that none of this ever happened."

 

[Last Samurai]

One thing I battle with on this primary is the line of how the electorate is voting for a direct change with each presidential candidate and they make the stark contrast of Bush to Obama in wit, then the contrast in Obama to Trump in demeanor which makes me think the next thing would be another "uniter" type message which makes me think of options like Biden, Booker or Beto. I could see Klobuchar being in that camp as well. I think it's very hard to expect a message like that to prevail however in a primary against the incumbent compared to 2024.

I think the primary will be more closely contested than the general election

mostly due to the Mueller report, which can potentially be very damaging to not only Trump but also the Republican party as a whole.

 

[Sketch]

'This is the fight of our lives,' Elizabeth Warren says as she formally launches her 2020 presidential bid
CNBC

Perfect. I really, really hope she runs and becomes a front runner. This is going to be Jeb bush levels of bullying on live TV all over again.

 

[KeepItRealist]

Klobuchar is a dark horse, she is the type of dem that Trump hating republicans could vote for. She is like your friend's cool mom.

Yeah right. She's Hillary-lite. She has the same fake vibe about her. As soon as she starts to get national exposure the stories start coming out how she's really a terrible person who even her progressive staff can't defend.

 

[Lead]

I think the primary will be more closely contested than the general election

mostly due to the Mueller report, which can potentially be very damaging to not only Trump but also the Republican party as a whole.

Yes, I'm talking relative to each position and not in absolute terms. I think at this point, Trump has less of an advantage than the average incumbents in the past. Some may argue that's reason to run farther to the left than the center for a party in 2020 cause a win is a win even if you may narrow the margin. It's two years out still but this primary is going to set the stage of what we have to work with.

 

[Cake4Breakfast]

Dat Minnesota nice effect doh

She would be a nightmare style match up for Trump in the general election, he wouldn't know what to do with her, as his brash style and personal attacks would make him look like a massive dick bully against her. He would have to run on the issues and on his record, and keeping the focus on Trump as president is the way to bleed conservative and independent voters. I think she would smoke Trump in the three Midwestern states that decided the election for Trump (by a total of just 78,000 votes combined). With everywhere else constant from 2016 (though I expect that she could win Iowa pretty handily) she would beat Trump going away.

She was a prosecutor, so that is something that she can highlight in terms of toughness, and she can hold her own with her intelligence and disarming sense of humor too (listen to her on the Skullduggery podcast from a few weeks ago), and her ability to keep her cool when Kavanaugh was fucking with her was impressive, he even subsequently apologized to her (that interaction helps with conservative "Kavanaugh didn't do nothin" voters).

Don't know if she is liberal enough to get through the primaries though, her being a woman helps her overcome her more moderate history (that will be more appealing in the general election), but she doesn't have the rah rah ability of Harris, or Harris' ability to galvanize minority voters. She doesn't come out of the blocks like Harris or Warren, she isn't an attention grabber like them, she will need to get out there and let people get to know her, but I think she can build up support over time. Given that the dems won on healthcare last year, and from an upswing in female candidates and voters, her origin story for her political career of advocating for a bill that would guarantee new mothers a 48-hour hospital stay, and that it came from her personal experiences giving birth to a daughter with a medical issue, that is political gold in 2020!

 

[Cake4Breakfast]

Yeah right. She's Hillary-lite. She has the same fake vibe about her. As soon as she starts to get national exposure the stories start coming out how she's really a terrible person who who her progressive staff can't defend.

 

[KeepItRealist]

Yes. Her fake vibe is very much like Hillary. I'm sure some would consider that a good thing tho if it can fool enough people.

 

[Lead]

She would be a nightmare style match up for Trump in the general election, he wouldn't know what to do with her, as his brash style and personal attacks would make him look like a massive dick bully against her. He would have to run on the issues and on his record, and keeping the focus on Trump as president is the way to bleed conservative and independent voters. I think she would smoke Trump in the three Midwestern states that decided the election for Trump (by a total of just 78,000 votes combined). With everywhere else constant from 2016 (though I expect that she could win Iowa pretty handily) she would beat Trump going away.

She was a prosecutor, so that is something that she can highlight in terms of toughness, and she can hold her own with her intelligence and disarming sense of humor too (listen to her on the Skullduggery podcast from a few weeks ago), and her ability to keep her cool when Kavanaugh was fucking with her was impressive, he even subsequently apologized to her (that interaction helps with conservative "Kavanaugh didn't do nothin" voters).

Don't know if she is liberal enough to get through the primaries though, her being a woman helps her overcome her more moderate history (that will be more appealing in the general election), but she doesn't have the rah rah ability of Harris, or Harris' ability to galvanize minority voters. She doesn't come out of the blocks like Harris or Warren, she isn't an attention grabber like them, she will need to get out there and let people get to know her, but I think she can build up support over time. Given that the dems won on healthcare last year, and from an upswing in female candidates and voters, her origin story for her political career of advocating for a bill that would guarantee new mothers a 48-hour hospital stay, and that it came from her personal experiences giving birth to a daughter with a medical issue, that is political gold in 2020!

Yea, she definitely has an argument in that field. I also think the best counter to Trump in a debate if someone people see as genuine and carefree/nice which is why I think a Biden Beto or (message wise) Booker works. She probably fits that mold as well from what I've seen of her. I think back to the Biden/Ryan debate and can see that working well against Trump. Trump says an insult or something and Biden just grins. Time will tell. I just know a direct counter loud mouth guy like Aventati would've been awful, not just for the party but the country.

 

[58miles]

After the way Dems "found" the votes they needed after the election was over in the midterms, that would not be surprising.

If you are talking about voter fraud please present anything even credible evidence of how the Democrats "found" the votes they needed after the election was over?

 

[Deleted member 457759]

How on earth is Warren running? Speaks volumes of the left!!