Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: The Announcements

[Shoemaker]

I'm so glad Bernie is going to run again. I love Larry Sanders.

 

[Trotsky]

Why couldn't a popular independent win in the GE. I really don't see why the traditional two party system would favor trump if the premise I keep hearing is that Bernie would sway a heavy amount of trump AND democratic voters.

Nah, the chances would be astronomically slim and the stakes are far, far too high. Trump has 35% of voters pretty much locked up. So, to win, he'd have to not only beat the person that beat him in the Democratic Primary, but beat them by a solid 7 points.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Nah, the chances would be astronomically slim and the stakes are far, far too high. Trump has 35% of voters pretty much locked up. So, to win, he'd have to not only beat the person that beat him in the Democratic Primary, but beat them by a solid 7 points.

Break that statement down to me - 65 percent of the GE vote Is up for grabs - why couldn't an Indy Bernard win them?

Sorry I'm just not following Your "win the primaries by a wide margin" point.

 

[Trotsky]

Break that statement down to me - 65 percent of the GE vote Is up for grabs - why couldn't an Indy Bernard win them?

Sorry I'm just not following Your "win the primaries by a wide margin" point.

If Trump gets 35% (which is the lowest possible - almost certainly unrealistic - share), the other 65% would be up for grabs between Sanders and whoever beat him in, or otherwise won, the Democratic Primary. So he'd have to beat them by a minimum of 36% to 29%. And a Democratic nominee getting only 29% is also very unrealistic given the demographics of the electorate, where the black community will overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat, as will the older white lifelong Democrats.

It would take a massive, massive scandal hitting the Democratic nominee and a very unsuccessful campaign by Trump to make this scenario viable.

 

[Trotsky]

Also, while Sanders does do well with independents, the overlap between Trump voters and Bernie voters is actually very small. Not insignificant, but small.

 

[Lead]

Why couldn't a popular independent win in the GE. I really don't see why the traditional two party system would favor trump if the premise I keep hearing is that Bernie would sway a heavy amount of trump AND democratic voters.

If you think third party campaigns work, I'm not going to be the one to convince you otherwise. Most people think their don't work and modern history hasn't shown a result to prove it incorrect. I'm embracing to the ideas of run off or even parliamentary systems where more parties could matter but our current system easily favors two parties. If you think the fix somehow is in with the dem primary, it's even more fixed in the general.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

If Trump gets 35% (which is the lowest possible - almost certainly unrealistic - share), the other 65% would be up for grabs between Sanders and whoever beat him in, or otherwise won, the Democratic Primary. So he'd have to beat them by a minimum of 36% to 29%. And a Democratic nominee getting only 29% is also very unrealistic given the demographics of the electorate, where the black community will overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat, as will the older white lifelong Democrats.

It would take a massive, massive scandal hitting the Democratic nominee and a very unsuccessful campaign by Trump to make this scenario viable.

Confused Canadian here, so in unsure what the "beat him" statement entails - how does an Indy get beat in a primary (that may be a stupid question)

Also, recent polling shows majority of the country leans independent, while I know that doesn't mean an independent voter is a vote for an Indy candidate, doesn't that number suggest an Indy candidate could be competitive.

I just see the usual hurdles impacting a non affiliated 3rd party (money, filing dates, debate invite) not hindering Sanders.

 

[Trotsky]

Confused Canadian here, so in unsure what the "beat him" statement entails - how does an Indy get beat in a primary (that may be a stupid question)

Sorry, an independent can run in a primary, just like Sanders did in 2016. He registered as a Democrat, ran, lost, and reverted back to Independent.

Also, recent polling shows majority of the country leans independent, while I know that doesn't mean an independent voter is a vote for an Indy candidate, doesn't that number suggest an Indy candidate could be competitive.

I just see the usual hurdles impacting a non affiliated 3rd party (money, filing dates, debate invite) not hindering Sanders.

It's possible, but partisanship is stronger now than in decades past. Also, Sanders isn't a moderate independent like Joe Lieberman who would exist between the two "poles" of the party (I put that in quotation marks because, while the GOP is ludicrously far right, the Democratic Party is quite centrist by modern standards). Sanders is markedly to the left of the Democrats, so it's very unlikely he could pick off sufficient Republican-leaning independents.

 

[Nameless Ghoul]

Sanders/Cortez 2020

 

[IGotAHugePeckah]

List of bums

 

[Trotsky]

If you think third party campaigns work, I'm not going to be the one to convince you otherwise. Most people think their don't work and modern history hasn't shown a result to prove it incorrect. I'm embracing to the ideas of run off or even parliamentary systems where more parties could matter but our current system easily favors two parties. If you think the fix somehow is in with the dem primary, it's even more fixed in the general.

I don't think the two-party duopoly will ever vote to end itself, but it's obvious that at least one of the houses of Congress needs to be parliamentary/proportionally representative. It's really absurd how unrepresentative and inefficient US Congress is.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

If you think third party campaigns work, I'm not going to be the one to convince you otherwise. Most people think their don't work and modern history hasn't shown a result to prove it incorrect. I'm embracing to the ideas of run off or even parliamentary systems where more parties could matter but our current system easily favors two parties. If you think the fix somehow is in with the dem primary, it's even more fixed in the general.

Im not by any means advocating that they work - I'm saying that from my understanding, Bernie would be the Indy who could work within the framework and win (possibly)

He is also not a democrat - so I can see the DNC pushing Harris huge and a repeat of the events of 2016

 

[Lead]

I don't think the two-party duopoly will ever vote to end itself, but it's obvious that at least one of the houses of Congress needs to be parliamentary/proportionally representative. It's really absurd how unrepresentative and inefficient US Congress is.

Yea, I don't think there will ever be a switch away from what we have and ultimately, if there isn't a change at the national/presidential level, there won't be much of a sweep of change at local/state/congressional levels either. I like that sum states have done all parties in one primary to serve as essentially a run off race but I believe those should only occur in states that have become so dominated by one party that a general election with that party vs the opposition party isn't a real choice.

Could you elaborate further on the "at least one of the houses of Congress needs to be parliamentary/proportionally representative." Are you talking about Senate not have the same amount per state or something else? I wanted to make a thread recently about how I think historically, the House has worked better when a single party held control for a significant amount of time and part of our issue now its constantly flipping. The other piece is we no longer have presidential landslides either so there's never a time of consensus and direction anymore.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Sorry, an independent can run in a primary, just like Sanders did in 2016. He registered as a Democrat, ran, lost, and reverted back to Independent.

That I understand, but if he doesn't run under the D banner this year, how does that work in a primary - he would still end up on a state GE, right? I'm not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand

It's possible, but partisanship is stronger now than in decades past. Also, Sanders isn't a moderate independent like Joe Lieberman who would exist between the two "poles" of the party (I put that in quotation marks because, while the GOP is ludicrously far right, the Democratic Party is quite centrist by modern standards). Sanders is markedly to the left of the Democrats, so it's very unlikely he could pick off sufficient Republican-leaning independents.

Don't think any of us can make claims on this with enough evidence (polling) at this point. I just feel that: a, he's not a Democrat, so that establishment is going to go after him and you'll see a repeat of 2016 - even more so with Harris being the fav, and beto in the mix; and b, he has the best chance any Indy would ever have.

 

[Lead]

Im not by any means advocating that they work - I'm saying that from my understanding, Bernie would be the Indy who could work within the framework and win (possibly)

He is also not a democrat - so I can see the DNC pushing Harris huge and a repeat of the events of 2016

It's hard to say. I think the establishment would favor Biden or Harris over Bernie. Now that I think about it, he actually does benefit more in 2020 vs 2016 possibly with the vast field of candidates since it technically splits more of the establishment votes over multiple candidates. The other side of the coin is you could argue Bernie did well because he was in a two person race with an unpopular Clinton. Polls seem to indicate he is still popular (he's coming in second right now behind Biden) but name recognition is a big deal with early polling before debates and everything. It could easily thin out but I really have no idea how this all will shake out.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

It's hard to say. I think the establishment would favor Biden or Harris over Bernie. Now that I think about it, he actually does benefit more in 2020 vs 2016 possibly with the vast field of candidates since it technically splits more of the establishment votes over multiple candidates. The other side of the coin is you could argue Bernie did well because he was in a two person race with an unpopular Clinton. Polls seem to indicate he is still popular (he's coming in second right now behind Biden) but name recognition is a big deal with early polling before debates and everything. It could easily thin out but I really have no idea how this all will shake out.

I like Vegas / betting odd better than polling and he's currently 3rd behind Harris and biden

 

[Lead]

That I understand, but if he doesn't run under the D banner this year, how does that work in a primary - he would still end up on a state GE, right? I'm not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand

It's not an easy answer. He would skip to the general election but to make it to the debate stage with the other two candidates, I believe he would need at least 15% average in polling. Additionally, he would need to have a very very well put together campaign team to make sure he had a chance of making all 50 states ballots. Its possibly due to state laws that he could show up as an option in New York but not be listed in Ohio. When you are a winner in the two main parties, this all is all assured because of the existing infrastructure and laws.

 

[Lead]

I like Vegas / betting odd better than polling and he's currently 3rd behind Harris and biden

That makes more sense to me. I'd say at this point in time, I'd pick Biden or Harris to win and Bernie is that outsider that gains very strong support from his voters but not enough of a vast appeal to beat Biden or Harris.

 

[Lead]

Beto O’Rourke says 2020 decision could be months away
Politico

EL PASO, Texas — Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to “raise expectations” about a 2020 bid.

O’Rourke told POLITICO after a speaking engagement here that he has no timetable for making a decision, which he said could “potentially” be months away.

“There are people who are smarter on this stuff and study this stuff and are following this and say you’ve got to do it this way or get in by this point or get in in this way if you were to get in,” O’Rourke said of his timing. “I think the truth is that nobody knows right now the rules on any of this stuff. I think the rules are being written in the moment.”

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

It's not an easy answer. He would skip to the general election but to make it to the debate stage with the other two candidates, I believe he would need at least 15% average in polling. Additionally, he would need to have a very very well put together campaign team to make sure he had a chance of making all 50 states ballots. Its possibly due to state laws that he could show up as an option in New York but not be listed in Ohio. When you are a winner in the two main parties, this all is all assured because of the existing infrastructure and laws.

From what I've read, he could end up on all 50 but some state rules are super confusing on first reading. But funding and filing and petitioning shouldn't be an issue for him