Elections 2016 Super Saturday to March 14th Primary Thread

[Lead]

His gains in Kansas and Nebby were outweighed by size of loss in LA. He did alright, but the size of his losses in the south are doing him in.

Yep. That's the reason I picked Trump in the poll. Even though it was caucuses and you could expect some upsets from Cruz, LA had Trump up 17 points in the polls so I thought he'd still at least carry that and it had the highest delegate count in the grouping.

The other thing is Cruz is seriously behind on target delegates since even Super Tuesday occurred. I guess the race changes drastically with two people but if Rubio stays to the 15th, that's a lot of the race over before anyone drops out.

 

[SouthoftheAndes]

100% agree it is creating a mountain to climb for Bernie, but this wouldn't be the first mountain Sanders has climbed this election.

Michigan is huge. I really want to see if the black vote breaks the same in Michigan as it has down south. If it does, Bernie will be in real trouble, he will struggle in the rust belt, which he needs.

I don't think it will. I think they will still vote for her but not as high as a % and I liken it to a lower turnout and difference in black demographic in that state. I also have my own beliefs on why he performs better with Midwestern whites than southern whites but that is for another time. There is a difference in ideological outlook though which can explain it and some of it goes along ethnic and religious lines and cultural lines.

I also think Hillary will win NY but not by a landslide. Noticeably I think she will but NYC I recall had many Obama voters in 2008.

 

[Quipling]

Yep. That's the reason I picked Trump in the poll. Even though it was caucuses and you could expect some upsets from Cruz, LA had Trump up 17 points in the polls so I thought he'd still at least carry that and it had the highest delegate count in the grouping.

I think this is the first prediction I've gotten wrong. Still got it half-right, though.

 

[ncordless]

I was agreeing with you. I was simply implying though it wasn't so much a free fall his he's only really been at third place at highest in this race. I'm fairly certain I won't be voting in the GE unless it's some write in bullshit. I think Trump is going to win and if Cruz takes it, I don't agree with most of his policies. Moreso maybe than Clinton but neither would make me happy enough to back,

Fair enough. I feel for you guys. You brought it on yourselves, but the traditional core of the GOP has lost its party, at least for the time being.

 

[Lead]

I think this is the first prediction I've gotten wrong. Still got it half-right, though.

Yea, I can't remember who has still been 100% most of it is luck when you're doing a poll combining multiple states with their weird allocations. The first states were more exciting. I hardly know the makeup and details of these other states. Iowa, NH and SC were months of build up.

 

[Lead]

Fair enough. I feel for you guys. You brought it on yourselves, but the traditional core of the GOP has lost its party, at least for the time being.

I think a portion of the party brought it on themselves and their largely loosing credit or trying to save face now. I think if you look at the media even from 2008 to now, it's a large change. Talk radio has far more sensible options like Hewitt (although I think he's pretty much just a neo-con). Fox has had to try to shift a little bit but altogether they are just going to lose more and more power as their audience dies off. There also are far more independent conservative pundits. What I'm saying is there is much more dialogue and less consolidation of power with any media source. This will be the first step to reversing things.

I'd also say the state of the democratic party isn't something I'd bet on either for success. It's very hard to think of where it will be in 10 years because I don't know a name that will be around. They pretty much have a lot of chips on Castro and that's about it.

 

[ncordless]

Yep. That's the reason I picked Trump in the poll. Even though it was caucuses and you could expect some upsets from Cruz, LA had Trump up 17 points in the polls so I thought he'd still at least carry that and it had the highest delegate count in the grouping.

The other thing is Cruz is seriously behind on target delegates since even Super Tuesday occurred. I guess the race changes drastically with two people but if Rubio stays to the 15th, that's a lot of the race over before anyone drops out.

It's true that Cruz's best schedule is in the rearview mirror for him. Kasich kills it for him though.

 

[Quipling]

Yea, I can't remember who has still been 100% most of it is luck when you're doing a poll combining multiple states with their weird allocations. The first states were more exciting. I hardly know the makeup and details of these other states. Iowa, NH and SC were months of build up.

Nobody. This last poll wiped everyone out. There was nobody who guessed both Hillary and Cruz.

 

[Lead]

It's true that Cruz's best schedule is in the rearview mirror for him. Kasich kills it for him though.

To be honest, I think even Cruz is planing the brokered convention. He's begging for people to drop out but they aren't going to. I don't think any of the Trump candidates expect to win the delegate count and it's solely become make it brokered.

 

[ncordless]

I think a portion of the party brought it on themselves and their largely loosing credit or trying to save face now. I think if you look at the media even from 2008 to now, it's a large change. Talk radio has far more sensible options like Hewitt (although I think he's pretty much just a neo-con). Fox has had to try to shift a little bit but altogether they are just going to lose more and more power as their audience dies off. There also are far more independent conservative pundits. What I'm saying is there is much more dialogue and less consolidation of power with any media source. This will be the first step to reversing things.

I'd also say the state of the democratic party isn't something I'd bet on either for success. It's very hard to think of where it will be in 10 years because I don't know a name that will be around. They pretty much have a lot of chips on Castro and that's about it.

Dem scuttlebutt is that the real lesson to be learned is the power of celebrity. There's more than a couple hollywood types that'd poll well. Welcome to the age of the celebrity politician. Clinton/Clooney 2016. If that doesn't work, Kanye 2020.

 

[Lead]

Nobody. This last poll wiped everyone out. There was nobody who guessed both Hillary and Cruz.

I guess the rest of the LA ones are going some to Cruz and Trump? Kansas had such a huge spread.

 

[ncordless]

To be honest, I think even Cruz is planing the brokered convention. He's begging for people to drop out but they aren't going to. I don't think any of the Trump candidates expect to win the delegate count and it's solely become make it brokered.

If the GOP can escape a brokered convention without dividing, it might actually play well for them from the amount media attention.

 

[Lead]

Dem scuttlebutt is that the real lesson to be learned is the power of celebrity. There's more than a couple hollywood types that'd poll well. Welcome to the age of the celebrity politician. Clinton/Clooney 2016. If that doesn't work, Kanye 2020.

Possibly. We don't know how the celebrity translates in the GE. I'd like to believe 90% of the shit Trump is doing in this primary won't work in a GE because the average joe is paying attention at that point. Clooney would be hilarious though.

 

[ncordless]

I guess the rest of the LA ones are going some to Cruz and Trump? Kansas had such a huge spread.

I think Trump might be in trouble. You really shouldnt talk about the size of your cock while trying win conservative moralist support.

 

[Lead]

If the GOP can escape a brokered convention without dividing, it might actually play well for them from the amount media attention.

No matter what they do, it will divide. They either are going to have to combine delegates to take it away from Trump which will piss off and alienate that already seemingly pissed off and alienated portion of the base OR they let Trump win and have to spending another decade trying to rebuild the party when they likely though they had already accomplished that by this point with all the young and diverse politicians they had. I think they should do anything possible to split it off because it will pay off in the long term to not let Trump run the party. Yes, there will be short term blowback and they will lose the GE possibly for it but you have to look at the lesser of two evils. Usually thats something you do in GE's, not primaries.

 

[Lead]

I think Trump might be in trouble. You really shouldnt talk about the size of your cock while trying win conservative moralist support.

I think you underestimate the priority of acting like the toughest person on stage over actual values within those primaries. I almost think half of the GOP race is who can swing their dick the hardest (Yell necon America can do whatever we want) and that's Trumps whole thing. His central policy is saying Mexico will pay for a wall. These people like just believing in the fictional negotiator who goes into talks and says "no I want everything" and they somehow agree to every single demand. They actually think that can occur and our politicians just aren't trying enough. It never crossed their mind there is possibly leverage on both sides and that's usually why you have to compromise. That's why they get so pissed at our own system because anytime a bipartisan bill occurs, they see it as a complete defeat.

 

[Sycho Sid]

Hey look, I was right!

So next is michigan? Well unless something drastic happens at the debate, it is looking like a pretty big clinton win.

According to the delegate math at 538 (which does not use supers) Sanders is slightly worse off now than before.

As for the Republicans, I wonder if it is because people are figuring out that Rubio is not really the moderate vote. And if he's not moderate, and not evangelical enough.....

 

[Quipling]

No matter what they do, it will divide. They either are going to have to combine delegates to take it away from Trump which will piss off and alienate that already seemingly pissed off and alienated portion of the base OR they let Trump win and have to spending another decade trying to rebuild the party when they likely though they had already accomplished that by this point with all the young and diverse politicians they had. I think they should do anything possible to split it off because it will pay off in the long term to not let Trump run the party. Yes, there will be short term blowback and they will lose the GE possibly for it but you have to look at the lesser of two evils. Usually thats something you do in GE's, not primaries.

I was just commenting to a friend that the best possible option right now (for conservatives) is for the GOP to manage to retain some influence in the legislature while "splitting" the party. Lancing the boil now is necessary. It's going to get worse, and this is as good an opportunity as they'll get.

 

[Lead]

I was just commenting to a friend that the best possible option right now (for conservatives) is for the GOP to manage to retain some influence in the legislature while "splitting" the party. Lancing the boil now is necessary. It's going to get worse, and this is as good an opportunity as they'll get.

They have congress, possibly the Senate still after 2016 and 30 governor seats. They should see a lot of those gains get washed away with Trump being the face of the party. Sure, they lose the white house but the primary voters already made certain about that.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

If Trump loses Michigan he's finished. If Sanders loses Michigan he's finished.