Elections 2016 New Hampshire Primary Discussion

[ncordless]

If Rubio finishes behind Bush, this really can change a lot. An consolidated establishment lane should still be favored for one reason. Many of the later blue/purples states are Super Tuesday are all or nothing states. Trump, Cruz and whoever else are going to split delegates in many of the red states and then they are going to get nothing in states after. This scenario was far more likely with Trump dropping out and it becoming Rubio/Cruz. If Trump stays in with Cruz, it really begs the question of a contested convention the way it plays out.

Thing with tonight is I think the establishment's path gets more blurry. Only Christie might drop out which still doesn't solidify the support. It's possible Christie has permanently Rubio's chances for 2016 before leaving and we now have Kasich as the proposed frontrunner, who imo isn't going to perform well in the next debates or in the south compared to what Rubio could've did. Bush now actually has some air to his campaign if he maintains a lead over Rubio tonight because he can play the survival game between the two.

Big question will be if the money shifts back from Rubio to Kasich or Jeb after this. Also, will the endorsements dry up for Rubio who had just became the frontrunner with congressional/governor endorsements in fivethirtyeights rankings.

I'd have to say Cruz's stock goes up after tonight. He may have finished third and if Kasich really becomes the establishment lane guy, that makes him a far more favorite on Super Tuesday compared to maybe what Rubio could've done.

If Trump loses a brokered convention, does he bow out? Or run indy? If he does run indy, does Bloomberg run too?

 

[Lead]

It kinda is tempting for Rubio to stay now that Christie is out.

For all those making comments that Rubio is somehow an idiot cause of the 2 minutes between him and Christie, you haven't been paying attention let alone to the rest of that debate, but all the other debates together. Rubio has been playing the survival game with the establishment lane. He had won multiple exchanges when matched up with Bush and had already ignored attacks from Christie in the past debate as he saw going after him as only pulling him down. If you can't recall past debates, Christie had called Rubio out for not answering a question, called him out on it and then cut him off with "You missed you chance Marky." Rubio didn't engage then. If you look at the exchanges with Cruz, subtle replies to Trump policies, and exchanges with Jeb, Rubio has shown to be competitive. This entire thing with Christie has become one of those petty sound bytes for people to dismiss someone for little reason at all. If you're authenticity is challenged, you can sink quickly however.

 

[Lead]

His 'happy warrior' schtick is short-term. He's going to have to attack the other candidates because his numbers everywhere else are very low. And he's not the type that sounds good while attacking, and he's got his shit pushed in by the counter punches.

This will be his only primary that will be percieved as a victory.


He was poised to win Iowa, and placed third. That alone put in question all the other polls that were in his favor.

We'll never know how well he would have done, because of the screech and the hilarity afterwards.

Again, as mentioned above, this is wrong. He surged before the election started and slowly declined and wasn't leading in the polls for Iowa by the time the caucus came. The scream only solidified the steady decline that was already occuring and he wasn't the frontrunner by the time it happened.

 

[VivaRevolution]

'evening HendoRuaGOAT,

well, i've thought that Bush would be the nominee for a year or so now - i haven't seen anything that would make me change my mind.

i just refuse to believe that the GOP voters will nominate Mr. Trump, because his platform is just too insane. i mean, lol, the guys over at Stormfront have had to upgrade their servers due to the spike in server traffic because of Mr. Trump.

this is a guy that David Duke of all people have endorsed.

Ted Cruz, who won Iowa, is also a fellow who i cannot picture winning the nomination (though he'd be my preferred choice to advance, since his nomination would result in the destruction of the modern day GOP, and possibly hand the Democrats the Senate).

eventually all those votes for establishment guys are going to get winnowed down, and i think Mr. Bush is going to scoop up the support.

no one on this forum agrees with me, but that's still pretty much how i see things playing out. i could be wrong, and maybe Mr. Rubio will come back from his awful showing tonight, but my money is still on Mr. Bush for now.

- IGIT

Interesting point of view. I think I read your first post to mean you thought the money and advertising would win out. I see you are actually saying that the multitude of choices is making Trump appear stronger than he is. I don't disagree, it is a good point.

The reason I think Kasich is the real threat is that when he talks, I don't hear poll driven, political consultants talking. He has the ability to come off as somewhat genuine.

I am of the opinion today, that I got this all wrong when many of us viewed Sanders and Trump's surge, as being anti-establishment. I think it is about authenticity, which is why I view Trump and Kasich as the real contenders. When viewed through this scope, I don't think platforms matter much.

 

[Lead]

If Trump loses a brokered convention, does he bow out? Or run indy? If he does run indy, does Bloomberg run too?

I do really wonder what his game is. He can't possibly believe he is going to go to the convention clearly as the winner.

 

[ncordless]

It kinda is tempting for Rubio to stay now that Christie is out.

For all those making comments that Rubio is somehow an idiot cause of the 2 minutes between him and Christie, you haven't been paying attention let alone to the rest of that debate, but all the other debates together. Rubio has been playing the survival game with the establishment lane. He had won multiple exchanges when matched up with Bush and had already ignored attacks from Christie in the past debate as he saw going after him as only pulling him down. If you can't recall past debates, Christie had called Rubio out for not answering a question, called him out on it and then cut him off with "You missed you chance Marky." Rubio didn't engage then. If you look at the exchanges with Cruz, subtle replies to Trump policies, and exchanges with Jeb, Rubio has shown to be competitive. This entire thing with Christie has become one of those petty sound bytes for people to dismiss someone for little reason at all. If you're authenticity is challenged, you can sink quickly however.

He then made the same mistake the next day. Hes going to be watched like a hawk now. And in the end the polls of NH tell the tale. Until that debate and his repetition of it, he was supposed to compete for 2nd.

 

[Lead]

Interesting point of view. I think I read your first post to mean you thought the money and advertising would win out. I see you are actually saying that the multitude of choices is making Trump appear stronger than he is. I don't disagree, it is a good point.

The reason I think Kasich is the real threat is that when he talks, I don't hear poll driven, political consultants talking. He has the ability to come off as somewhat genuine.

I am of the opinion today, that I got this all wrong when many of us viewed Sanders and Trump's surge, as being anti-establishment. I think it is about authenticity, which is why I view Trump and Kasich as the real contenders. When viewed through this scope, I don't think platforms matter much.

Problem with that in the GOP primary is sounding genuine and straightforward about some of the tougher issues just means you're a weak conservative to actually have a plan than scream out idiotic campaign lines that really don't solve anything and generally sink you in the GE.

 

[Lead]

He then made the same mistake the next day. Hes going to be watched like a hawk now. And in the end the polls of NH tell the tale. Until that debate and his repetition of it, he was supposed to compete for 2nd.

I never said it didn't hurt him. It did. I was commenting on the substance of the claim rather than how it's been perceived thus far. It's silly to watch a politician for using talking points but somehow Christie has made the media/voters think that is a bad thing when absolutely everyone else is doing that as well. He just managed to make looking polished seem like it is a disqualifier.

 

[ncordless]

I do really wonder what his game is. He can't possibly believe he is going to go to the convention clearly as the winner.

I think he could go to convention with clear plurality. And I just don't see the guy who has already tweeted threats of leaving the party accepting losing under those circumstances.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

I remember listening to NPR, and hearing one of the hosts ask "Can anyone stop Howard Dean". It was asked in a rhetorical fashion because everyone "knew" it was impossible for the juggernaut campaign to lose momentum.

 

[Lead]

I think he could go to convention with clear plurality. And I just don't see the guy who has already tweeted threats of leaving the party would accept losing under those circumstances.

As the establishment lane consolidates and Cruz stays around, I don't see a path where he is the clear winner by the summer. His game has to be a brokered convention and then holding it over the RNC's head.

 

[Lead]

The funniest thing about Christie calling Rubio out on the lines is Christie largely did this for all of the past debates. Watch what he did in his second tier debate with Jindal. SAME EXACT thing as Rubio that you could put it side to side. Jindal ripped at Christie's record the entire time and Christie kept dodging the confrontation by attacking Hillary and Obama's record with prepared comments about them destroying the country. It's a legitimate strategy to do when someone lower in the polls attacks you. If you attack back, you are lowering your position and risking appearing as equals. If you instead, deflect it by attacking the other parties leaders, you try to present yourself as level with the current sitting president and Dem frontrunner. Every candidate does this and voters are silly enough to think this somehow is making Rubio a bad choice.

 

[GSP in 2006]

If Trump heads into the convention with a plurality of delegates, and the party nominates someone else, does he run indy?

4 way race between Sanders, Bloomberg, Trump, and Cruz . . . Who ya got?

Wow! I think Cruz would probably take that scenario on the power of the evangelical vote.

 

[ncordless]

As the establishment lane consolidates and Cruz stays around, I don't see a path where he is the clear winner by the summer. His game has to be a brokered convention and then holding it over the RNC's head.

Or he could be using the GOP and, while it would be helpful, doesn't see the nomination as necessary if he has more votes than the other candidates.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Why is it that all the pundits are saying Clinton will be favored in states with more blacks and hispanics? Why would they view her favorably? Or is it just that they have no idea who Sanders is?

 

[Lead]

Bloomberg wouldn't run Independent. He's stated he'd run Democrat and it's just talk because at this point he couldn't even get on most state ballots.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Why is it that all the pundits are saying Clinton will be favored in states with more blacks and hispanics? Why would they view her favorably? Or is it just that they have no idea who Sanders is?

Well because the media is a bunch of race baiters.

But really because, as you point out, many minority communities listen to no corporate news media.....It is "THE MAN".

 

[Lead]

Why is it that all the pundits are saying Clinton will be favored in states with more blacks and hispanics? Why would they view her favorably? Or is it just that they have no idea who Sanders is?

Polling has shown Hillary wins overwhelmingly head to head with Bernie. Bernie has been working hard to change this by getting quite a few noteable endorsements in the black community. I can't give a clear answer on why she is so much more favored. Obviously, name recognition could play a large role in it but what can be said is she does win those head to head match ups currently with that demographic and to think you can win the nomination that far behind with a key group like black voters isn't likely. Bernie needs a big swing there to even be in the conversation after Iowa and NH (2 of the top 3 whitest states for the primary race)

 

[ncordless]

Why is it that all the pundits are saying Clinton will be favored in states with more blacks and hispanics? Why would they view her favorably? Or is it just that they have no idea who Sanders is?

Bill Clinton. Dude plays very well in the black south.

 

[ncordless]

Bloomberg wouldn't run Independent. He's stated he'd run Democrat and it's just talk because at this point he couldn't even get on most state ballots.

There have been several reports that he's considering an indy run. Thinks he could win against Trump and Sanders.