Elections 2016 New Hampshire Primary Discussion

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Feb 8, 2016.

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Who wins the NH Primary? (Pick one for each party)

Poll closed Feb 9, 2016.
  1. Hillary Clinton (D)

    2.9%
  2. Bernie Sanders (D)

    91.2%
  3. Donald Trump (..R)

    76.5%
  4. Ted Cruz (R)

    5.9%
  5. Marco Rubio (R)

    11.8%
  6. John Kasich (R)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Jeb Bush (R)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Chris Christie (R)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Ben Carson (R)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Carly Fiorina (R)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. Vermin Supreme (I)

    2.9%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    GearSolidMetal and bad seed like this.
  2. It would be awesome to watch Hillary and Rubio pull the upsets. Just to watch the reaction of those who claim to know the future and are so blinded by hate would be amusing.

    All in all love all around lets make this a clean and good race.
     
  3. Gandhi

    Gandhi War Room Deep State Platinum Member

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    The real story is second place on the R side.

    Do we get Robo Rubio, an inept establishmentarian, or a real moderate.

    Go Kasich
     
  4. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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  5. Gandhi

    Gandhi War Room Deep State Platinum Member

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    Lol Rubio, Obama did Obamacare on purpose derrrrrr
     
  6. Gandhi

    Gandhi War Room Deep State Platinum Member

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    Lol trump....Jeb is such a desperate candidate he won't use his last name, lolololololol
     
  7. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    I posted this a bit ago in the debate thread, its more relevant here.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

    There hasn't been any reliable polls since the debate, it's too short of a timeframe before the primary to estimate who benefited, and who didn't, on Saturday.

    But after the good showing by Trump, in possibly his best debate, it's safe to say he's probably still going to win NH tomorrow.

    But as the average of polls of NH show in the link above, it's a three way tie within the margin for error for second place. As stated, the polls are from before the debate, but it'd be surprising for Rubio to sustain the same numbers after that craptacular performance in which he got exposed by Christie. But Cruz didn't have the best performance in the debate before Iowa, and still won by four points.

    But I'm leaning toward either Kasich or Cruz. Kasich but his heart and soul into NH by attending a hundred townhalls, so it's safe to say he's formed a bond with NH in the same way Cruz did with Iowa. But Cruz had a good debate performance as well, and the moment he spoke about his sister and nephew was very gripping for those that didn't know about it previously.

    But people like to vote for a candidate they're confident has the ability, if not the probability, to win. Kasich has poured the majority of his rescources into NH, and if he survives it, probably wouldn't last much longer anyway.

    Cruz hasn't been hurt by the supposedly 'dirty tactics' said that his campaign employees took part in, as much as the media would wish it did. His numbers have risen in nationwide polls since Iowa, gradually.

    Objectively, it's either Kasich or Cruz that will come in 2nd. Non-objectively, I'm leaning towards Cruz. He pulled a win out of Iowa by a comforable margin, wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds expectations here and comes in second.
     
  8. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I was tempted to make the poll says who gets second for GOP rather than first but people would get confused. That definitiely is going to be what I watch for. I think it's Rubio or Kasich. Can't see Jeb getting it and I think Christie is too low right now to pull out a second finish. There are a lot of rumors from competing campaigns about internal polls showing Rubio dropping hard but I really don't believe that. If he is, Kasich's in the best spot to take second.

    What would be even more hilarious is the establishment splitting the vote enough that Cruz gets second. They already made it next to impossible for one of them to win, splitting their base. If they got the same amount of support Romney did or their combine polling show, they would be the projected front runner right now.

    Either way, someone from that four has to drop out after tonight. Hopefully it's Jeb at minimum and I'd prefer Christie as well.
     
  9. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    As for the poll, its very clear Trump and Sanders will win.

    The only questions is by how much each will win, who will come in second for the Republicans, who will drop out before SC, and who will most of their support go to.

    The ones that dropped out after Iowa were very inconsequential. This time, we have a few potential drop outs with fairly significant poll numbers.
     
  10. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I hope some of these people are ass enough to stay around after tomorrow. I feel like Carson wants to stay the entire damn race at this point. Jeb also seems stubborn. I can see him getting fourth or fifth and still staying for SC and his campaign has actually been playing up SC as their state which is annoying. If you fall like a rock in Iowa and NH, no one wants you to stay and the voters you are pulling are just taking away from similar minded/positioned candidates.
     
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  11. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I want to know how bad the last debate hurt Rubio. If people remember, Cruz got blasted for the entire debate before Iowa and won. Rubio lost the first third and finished well with the second and final portion. I don't think it's fair to say it completely cripples him. Just wondering if this is like a Perry moment to voters but I won't think his base would shift that quickly away for a flop like that.
     
  12. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    Its about ego.

    Guaranteed Jeb regrets ever getting into the race, but now its about exiting with as much credibility for the family name as possible.

    Carson will probably drop out after SC, he's loyal to his supporters to take it as far as he can. His campaign is bleeding money with no new donations.
     
  13. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    I have a gut feeling its going to stick to him like glue. Much like Trump's 'Lack of energy' comment about Jeb.

    Everything Rubio will now say in his campaign will seem scripted and rehersed.
     
  14. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    He would be smart to maintain credibility by leaving if he has a bad performance tomorrow but I don't think he will. I understand people were dreading the idea of a Bush v. Clinton GE for the fact of the establishment type but I think it's a separate thing entirely from just being establishment. They feel entitled and I truly think regardless of what they say, they will feel cheated unless they are in the GE. I won't be surprised if Jeb does shitty stuff after he loses to the eventually winner, obviously if it's Trump but even if it's Rubio or Cruz.
     
  15. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Christie did nail something well on him especially with how he came back with that same response. It was a big flop and Rubio is very calculated with his answers so if it's damaging, it's very bad cause that's his entire presentation. The thing about it is, I think Christie did the most help for Kasich cause he needed more than that to rise. I actually think Christie should've went full on at Trump that debate if he wanted to stay, especially after hitting Rubio early with that. If he sparred with Trump and came out looking strong, it could've generated a surge.
     
  16. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    I'm curious if Jeb would stab Rubio in the back, somehow someway.

    Like saying 'You screwed me out of the nomination? I'm screwing you out of it as well.' That'd be very Shakespearean.
     
  17. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Another thing that makes NH more interesting than Iowa is the independents factored in. They are allowed to vote in either party primary they choose. This means if independents supporting Trump and Bernie, they are going to have to decide who they want to vote for. This could pull votes away from either guy and may make some of their lead dwindle from the projections we are seeing now.
     
  18. Diamond Jim

    Diamond Jim Silver Belt

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    Nate Silver has Bernie's winning percentage at over 99%.
     
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  19. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I think he somewhat has with the money he's thrown at him. Pretty sure he's already done a lot of damage to his name. I don't think Romney likes Jeb after what happened this cycle. I don't know if Romney even wanted in but he didn't like the idea that he was handing it over to Bush and even commented when he announced he wasn't running that the party needed a new generation of GOP politicans to take the party. I really think Romney secretly endorses Rubio and wants to watch Jeb crash and burn. Rubio campaigned for Romney in 2012 and Romney said he was amazing with crowds and it made him a tempting shortlist option for VP. I truly wonder if the original choice Romney had for VP wasn't Ryan.
     
  20. GearSolidMetal

    GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom. Platinum Member

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    Too risky. Trump is the Alpha of the group, and if Christie made a substantive attack, then all Trump would have to do is make a joke and he'd come out on top.

    Bush tried it with the imminent domain subject, and while he had the substantive argument, Trump just 'shushed' him and won the argument in the eyes of most viewers.
     

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