Elections 2016 New Hampshire Primary Discussion

Who wins the NH Primary? (Pick one for each party)

  • Hillary Clinton (D)

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Bernie Sanders (D)

    Votes: 31 91.2%

  • Donald Trump (..R)

    Votes: 26 76.5%

  • Ted Cruz (R)

    Votes: 2 5.9%

  • Marco Rubio (R)

    Votes: 4 11.8%

  • John Kasich (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Jeb Bush (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Chris Christie (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ben Carson (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Carly Fiorina (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Vermin Supreme (I)

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .
ncordless said:
Well Christie is dropping out, Rubio is an imbecile. Maybe Kasich the Obamacare lover?
Click to expand...

Didn't stop Romney, if I had to bet today on the GOP nominee, I got Trump or Kasich, with Trump having the slight edge.

I don't think this country will ever forgive the Iraq war, and that the Bush family name is DOA for at least a generation in politics.
 
Kasich needs more cash, and immediate support infrastructure in S.C., and that needs to be done like now. Bush, Trump, Cruz, Rubio, have ground gaming going on now.
 
Watching an old grandmother get her shit pushed in by a crusty Jewish socialist (outside of the context of porn) was awesome.

Two trends from tonight I hope continue:
1. Sanders as a legitimate threat
2. Kasich getting a bump from these results
 
HendoRuaGOAT said:
Wow IGIT. Never would have thought, that you would think politics as usual is even plausible at this point.

Out of curiosity, what would it take for you to think the political establishment is dead on arrival this election?
Click to expand...

'evening HendoRuaGOAT,

well, i've thought that Bush would be the nominee for a year or so now - i haven't seen anything that would make me change my mind.

i just refuse to believe that the GOP voters will nominate Mr. Trump, because his platform is just too insane. i mean, lol, the guys over at Stormfront have had to upgrade their servers due to the spike in traffic because of Mr. Trump.

this is a guy that David Duke of all people has endorsed.

Ted Cruz, who won Iowa, is also a fellow who i cannot picture winning the nomination (though he'd be my preferred choice to advance, since his nomination would result in the destruction of the modern day GOP, and possibly hand the Democrats the Senate).

eventually all those votes for establishment guys are going to get winnowed down, and i think Mr. Bush is going to scoop up the support.

no one on this forum agrees with me, but that's still pretty much how i see things playing out. i could be wrong, and maybe Mr. Rubio will come back from his awful showing tonight, but my money is still on Mr. Bush for now.

- IGIT
 
Last edited:
HendoRuaGOAT said:
Didn't stop Romney, if I had to bet today on the GOP nominee, I got Trump or Kasich, with Trump having the slight edge.

I don't think this country will ever forgive the Iraq war, and that the Bush family name is DOA for at least a generation in politics.
Click to expand...
Perhaps. I think Kasich had to track too far to the left to differentiate himself from the pack to compete in most states.

Bush is damaged goods, but if he can stick it out he becomes "not Trump" and "not Cruz" and that still might be enough to overcome his last name.
 
Unfortunately for Kasich, unless this leads to him getting substantial donations, he probably will not last a ton longer, especially as they head to more conservative evangelical waters.

As for Bernie, I want to see what this does for his poll numbers, because he has not been polling well in the next few states, especially SC.
 
ncordless said:
Paul really spoke to young right wingers. But that's not a base that wins elections. Bernie speaks to young left wingers, and that actually can be a strong foundation. Purely numbers.
Click to expand...
Who knew that being the most popular internet candidate in history wouldn't transfer to reality?

Seriously though, Bernie is tapping into a sentiment that I completely understand, because it affects me as well. People who did what they were told, went to college to get an education and a head start in the workforce, are leaving college, struggling to find work with burdensome student loan debt hanging around their necks like a paralyzing albatross. I'm not into Bernie's "get shit for free!" campaign, but I understand why he's getting so much support (and it's quite telling that Hillary is trying to steal his message at every turn).
 
After this primary season, if we end up with Bush vs Clinton, how pissed would the electorate be?
 
sodapopinski said:
Watching an old grandmother get her shit pushed in by a crusty Jewish socialist (outside of the context of porn) was awesome.

Two trends from tonight I hope continue:
1. Sanders as a legitimate threat
2. Kasich getting a bump from these results
Click to expand...

Kasich is going to get destroyed in the next debate.
 
SidJustice said:
Unfortunately for Kasich, unless this leads to him getting substantial donations, he probably will not last a ton longer, especially as they head to more conservative evangelical waters.

As for Bernie, I want to see what this does for his poll numbers, because he has not been polling well in the next few states, especially SC.
Click to expand...

Agreed, on Kasich. He went all in for NH, and he's relying on new donations for further momentum. If he doesn't get it, he'll run out of cash very very quickly.

And he's now a big target in the debates, and he hasn't responded to attacks in an effective way in past performances. I recall Cruz owning him once, badly.

And he'd have to attack Trump and Cruz to keep being viable, at the debates and in ads. I can't see him coming out on top in either senario.
 
I'm pretty disappointed in the way this primary was handled, tbh. It seemed like minutes after the polls closed, there were already winners, whereas in Iowa the drama unfolded differently.
 
From Bush campaign: Expect scorch earth attack against Kasich and Rubio in S.C.
 
sodapopinski said:
I'm pretty disappointed in the way this primary was handled, tbh. It seemed like minutes after the polls closed, there were already winners, whereas in Iowa the drama unfolded differently.
Click to expand...

it's not hard actually. Exit polls, sample sizes, and confidence intervals. When you sample 60 people and 42 of these say they voted Trump, then combine these results from samples from different area, and diverse, it paints the picture.

Ca0vqyiUsAEBZ9b.jpg
 
If Rubio finishes behind Bush, this really can change a lot. An consolidated establishment lane should still be favored for one reason. Many of the later blue/purples states are Super Tuesday are all or nothing states. Trump, Cruz and whoever else are going to split delegates in many of the red states and then they are going to get nothing in states after. This scenario was far more likely with Trump dropping out and it becoming Rubio/Cruz. If Trump stays in with Cruz, it really begs the question of a contested convention the way it plays out.

Thing with tonight is I think the establishment's path gets more blurry. Only Christie might drop out which still doesn't solidify the support. It's possible Christie has permanently Rubio's chances for 2016 before leaving and we now have Kasich as the proposed frontrunner, who imo isn't going to perform well in the next debates or in the south compared to what Rubio could've did. Bush now actually has some air to his campaign if he maintains a lead over Rubio tonight because he can play the survival game between the two.

Big question will be if the money shifts back from Rubio to Kasich or Jeb after this. Also, will the endorsements dry up for Rubio who had just became the frontrunner with congressional/governor endorsements in fivethirtyeights rankings.

I'd have to say Cruz's stock goes up after tonight. He may have finished third and if Kasich really becomes the establishment lane guy, that makes him a far more favorite on Super Tuesday compared to maybe what Rubio could've done.
 
IGIT said:
eventually all those votes for establishment guys are going to get winnowed down, and i think Mr. Bush is going to scoop up the support.

no one on this forum agrees with me, but that's still pretty much how i see things playing out.

- IGIT
Click to expand...

There are other people here that agree. However, the longer it takes to winnow the field the less chance the establishment candidate has. If the GOP establishment hasn't settled on a single candidate by Super Tuesday then Trump or Cruz will be the nominee.

Rubio should have never messed with Jeb to begin with. He should have played the good protege, taken the VP spot, and waited his turn. Bush/Rubio would have had a good chance in the general. He got greedy. Now the whole party could be fucked. Haha.
 
sodapopinski said:
I don't know, Christie Creme won't be there to throw out haymakers.

Howard Dean had nothing on Ron Paul (and Dean looked poised to take the nomination before the screech).
Click to expand...

I'd like to believe Kasich could do well but his best debates were the first one in his own state and the recent one where he realized he should do more than just talk about his record during his whole allotted time. Problem with him is I don't think he does well with exchanges. Christie was able to do that for him last debate.

The Dean comment isn't accurate. Dean was slowly dropping off in the polls before Iowa's caucus and now the media pretends he was the frontrunner at the time and the scream destroyed him. Just as inaccurate as Carter leading Reagan all the way until the end.
 
sodapopinski said:
I don't know, Christie Creme won't be there to throw out haymakers.
Click to expand...

His 'happy warrior' schtick is short-term. He's going to have to attack the other candidates because his numbers everywhere else are very low. And he's not the type that sounds good while attacking, and he's got his shit pushed in by the counter punches.

This will be his only primary that will be percieved as a victory.

[Quite]Howard Dean had nothing on Ron Paul (and Dean looked poised to take the nomination before the screech).[/QUOTE]

He was poised to win Iowa, and placed third. That alone put in question all the other polls that were in his favor.

We'll never know how well he would have done, because of the screech and the hilarity afterwards.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,280,186
Messages
58,264,492
Members
175,986
Latest member
Dakota DeSousa

Share this page

Back
Top