I posted this a bit ago in the debate thread, its more relevant here.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
There hasn't been any reliable polls since the debate, it's too short of a timeframe before the primary to estimate who benefited, and who didn't, on Saturday.
But after the good showing by Trump, in possibly his best debate, it's safe to say he's probably still going to win NH tomorrow.
But as the average of polls of NH show in the link above, it's a three way tie within the margin for error for second place. As stated, the polls are from before the debate, but it'd be surprising for Rubio to sustain the same numbers after that craptacular performance in which he got exposed by Christie. But Cruz didn't have the best performance in the debate before Iowa, and still won by four points.
But I'm leaning toward either Kasich or Cruz. Kasich but his heart and soul into NH by attending a hundred townhalls, so it's safe to say he's formed a bond with NH in the same way Cruz did with Iowa. But Cruz had a good debate performance as well, and the moment he spoke about his sister and nephew was very gripping for those that didn't know about it previously.
But people like to vote for a candidate they're confident has the ability, if not the probability, to win. Kasich has poured the majority of his rescources into NH, and if he survives it, probably wouldn't last much longer anyway.
Cruz hasn't been hurt by the supposedly 'dirty tactics' said that his campaign employees took part in, as much as the media would wish it did. His numbers have risen in nationwide polls since Iowa, gradually.
Objectively, it's either Kasich or Cruz that will come in 2nd. Non-objectively, I'm leaning towards Cruz. He pulled a win out of Iowa by a comforable margin, wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds expectations here and comes in second.