Elections 2016 New Hampshire Primary Discussion

[GearSolidMetal]

I think he somewhat has with the money he's thrown at him. Pretty sure he's already done a lot of damage to his name.

It's safe to say, they're no longer best buddies.

I don't think Romney likes Jeb after what happened this cycle. I don't know if Romney even wanted in but he didn't like the idea that he was handing it over to Bush and even commented when he announced he wasn't running that the party needed a new generation of GOP politicans to take the party. I really think Romney secretly endorses Rubio and wants to watch Jeb crash and burn. Rubio campaigned for Romney in 2012 and Romney said he was amazing with crowds and it made him a tempting shortlist option for VP. I truly wonder if the original choice Romney had for VP wasn't Ryan.

Given the appeal of outsiders to primary voters, it's safe to say Romney would have crashed and burned.

 

[Lead]

Too risky. Trump is the Alpha of the group, and if Christie made a substantive attack, then all Trump would have to do is make a joke and he'd come out on top.

Bush tried it with the imminent domain subject, and while he had the substantive argument, Trump just 'shushed' him and won the argument in the eyes of most viewers.

I actually think Jeb won that argument but it largely didn't matter for the context of New Hampshire. I guess that could go the same to Christie but my point is he was the lowest polling out of the four and it may be generally harder to pull votes from the other three than it would to pull some from Trump possibly. They both are the NE Republican type candidate so there is possibility for voters to switch. Bringing Rubio down only allowed for one of the others to take his place and Christie might be realizing that now. It would be really rough for all the Town Halls he did to do significantly worse than others. Kasich did a lot as well and I think his work has a better chance of paying off for some reason.

 

[Lead]

It's safe to say, they're no longer best buddies.



Given the appeal of outsiders to primary voters, it's safe to say Romney would have crashed and burned.

Romney needed to understand 2012 was establishment v. anti-establishment with weaker candidates jumping in on the anti side during Obama's second run. 2016 is multiple establishment candidates (not a non-starter like Huntsman), and multiple strong (in the sense of campaigning/debating) anti candidates. All Romney had to do in 2012 was continue to left the other guys crash by themselves until voters realized there was nowhere else to go.

 

[Lead]

Politico is reporting some precincts are beginning voting at midnight tonight.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Romney needed to understand 2012 was establishment v. anti-establishment with weaker candidates jumping in on the anti side during Obama's second run. 2016 is multiple establishment candidates (not a non-starter like Huntsman), and multiple strong (in the sense of campaigning/debating) anti candidates. All Romney had to do in 2012 was continue to left the other guys crash by themselves until voters realized there was nowhere else to go.

Wholeheartedly agree.

This election cycle is a completely different beast.

Romney would have been chewed up and spit out by now.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Politico is reporting some precincts are beginning voting at midnight tonight.

Who the hell would vote in the middle of the night?

Tweakers?

This isn't a highly anticipated movie opening.

 

[Lead]

Who the hell would vote in the middle of the night?

Tweakers?

This isn't a highly anticipated movie opening.

The podcasts I've been listening too have all kinda mentioned the general population of NH is far more into this than Iowa. I guess more of them seem to embrace it than maybe a faction of Iowa. It's possible we could see another record voting turnout.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

The podcasts I've been listening too have all kinda mentioned the general population of NH is far more into this than Iowa. I guess more of them seem to embrace it than maybe a faction of Iowa. It's possible we could see another record voting turnout.

Ok, buy more voting booths.

Opening voting precincts at midnight is a weird decision.

 

[bad seed]

Who the hell would vote in the middle of the night?

Tweakers?

This isn't a highly anticipated movie opening.

Trump and Bernie fanatics would line up overnight for this.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Trump and Bernie fanatics would line up overnight for this.

That'd be hilarious, if true.

 

[IGIT]

It would be awesome to watch Hillary and Rubio pull the upsets. Just to watch the reaction of those who claim to know the future and are so blinded by hate would be amusing.

All in all love all around lets make this a clean and good race.

lol SOA,

when the race turns to South Carolina, are you going to say that it would be awesome to see some upsets?

- IGIT

 

[Gandhi]

I was tempted to make the poll says who gets second for GOP rather than first but people would get confused. That definitiely is going to be what I watch for. I think it's Rubio or Kasich. Can't see Jeb getting it and I think Christie is too low right now to pull out a second finish. There are a lot of rumors from competing campaigns about internal polls showing Rubio dropping hard but I really don't believe that. If he is, Kasich's in the best spot to take second.

What would be even more hilarious is the establishment splitting the vote enough that Cruz gets second. They already made it next to impossible for one of them to win, splitting their base. If they got the same amount of support Romney did or their combine polling show, they would be the projected front runner right now.

Either way, someone from that four has to drop out after tonight. Hopefully it's Jeb at minimum and I'd prefer Christie as well.

Christie could stay on with all the hedge money and he has a big state coming up and jeb/Rubio stay could stay until Florida. I would love K to move up but he has some tough states coming down the pipe. Cruz in second would be is a disaster but unless K is in second, I would be all for it, like watching traffic accident

 

[in the]

Wouldn't surprise me if Trump and Sanders win by less than 10%. Though I think Vermin Supreme might knock one of them off.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Hillary just accused Vermin Supreme of accepting free checking from big banks.

 

[KOQ24]

wouldnt be surprised if Trump finds himself in 2nd place tonight.
Though Rubio mightve bottled that chance with his bad debate performance

 

[JDragon]

wouldnt be surprised if Trump finds himself in 2nd place tonight.
Though Rubio mightve bottled that chance with his bad debate performance

"Bad debate performance" is an understatement. IMO if the Republican debate was a freestyle battle (what a thought), Christie would have bodybagged him.

As much as I said if I were a moderate leaning Republican, I'd want Rubio to be my candidate (despite some of his more radical views), while this is still true (as the best candidate in Kasich stands no chance of winning), Rubio is badly damaged IMO. Christie humiliated him.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Politico is reporting some precincts are beginning voting at midnight tonight.

There is a tradition in N.H that this small town cast its vote at midnight.

The results were:
Sanders 4 votes
Kasich 3 votes
Trump 2 votes

 

[ShoelessRye]

I hope Hillary can keep it within 10 point loss, but it could be a lot bigger.
Sanders 57
Hillary 43

On the GOP side -

Trump 26
Kasich 17
Bush 15
Rubio 15
Cruz 11
Christie 9
Fiorina 4
Carson 3

 

[rshawneecarbon1]

1% reporting.

Cruz kasich trump tied at 24.3%

Sanders 61% hilarity 32%

 

[ucunc156]

The real story is second place on the R side.

Do we get Robo Rubio, an inept establishmentarian, or a real moderate.

Go Kasich

absolutely. Republicans should never bitch about balancing the budget ever again if they don't elect kasich.