Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[andnowweknow]

You're missing what "the South" means as it pertai

It means Southerners. I've driven through the South from D.C. to Florida and from Georgia straight across through Texas. Culturally, they're different from the N.E. and the West Coast.

Is that what you mean? That they don't intrinsically trust someone from Vermont over someone with ties to another Southern state - Arkansas?

They are certainly "different". The South has been inferior and frankly backwards as fuck since the civil war. That isn't an indictment of everyone in the South, the fact that they set the tone for nominations in both parties is a problem though.

How much further do we need to know to realize the South shouldn't be determining the trajectory of nominations?

 

[VivaRevolution]

So it is a day later. I haven't looked at the exit polling.

Questions for anyone who has.............

With 3% of the vote in, in Ohio, Clinton was up by 33%. All counties were reporting, with atleast 300 votes. The larger counties were well above that number.

In what world of statistics, do we then see a 17% swing to Sanders?

Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, all go 50/50, but Clinton wins Ohio by the same margin as NC....How does this happen?

Anyone with even an attempt to explain this away?

 

[Octavian]

So it is a day later. I haven't looked at the exit polling.

Questions for anyone who has.............

With 3% of the vote in, in Ohio, Clinton was up by 33%. All counties were reporting, with atleast 300 votes. The larger counties were well above that number.

In what world of statistics, do we then see a 17% swing to Sanders?

Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, all go 50/50, but Clinton wins Ohio by the same margin as NC....How does this happen?

Anyone with even an attempt to explain this away?

These posts are awesome!

 

[Space]

Last night definitely was a rustling night. A lot of big things just dropped immediately and people had to cope with it. Definitely not a good night if you were pro Bernie or anti Trump

 

[Lead]

So it is a day later. I haven't looked at the exit polling.

Questions for anyone who has.............

With 3% of the vote in, in Ohio, Clinton was up by 33%. All counties were reporting, with atleast 300 votes. The larger counties were well above that number.

In what world of statistics, do we then see a 17% swing to Sanders?

Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, all go 50/50, but Clinton wins Ohio by the same margin as NC....How does this happen?

Anyone with even an attempt to explain this away?

Fivethirtyeight is still confused over the big difference in the two states and couldn't think of what it was even on a broad psychology sense. They weren't calling fraud though. Ask yourself why didn't you call fraud when Bernie won by a 20 point swing in the polls but for Ohio it's now suspicious when it was a swing the opposite way

 

[Anung Un Rama]

What bullshit? Everything I said is true, and I intended for it to be true. None of your whining is relevant to anything, and your silly attacks on Obama just add to my point. You don't care or even know about policy, but you go with what is "cool."

Look, you supported the candidate of killing innocent people in 2012 and the candidate most dedicated to the same policy this time. Policy and its effects on real people's lives don't matter to the you at all. It's all about the establishment candidate that is chosen by the DNC. You must be a sociopath.

 

[in the]

3% reporting in Ohio, Clinton 66, Sanders 33. That is not realistic.

Fuck all of this.

I don't care anymore. Go Trump go. Burn this country down!

I completely missed all the anarchy last night. So what happened? Did Clinton win the cemetery vote again?

 

[VivaRevolution]

Fivethirtyeight is still confused over the big difference in the two states and couldn't think of what it was even on a broad psychology sense. They weren't calling fraud though. Ask yourself why didn't you call fraud when Bernie won by a 20 point swing in the polls but for Ohio it's now suspicious when it was a swing the opposite way

Because their was no regional equivalent to measure it by. Remember, I predicted Sanders would win Michigan, and said it would be because there was a regional calculation to take into effect here.

This regional difference, is where my complaint and accusations of fraud are from. Not to mention that Ohio is one of two states with a whole lot of questions about voter fraud in the past.

 

[SouthoftheAndes]

Cruz is an outside who is disliked by GOP establishment. So I wonder if they will really back him over Trump. Rumor had it that a newspaper Sheldon Adelson owned pumped out some pro Trump material. It makes one wonder who they will go with now that Rubio is done.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...-results/2016/03/sheldon-adelson-trump-220860

Adelson seems to be warming up to the idea of supporting Trump. Trump doesn't need AdelsonS money but it could help as could the support from a wider Donor class and GOP establishment. Cruz also has less cross over appeal.

 

[Lead]

Because their was no regional equivalent to measure it by. Remember, I predicted Sanders would win Michigan, and said it would be because there was a regional calculation to take into effect here.

This regional difference, is where my complaint and accusations of fraud are from. Not to mention that Ohio is one of two states with a whole lot of questions about voter fraud in the past.

You've predicted Bernie winning a lot of states he wasn't suppose to. That doesn't make me think you knew something that was missing there. You can poll regionally but Tuesday seems to show that would've been an over correction and not just cause of Ohio. Michigan seems to be an exception rather than a rule with how they polled it.

 

[Lead]

Cruz is an outside who is dislike by GOP establishment. So I wonder if they will really back him over Trump. Rumor had it that a newspaper Sheldon Adelson owned pumped out so pro Trump material. It makes one wonder who they will go with now that Rubio is done.

Doesn't adelson mostly just care about his casinos? I can see him easily backing Trump on that note. Adelson seemed to have been picky this year.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I completely missed all the anarchy last night. So what happened? Did Clinton win the cemetery vote again?

Something happened man, not sure what, but it smells like fraud to me.

We saw a 17% swing for Sanders, when we had a sample size in each county, that should have prevented any kind of swing like that.

Then we have the fact that Missouri, Michigan, and Illinois, all went 50-50, and no one can explain why Clinton won by 14%, and was originally showing a 33% lead.

Why did Ohio look like NC(worse originally), not the other rust belt states. I haven't been able to find one good explanation for this, and considering I had a partial meltdown as soon as I saw it, and immediately recognized that something was amiss, to me that says something.

Also consider we have the reports of widespread voting by democrats, to stop Trump in Ohio. I have a hard time believing that Sanders supporters would vote for Kasich, to give Clinton the nomination.

 

[VivaRevolution]

You've predicted Bernie winning a lot of states he wasn't suppose to. That doesn't make me think you knew something that was missing there. You can poll regionally but Tuesday seems to show that would've been an over correction and not just cause of Ohio. Michigan seems to be an exception rather than a rule with how they polled it.

When? Where?

I think I mentioned that I thought Virginia would be competitive for Bernie. That is the only thing I can thing of. In fact I remember people flipping out when I said Bernie was going to win Michigan.

Also, how is Michigan the exception when Illinois, and Missouri went the same way?

 

[SouthoftheAndes]

Doesn't adelson mostly just care about his casinos? I can see him easily backing Trump on that note. Adelson seemed to have been picky this year.

Casinos, low taxes, capitalism, socially liberal and Israel. All he cares about and his philanthropy activities.

Id imagine Trump would be better for that wing of the GOP party than Cruz. Considering Cruz wants to eliminate things like the IRS, EPA, DOE and many more. Agencies which people like Adelson don't seem to be opposed to and often have use for.

 

[Lead]

When? Where?

Also, how is Michigan the exception when Illinois, and Missouri went the same way?

The people who analyze this data for their forecasts run multiple types to see the strength of each. Fivethirtyeight was considering whether a regional model would be better with a "southern" factor, etc. they said Tuesday made them realize switching to that model would've been an over correction now that they see more state results from that area and Michigan appears to be an exception they can't explain. Michigan actually is the more suspicious state now that more data is out.

Also, I could believe the Kasich think but I'm not sure that really explains it all. Probably a lot of factors. I do know almost every liberal I ask about a GOP candidate, they like Kasich and not even in the sense of lesser of evils. Some even say they'd vote for him in a ge and this is in PA I hear this stuff. Entirely possible in the guys state he's governing that people chose to vote for him period and didn't care about the party makeup

 

[Lead]

Casinos, low taxes, capitalism, socially liberal and Israel. All he cares about and his philanthropy activities.

Id imagine Trump would be better for that wing of the GOP party than Cruz. Considering Cruz wants to eliminate things like the IRS, EPA, DOE and many more. Agencies which people like Adelson don't seem to be opposed to and often have use for.

Thats right. I forgot about the Israel thing. I'd say he's Israel and casinos and could care less outside of that ultimately. A bunch of people tried to court him and he never seem satisfied

 

[in the]

Something happened man, not sure what, but it smells like fraud to me.

We saw a 17% swing for Sanders, when we had a sample size in each county, that should have prevented any kind of swing like that.

Then we have the fact that Missouri, Michigan, and Illinois, all went 50-50, and no one can explain why Clinton won by 14%, and was originally showing a 33% lead.

Why did Ohio look like NC(worse originally), not the other rust belt states. I haven't been able to find one good explanation for this, and considering I had a partial meltdown as soon as I saw it, and immediately recognized that something was amiss, to me that says something.

Also consider we have the reports of widespread voting by democrats, to stop Trump in Ohio. I have a hard time believing that Sanders supporters would vote for Kasich, to give Clinton the nomination.

I want to punch every Republican contributor in the face who goes on television and says that Democrats are subverting the Republican primaries by voting for Trump because he'd be easier to run against than Cruz or Kasich. Yeah, at a time when Hillary and Bernie are in a dogfight for their own nomination, why would any of their supporters potentially ruin their candidate's chances of securing the Democratic nomination just to try to get Trump to win the Republican nomination?

It makes no sense and the only people perpetrating that myth are a bunch of shills and hacks.

 

[VivaRevolution]

The people who analyze this data for their forecasts run multiple types to see the strength of each. Fivethirtyeight was considering whether a regional model would be better with a "southern" factor, etc. they said Tuesday made them realize switching to that model would've been an over correction now that they see more state results from that area and Michigan appears to be an exception they can't explain. Michigan actually is the more suspicious state now that more data is out.

Also, I could believe the Kasich think but I'm not sure that really explains it all. Probably a lot of factors. I do know almost every liberal I ask about a GOP candidate, they like Kasich and not even in the sense of lesser of evils. Some even say they'd vote for him in a ge and this is in PA I hear this stuff. Entirely possible in the guys state he's governing that people chose to vote for him period and didn't care about the party makeup

You keep saying Michigan was the exception, when Illinois, and Missouri went the same way.

Ohio is the outlier.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I want to punch every Republican contributor in the face who goes on television and says that Democrats are subverting the Republican primaries by voting for Trump because he'd be easier to run against than Cruz or Kasich. Yeah, at a time when Hillary and Bernie are in a dogfight for their own nomination, why would any of their supporters potentially ruin their candidate's chances of securing the Democratic nomination just to try to get Trump to win the Republican nomination?

It makes no sense and the only people perpetrating that myth are a bunch of shills and hacks.

Hmmmm, I heard it the other way. They were voting in the primary to keep Trump out.

The whole thing sounds like manufactured media propaganda to be honest.

 

[wandiswar]

The real pussies are the ones who can't accept there is no afterlife.