Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Feb 26, 2016.
Real Clear Politics South Carolina Polling Average
FiveThirtyEight's Polling Forecast
Anything less than a 15 point win for Hillary is bad news for her.
Yeah, I think Hillary wins big. You never know, though.
Isn't this the ultimate gimme for Hillary? Thread-worthy even?
100% agree. If Bernie closes to 15% or below, time to hit the panic button Clinton.
If Bernie can't close to below 20%, he is in trouble. If the BLM video doesn't move the black vote at all, what will?
People want to know why Bernie didn't have security remove the BLM protesters in Seattle, this is why. It makes you look like you are trying to silence dissent, and don't care about the black communities issues.
It is a political calculation, and one that Clinton made wrongly.
I'd be shocked if Sanders came within 20 points of Clinton.
He is basically there now.
__________________________________________Clinton Sanders Undecided
Emerson College Polling Society 2/22 - 2/24 266 LV 60_______37 - - - - - 3
ARG 2/17 - 2/18 400_______________________LV 61_______32 - - - - - 5
FOX 2/15 - 2/17 642_______________________LV 56_______28 - - - - - 12
NBC/WSJ/Marist 2/15 - 2/17 425_____________LV 60_______32 - - - - - 8
Bloomberg/Selzer 2/13 - 2/17 403____________LV 53_______31 - - - - - 16
ARG 2/14 - 2/16 400_______________________LV 61_______31 - - - - - 7
Monmouth University 2/14 - 2/16 403__________LV 59_______30 - - - - - 11
PPP (D) 2/14 - 2/15 525____________________LV 55_______34 - - - - - 12
Edit: Notice the sample size on all those polls. None of them are really reliable. This seems to be the norm in this Primary. The only state I see good polling info on for Super Tuesday is Texas.
Heres hoping SC wakes up in time.
He literally isn't within 20 in a single of those polls. Down 23, 29, 28, 28, 22, 30, 29, 21.
God I love that man!!!!! it's an incredible, dare I say baffling, to think how a person could show that same kind of unshakable judgment for all of these years now. Those are the qualities that I want for the leader of our country. I've never wanted a man to be president so bad.
Uh-huh, and what about those undecided voters?
21,22, and 23 are pretty close to 20, and as I pointed out the sample size for all of those polls, are ridiculous. I don't trust any of them. Even the ones that say Bernie is close to 20.
And I voted for Sanders in this poll even though I know Hillary is going to win in South Carolina. I just can't bring myself to select that walking lie over Bernie.
You'd have to assume that the undecided voters would go 55% or (much) more to Bernie to assume he would be within 20 pts in any of those polls.
It'll be a crushing loss. Make peace with it and prepare for Super Tuesday.
LOL, I love being the one accused of wearing rose colored glasses, when I don't speak in certainties, like so many seem to like to do.
Can you just look into your crystal ball, and tell me who the nominee is so I can stop sending money to Bernie?
Apparently you're a clinton shill now.
Saying he's basically within 20 points when every poll has him outside of that range is just lying. He may close that gap: I'd just be surprised. Keep donating, but don't vest a lot in SC-- it's Clinton's gimme state.
Haha, yup. I just like to keep my optimism within reason. I still think Sanders has a decent shot to win, just not in SC.
No it isn't a lie, claiming a poll with 400 people as a sample size as a reliable indicator most certainly is a lie though.
Claiming the BLM video of Clinton, that you know it will not have an effect, is wishful thinking.
Again my statement was that polling basically showed Sanders close to 20% today, this is grey, for sure, but not a inaccurate statement.
Okay guys. Let's assume Betnie doesn't lose by twenty and that's an expectation win. Does that really change anyone's idea how Super Tuesday or the rest of the races goes of Hillary doesn't win by over 20?
I understand the expectations game in Iowa and NH. I guess I do in SC too but not in this context cause it's turning the message a candidate got steam rolled to they somehow got a symbolic win
I agree. I'm guessing as soon as the polls close the projection will be made. A win is a win. Putting back to back wins after N.H is all she needs to start steam rolling Bernie.
Yea the expectations game only works really in the first state or two, especially if it's already a two man race. With the GOP side, it definitely matter a little more cause there were more places but a two man race is win or lose really, especially when winner take all states won't be separating delegates after 50%
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