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The article listed one sentence from Twine, about the temps not reaching below a set parameter. I fail to see how this demonstrates his lack of understanding pertaining to the difference.
Opinion “We just don’t expect temps to be below 10 degrees Fahrenheit in Duluth anymore" - Climate Professor
- Thread starter Whippy McGee
- Start date
The article listed one sentence from Twine, about the temps not reaching below a set parameter. I fail to see how this demonstrates his lack of understanding pertaining to the difference.
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Polar Vortex in U.S. May be Example of Global Warming
Australia is experiencing record heat waves, apparently. It sounds like they don't have this figured out completely because the Polar Vortex is such a rare event, meaning data is more scarce, but they are not confused about mean temperatures across the globe, and they definitely aren't confused about the catastrophic levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere (or resulting carbonic acid levels in our oceans).
What are the average winter temperatures in Duluth over the past century. Can you chart that?
Climate Central said:While the ongoing cold snap is breaking records from Minnesota to Florida, it will not go down in history as the most significant Arctic outbreak in U.S. history, not even by a longshot. Scientists said the deep freeze gripping the U.S. does not indicate a halt or reversal in global warming trends, either. In fact, it may be a counterintuitive example of global warming in action.
Such weather patterns, which can feature relatively mild conditions in the Arctic at the same time dangerously cold conditions exist in vast parts of the lower 48, may be tied to the rapid warming and loss of sea ice in the Arctic due, in part, to manmade climate change.
Arctic warming is altering the heat balance between the North Pole and the equator, which is what drives the strong current of upper level winds in the northern hemisphere commonly known as the jet stream. Some studies show that if that balance is altered then some types of extreme weather events become more likely to occur.
During the past week, while much of North America has seen frigid temperatures, weather maps show a strip of orange and red hues, indicating above-average temperatures, across parts of the Arctic, Scandinavia, Europe and Asia.
Visualization of winds at the jet stream level on January 6, showing a deep dip or trough in the jet stream above the U.S., transporting Arctic air southward.
Credit: Earth/Cameron Beccario.
The forecast high temperature in Fairbanks, Alaska, on Monday was in the 20s Fahrenheit — warmer than many locations in Georgia and Alabama. That fits in with the so-called “Arctic Paradox” or “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” pattern that researchers first identified several years ago. Such patterns bring comparatively mild conditions to the Arctic while places far to the south are thrown into a deep freeze.
“I do think that what has happened in the North America, including the U.S. this winter, so far fits under the paradigm of ‘warm Arctic cold continents,’ ” Judah Cohen, a climate forecaster at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Massachussetts, said in an email.
The warmth in the Arctic made headlines in early December when the temperature hit 39°F in Prudhoe Bay, north of the Arctic Circle. That was the highest December temperature on record there since at least 1968, according to the National Weather Service.
The forecast high temperature in Fairbanks, Alaska, on Monday was in the 20s Fahrenheit — warmer than many locations in Georgia and Alabama. That fits in with the so-called “Arctic Paradox” or “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” pattern that researchers first identified several years ago. Such patterns bring comparatively mild conditions to the Arctic while places far to the south are thrown into a deep freeze.
“I do think that what has happened in the North America, including the U.S. this winter, so far fits under the paradigm of ‘warm Arctic cold continents,’ ” Judah Cohen, a climate forecaster at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Massachussetts, said in an email.
The warmth in the Arctic made headlines in early December when the temperature hit 39°F in Prudhoe Bay, north of the Arctic Circle. That was the highest December temperature on record there since at least 1968, according to the National Weather Service.
Cohen published a study in September that found this Arctic paradox pattern has become common in years with low fall sea ice cover and rapidly advancing fall snow cover across parts of Asia, and that there is a likely link between the trends. The paper found the pattern was observed during the winter of 2012-2013, following the lowest fall sea ice extent on record in September 2012.
The Arctic has had a mild winter so far, in part because of an area of high pressure in the North Pacific Ocean that has blocked the flow of weather systems like a stop sign at an intersection, forcing the jet stream northward over western Canada, and then back down to the southeast across the U.S. That favors episodic outbreaks of cold air in the East, Cohen said, but not extended cold.
Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Rutgers University and the most prominent proponent of the hypothesis that Arctic warming is altering the jet stream around the Northern Hemisphere, told Climate Central that while the cold snap is brief in duration, it fits with patterns observed this year and in other recent years.
“The persistence of the pattern seems consistent with an amplified jet stream configuration that we expect to see occur more frequently as the Arctic continues to warm disproportionately,” Francis said in an email.
However, much of the evidence put forward thus far has shown correlations between sea ice loss and particular weather patterns, but has not revealed the direct physical connections and causation between the two, leading many mainstream climate scientists to be skeptical of the work so far.
The state of the science on the links between Arctic warming and weather extremes in the midlatitudes can be likened to a court case. Scientists have gathered reams of mainly circumstantial evidence to prove a suspect’s guilt, or in this case, the existence of an Arctic warming link. But such evidence, which comes in the form of published studies in peer reviewed scientific journals, may not be enough to convince a jury quite yet.
Regardless of the strength of the Arctic connection, global average temperature trends tell a clear and compelling story of a warming planet, which one short-lived cold streak is not going to alter.
Since 1970, winters have been warming rapidly in the majority of the lower 48 states. The five most rapidly warming states, with winter average temperatures increasing by more than 4°F, were Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin, according to a 2013 Climate Central analysis. Many of those same states are bearing the brunt of the ongoing cold outbreak, but had the climate not warmed so much during the past few decades, it’s possible that this event would be even colder in those areas.
Global surface temperature departures from average during the past 30 days (through Jan. 4, 2014), showing the above-average temperatures throughout much of Europe, Asia, and the Arctic.
Credit: NOAA/ESRL.
November, the most recent month for which global data is available, was the warmest such month on record, all but guaranteeing that 2013 will go down on record as one of the top 10 warmest years, if not in the top 5. In Australia, 2013 was the continent’s hottest year on record.
Russia had its warmest November since records began there in 1891, with some parts of the country, including Siberia and the Arctic islands in the Kara Sea, seeing temperatures that were more than 14°F above the typical monthly average. In contrast, not a single region of the world was record cold for the month.
November also brought the string of consecutive above-average months on the planet to 345, with it being the 37th straight November with above-average temperatures compared to the 20th century average. That means that anyone younger than 28 has never experienced a colder-than-average month, globally speaking. The last below-average November global temperature was in November 1976, and the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
As unusual as the current cold is for the U.S., the global picture shows that January is not on course to break that 28-year warm streak, either. Even the U.S. may end up having a warmer-than-average month, if the latest outlooks prove correct.
While Most of U.S. Froze, Parts of Alaska Set Record Highs
2013 on Track to be Seventh Warmest Year Since 1850
In Australia, 2013 Was a Scorcher for the Record Books
Study Adds to Arctic Warming, Extreme Weather Debate
Arctic Outbreak: When the North Pole Came to Ohio
Coldest Air in Decades Clearing Customs, Entering U.S.
Australia is experiencing record heat waves, apparently. It sounds like they don't have this figured out completely because the Polar Vortex is such a rare event, meaning data is more scarce, but they are not confused about mean temperatures across the globe, and they definitely aren't confused about the catastrophic levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere (or resulting carbonic acid levels in our oceans).
What are the average winter temperatures in Duluth over the past century. Can you chart that?
Scientists study the problem, and most aren't hired to do it. They are usually burdened with seeking grants or other funding in order to research areas of human interest. The ones who are "hired" to figure out potential solutions are usually hired by governments who are alarmed by the terrifying consensus over the threat that has emerged to our species.
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^ Insult, strawman, strawman.
You clearly don't see the irony of calling other people idiots while pretending to know more about climate than the scientists who spend their entire careers studying the climate.
The scientists who study climate are idiots, and you know better? There's no way you are that deluded.
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I made points in different threads and in this one. Points always ignored,scientists once thought the earth was flat too. I’m not saying science hasn’t advanced what I’m saying is man made climate disaster is bs. The climate and earth are always in a state of change regardless of mankind. If you’d like to dispute that you’re free to discuss it. I guess my idiot insults were uncalled for but I’m really tired of this climate change doom and gloom just about on a daily basis.
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Actually TS believes the climate is warming... AS IT SHOULD BE WARMING NATURALLY... we are still coming out of the last Ice Age and the cycle is every 30,000 years. But, these wild ass claims that we are going to circumnavigate the globe via the North Pole and Duluth won't see -10 degrees anymore or for those that think Climate Change is the death of us all and soon.
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I shared one from less than 10 days ago... that's what makes this prediction even more egregious and ridiculous.
Wait are you to say we may still get really cold temperatures every so often in the Winter and still have global warming?
That’s the retarded thing about TS and his illiterate ilk, trends show a warming earth that does not mean there will still be brief cold snaps, what it means is the average cold temperature each year will be warmer and warmer.
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WRONG.
The planet should actually be cooling now because of a decrease in total solar irradiance. https://www.carbonbrief.org/why-the-sun-is-not-responsible-for-recent-climate-change
"A slight decrease in solar activity
It is also worth noting that almost all of the minor warming contribution from fluctuations in the sun’s output occurred before 1970.
In recent decades, when global temperatures have risen most steeply, TSI has been flat or even slightly declining, says Schmidt:
'The period of greatest warming – since about 1975 – has coincided with a slight decrease in solar activity.'"
Please stop posting about this, as you clearly have no idea wtf you are talking about. And hasn't this thread been done enough times by now?
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Sorry if I don't trust your cheap, poorly worded observations over those of the actual scientists who work with the relevant data in numerous fields of research.
They simply don't care about the truth, which may be the worst part of all
There are just as many scientists saying made made climate change is bs,they just don’t get any air time. Theres a million variables that effect climate and our atmospheric temp and we are only a small part of it. Doom and gloom and carbon taxes aren’t going to do shit,as soon as you admit that maybe we will be on the same page.
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This is the biggest problem with these science threads I've seen here. It is all about cherrypicking evidence to support your position, and there is a consistent lack of logical awareness to recognize frequent fallacies and bad "science."
You will spend more time arguing about how to go from A to B in a logical manner rather than actually engaging in scientific discourse.
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You gotta post evidence for a statement like that. https://grist.org/climate-energy/fo...-is-a-97-percent-consensus-on-climate-change/
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/meta
Abstract
The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.
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You both don't know what you are talking about.
We are barely out of a Glacial stage.
Oh well that does it it’s been us all along then.....
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