Will UFC still become bigger or go down before 2020?

[galleryy]

Bigger. Fighting is in our DNA.

Spoiler

just like porn

 

[galleryy]

Zuffa figured out really quickly (just after TUF) what today seems very obvious;
1. a PPV-centric revenue model is not enough
2. a need for growth beyond North America

and in the next decade every move they made addressed those two issues.

WME's needs are different. in 2004 few people had even heard of UFC or MMA; today everyone has. so how they grow their brand and revenue (and yes, viewership - worldwide) is different than the challenge from 12 years ago.

my guess is that in another 10 years the choices they make in the next few years will look obvious in retrospect, just like the decisions they made in 2006 look obvious now. and i guess that's my answer to TS as well. they won't falter by 2020, is my prediction, but "success" won't be easily defined by the average sherdogger either.

i'd like to see how scott coker will do with the ufc after the goof retires

 

[kflo]

ufc cashed out already.

fertitta's cashed out

 

[Sakuraba7]

With so many fighter who have expressed hate agant Reebok and now Ronda and Conor have left what can they actually do to raise their revenues if we say Ngannou will lose this saturday and Jon Jones will be out forever.

I am not saying that i want UFC to go down but i do want to see someone who can disrupt the market so the best fighters will not fight in UFC or Bellator.

For the European mma-scene i believe ACB can do well aslong they will start paying fighters with the same amount as UFC does and in asia Rizin will still do more and more events.

I remember 2007-2009 era when PRIDE went down, a lot of events was made such as Affliction,Dream, Sengoku etc. I hope one day we can see this again, its not good for the martial arts scene that UFC can control the market just like Coca Cola does with their sugar soda that makes people fat and get diabetes.

I am so with you on that (post-)PRIDE era of MMA with its healthy variety. I quit watching the sport when Strikeforce was purchased. First PRIDE, then Affliction, now Strikeforce all going down. There was no competition, and the UFC product was always boring to me. They barely had international talent until they bought out PRIDE, and had no heavyweight talent until they bought out Strikeforce.


I only came back to MMA a couple years ago with a young buck named Khabib. I noticed the UFC started signing some Russian talent, and started following the sport again. They used to have almost no Russian fighters before; that was M-1 Global's domain who UFC practically had a blacklist on. M-1 did a lot for MMA in Europe and Central-Asia, but Zuffa Zombies were always at its neck like its the worst thing on earth.

During the post-PRIDE years, MMA media used to cover the scene in Japan, and increasingly the scene in Russia. You can look those articles up yourself on sites like BloodyElbow/Sherdog. Then suddenly that stopped; i understand the Japan scene went underground with not many major promotions to follow, but the opposite was true for Russia. The scene there was booming! Yet, no coverage on M-1, ACB, WFCA, FNG; that seemed to have stopped around 3 years ago. Everything was now UFC-centric, then Bellator, with your occasional Rizin coverage.

Its continued that way to date, with the exception of your random Prospect report or some KO highlight. The Russian scene, arguably the most vibrant scene, receives next to no coverage like what it should.


As for ACB, those guys are throwing money down a pit. They have absolutely NO business sense whatever, wasting tons of money. I don't care if you're owned by a billionaire; money made by the owner's other business are separate from money made or retained by ACB. If you can't handle your expenses, you have NO future.

They hold random events in different parts of the world (w/ empty arenas), effectively building a solid fanbase in NONE when they should focus on select markets. Coker concentrated on California before doing shows elsewhere, the UFC concentrated on Vegas, PRIDE in Japan, so forth. ACB spends money flying in Herb Dean and John McCarthy to ref their shows. Those are "A list" refs, why spend thousands on that, and BOTH of them at once? Its small things like that which add up. They also have little to no TV coverage worldwide, and apparently the ACB owner says he wants his org to become the premier org? Never in a million years will that be, if this is how its run.

 

[TatooNU]

They will become more and more like major team sports. Will look a lot like this...

That was awesome except when skyscraper hammer fist that a guy at 16 seconds

 

[Kosmic]

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=ufc

 

[SeattleFightFan]

I know you’re just throwing random examples out there but there is a weird a coincidence here.

I’ve noticed a weird trend where viewership seems to be shrinking for UFC events, yet they seem to be expanding and making big, new deals to broadcast their content.

It’s like even though it seems to be trending gradually down hill it isn’t reflected in their negotiating power yet.

no, @nfffffku they aren't random examples. i am honestly and without prejudice asking you to consider what the definition of "bigger" is before asking "will UFC get bigger".

most sherdoggers don't think this through very well and they only associate UFC "success" with PPV sales. which would have made sense in 2006, but the UFC has spent the last decade finding revenue outside of PPV.

so again, if PPV sales went down in 2017 and gross revenue went up (due to increases in other revenue sources), is that a "successful" year for UFC, or isn't it? are they "bigger", or not? i don't need an answer because i only want you to understand and consider what it is i'm asking.
~~~
and yes, the dichotomy you describe between viewership and broadcast value is legit. it stands to reason that in the long term the UFC won't be able to continually ask for more $ if viewership goes down. OTOH, it's not as simple as "viewership". for example, demographic. historically the UFC demographic has been 18-35yo males, the most coveted demographic by advertisers. also, stickiness of the fanbase. and lastly, good ol fashioned supply and demand of sports - if 6 channels want sports, and all the other sports cost billions, then UFC at $400m/yr may seem like a much better deal than, say, NBA. these factors and more may influence why UFC has negotiating strength even though overall viewership seems to be on the decline.

anyway, props for thinking about this stuff and asking the right questions. if you want to go further down the rabbit hole, @FrankieNYC is absolutely the expert in this field, and if you want to read and consider all financial aspects around the UFC, just search for his posts. cheers.

 

[awymore]

UFC has reached its peak as far as viewership, I honestly believe.

They might try to break records for revenue or whatever, and they're always trying to figure out new ways to do that: increase the PPV price (again), Zuffa Boxing, pricier rights fees, whatever. But the org itself isn't going to get bigger with the fans post-2020. Others needs to step up and take some market share, just a matter of who.

I'd agree with this from a US perspective, but worldwide, I would have to assume their viewership will continually be increasing. Other than perhaps soccer, this is the most internationally recognized sport there is. Almost every nation has some form of martial arts training.

 

[brian]

I prefer one organization, when you have several big organizations then you don't get to see the fights you want which is dissapointing. I think UFC will rise again and probably be bigger than ever in 2020, a guy like Mcgregor legit came out of nowhere & i'm sure there will be more of that considering the talent in mma.

 

[lagofala]

One is growing fast but will only be really respected once they increase the quality of the fighters MMA wise. Perhaps in a decade.

 

[Sakuraba7]

I'd agree with this from a US perspective, but worldwide, I would have to assume their viewership will continually be increasing. Other than perhaps soccer, this is the most internationally recognized sport there is. Almost every nation has some form of martial arts training.

Their viewership overseas is nearing its peak, and will have reached it by 2020. Other promotions are huge overseas now. You have ONE in Southeast Asia; RIZIN in Japan and another promotion could break out by then; 4 major promotions in Russia and Central-Asia (M-1, ACB, FNG, WFCA) with dozens of smaller orgs throughout the Eastern Bloc. China is dominated by Kunlun and WLF.

And you're crazy calling it the 2nd most internationally recognized sport. As far as participation? Boxing and wrestling have just as many nations participating, if not more. Actually yes, its more. In terms of population count in its following, Rugby and Cricket are both bigger than MMA. You have 2 billion people who follow Cricket.

 

[FrankieNYC]

no, @nfffffku they aren't random examples. i am honestly and without prejudice asking you to consider what the definition of "bigger" is before asking "will UFC get bigger".

most sherdoggers don't think this through very well and they only associate UFC "success" with PPV sales. which would have made sense in 2006, but the UFC has spent the last decade finding revenue outside of PPV.

so again, if PPV sales went down in 2017 and gross revenue went up (due to increases in other revenue sources), is that a "successful" year for UFC, or isn't it? are they "bigger", or not? i don't need an answer because i only want you to understand and consider what it is i'm asking.
~~~
and yes, the dichotomy you describe between viewership and broadcast value is legit. it stands to reason that in the long term the UFC won't be able to continually ask for more $ if viewership goes down. OTOH, it's not as simple as "viewership". for example, demographic. historically the UFC demographic has been 18-35yo males, the most coveted demographic by advertisers. also, stickiness of the fanbase. and lastly, good ol fashioned supply and demand of sports - if 6 channels want sports, and all the other sports cost billions, then UFC at $400m/yr may seem like a much better deal than, say, NBA. these factors and more may influence why UFC has negotiating strength even though overall viewership seems to be on the decline.

anyway, props for thinking about this stuff and asking the right questions. if you want to go further down the rabbit hole, @FrankieNYC is absolutely the expert in this field, and if you want to read and consider all financial aspects around the UFC, just search for his posts. cheers.

Thank you for the words my man

 

[FrankieNYC]

and yes, the dichotomy you describe between viewership and broadcast value is legit. it stands to reason that in the long term the UFC won't be able to continually ask for more $ if viewership goes down. OTOH, it's not as simple as "viewership". for example, demographic. historically the UFC demographic has been 18-35yo males, the most coveted demographic by advertisers. also, stickiness of the fanbase. and lastly, good ol fashioned supply and demand of sports - if 6 channels want sports, and all the other sports cost billions, then UFC at $400m/yr may seem like a much better deal than, say, NBA. these factors and more may influence why UFC has negotiating strength even though overall viewership seems to be on the decline.

I wanted to isolate that reply, because you make a lot of sense.
Live sports is at a premium.
The UFC is the only sports programming who's rights are up for a few years & that puts them in a better position. NBC is wanting to get a sports franchise to go across their platforms & as of now is the top bidder against Fox.
That is the biggest reason Vince thinks the XFL can work in 2020. Platforms want live sports because they are less affected by DVR & delayed viewership & advertisers still get charged a premium.

 

[SammyPops]

It's been trending downwards in ppv buys for a bit now, no? I'm guessing not bigger than the old GSP, Brock, Silva days.

 

[UhHuhSure]

its basically a traveling circus until they do something different

 

[Steve-French]

Why do MMA Fans always want the UFC to fail? I'm guessing it's the fans that haven't been around that long. I'd rather have MMA on every weekend vs once every two months.

Financially the UFC is doing fine and is in nowhere near the pickle they were in the early 2000's. The UFC has established itself as a brand that is not going anywhere.

Pride was awesome, but it sucked having the talent split up all over the place. Once the UFC Absorbed Pride, Strikeforce, Affliction, WEC, IFL, and WFA we got to see all of the top guys fighting each other.

Just look at boxing's business model. Most of the time we are not getting the fights we want to see. This isn't pro wrestling where competition will always make the other league better (WWF vs WCW)

If the MMA organizations would have remained split up we would never have got to see...

Wand Chuck
Brock Overeem
Nog Mir
Shogun Machida
Werdum Cain
Shogun Liddel
Bigfoot Hunt
Barnet Arlovski
Rothwell Shuab
Hunt Mir
Shogun Forest
Wand Brian Stann
Hendo Anderson Silva
Cerrone Lawler
Rampage Jon Jones
Cormier Jones
Shogun Jones
Nog Couture
Condit GSP
Frankie Edgar Benson Henderson
Cowboy Diaz
Cro Cop Gonzaga
Hendo Bisping
Edgar Aldo


And many more fights that would have never happened.

 

[FrankieNYC]

Why do MMA Fans always want the UFC to fail?

I think a large part is the fact that MMA is a new sport & has grown in an era where the internet has grown.
The timing means fans are used to nitpicking & obsessing online about every aspect.
Also the internet is a very negative place so it will skew that way.

Add in that MMA is not a major sport like NFL, MLB, etc., where convos are easily outside of online.
If you want to talk MMA, you usually need to seek out a place online

 

[FrankieNYC]

Will UFC still become bigger or go down before 2020?

What is "bigger" to you?
Popularity or company profit?

If you are asking will UFC be more popular in 2020, you need to qualify exactly what is the comparison.
More popular then 2017 (a down year)? It certainly can be
More popular then 2015/16 or Brock/GSP heyday? Hard to guess. In 2014 nobody expected UFC to rebound like that.

As far as "go down", that reads as if you mean implode & it would take a huge disaster/scandal of proportions we never thought of to occur.
They made $300+m in EBITDA in a down year (interest) & went up in value.

 

[Sakuraba7]

Why do MMA Fans always want the UFC to fail? I'm guessing it's the fans that haven't been around that long. I'd rather have MMA on every weekend vs once every two months.

Financially the UFC is doing fine and is in nowhere near the pickle they were in the early 2000's. The UFC has established itself as a brand that is not going anywhere.

Pride was awesome, but it sucked having the talent split up all over the place. Once the UFC Absorbed Pride, Strikeforce, Affliction, WEC, IFL, and WFA we got to see all of the top guys fighting each other.

Just look at boxing's business model. Most of the time we are not getting the fights we want to see. This isn't pro wrestling where competition will always make the other league better (WWF vs WCW)

If the MMA organizations would have remained split up we would never have got to see...

Wand Chuck
Brock Overeem
Nog Mir
Shogun Machida
Werdum Cain
Shogun Liddel
Bigfoot Hunt
Barnet Arlovski
Rothwell Shuab
Hunt Mir
Shogun Forest
Wand Brian Stann
Hendo Anderson Silva
Cerrone Lawler
Rampage Jon Jones
Cormier Jones
Shogun Jones
Nog Couture
Condit GSP
Frankie Edgar Benson Henderson
Cowboy Diaz
Cro Cop Gonzaga
Hendo Bisping
Edgar Aldo


And many more fights that would have never happened.

You sure its "new" fans that just want to see it fail? Are we pretending like there weren't millions of people who watched PRIDE, Strikeforce and other orgs? I always saw UFC as the B league to PRIDE's A league.

And you say "talent split up all over the place" as if that isn't already the case with fighters in ACB, FNG and overseas promotions? These are promotions that BREED fighters, UFC doesn't grow fighters on trees you know, it signs guys from other orgs.

UFC barely had much international talent when PRIDE was on top until it bought out those contracts, but it still lacked the heavyweight division which then moved to Affliction and Strikeforce. UFC bought out the BW/FW talent from WEC. But while those carpets were swept up, other promotions have taken their place churning out new and unexplored talent from new and unexplored regions.

You didn't see fighters in one spot because the UFC hated co-promotions –except that one tournament in PRIDE where Chuck Liddel got destroyed by Rampage; that wasn't a problem for Strikeforce or M-1 or PRIDE or K-1 who were open to cross-promoting. DREAM and SENGOKU did cross-promotions, PRIDE and K-1 did it, Strikeforce and M-1 did it. UFC didn't want to.

That's no justification for a monopoly like you allude to; competition is good for the consumer. Your idea that there being 1 major org means ALL the best fighters are in it, is delusion. It just means there's a whole world of fighters you don't know exists because 1 promotion can't possibly house them all.

 

[rorschach51]

Their viewership overseas is nearing its peak, and will have reached it by 2020. Other promotions are huge overseas now. You have ONE in Southeast Asia; RIZIN in Japan and another promotion could break out by then; 4 major promotions in Russia and Central-Asia (M-1, ACB, FNG, WFCA) with dozens of smaller orgs throughout the Eastern Bloc. China is dominated by Kunlun and WLF.

And you're crazy calling it the 2nd most internationally recognized sport. As far as participation? Boxing and wrestling have just as many nations participating, if not more. Actually yes, its more. In terms of population count in its following, Rugby and Cricket are both bigger than MMA. You have 2 billion people who follow Cricket.

KSW is pretty big too is it not?