1) i don't see how belfort gets the TUE for TRT; 2) belfort always was susceptible to getting wrestlefucked; 3) weidman's standup is better than most people think; 4) weidman finishes belfort and retires him.
His standup is certainly sufficient to allow him to transition to a ground game that can beat Belfort. Weidman will have the wheel kicks telegraphed pretty well on a full camp and sub or decision him. Belfort has a puncher's/sub chance, but won't happen. He won't retire though, he's still fighting well and can make some good money with marquee fights. My guess if he loses that he'll start picking a fight with Chael.
There is no proof whatsoever that Vitor cannot get an exemption outside of Brazil. A few months back Keith Kizer gave his opinion that he didn't think Belfort would be able to get an exemption in Las Vegas, but Kizer is not involved in the decision making process. And Vegas is not the only place in the U.S. the fight can take place. Also, Belfort fought Jones in Canada on TRT.
Vitor would finish him. IMO.
Weidman via what Anthony Johnson was doing before those ridiculously quick stand-ups, and Rumble gassing due to failed weight cut.
Basically a complicated way of saying Weidman via grappling and tiring Vitor out so his stand up is less explosive.