War Room OT Discussion

[Jack V Savage]

Line is still at -140 which seems right where it should be. How much do think it's going to move?

Don't know. But I think if you're interested in taking JDS, you should wait, and if you want Stipe, you should get on it.

Side note: I started watching the line moves thanks to a HW troll. He claimed to be the world's greatest sports handicapper, and said he normally gets paid six figures per event, but he'd give Sherdog one free pick per event. He did like five in a row (getting them all right, including a couple of underdogs) before getting banned. I checked his history when he started his first thread and noted that not much earlier, he asked if there was a way to bet on fights online. Then he asked about how to track line moves. I noticed that he was picking guys that late money was pouring in on (the one who got the most late action was his "pick of the month" or whatever). This wouldn't count as late, of course, but some line moves are interesting. Apparently, it was two huge bets that put Stipe into major book liability territory.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Don't know. But I think if you're interested in taking JDS, you should wait, and if you want Stipe, you should get on it.

Side note: I started watching the line moves thanks to a HW troll. He claimed to be the world's greatest sports handicapper, and said he normally gets paid six figures per event, but he'd give Sherdog one free pick per event. He did like five in a row (getting them all right, including a couple of underdogs) before getting banned. I checked his history when he started his first thread and noted that not much earlier, he asked if there was a way to bet on fights online. Then he asked about how to track line moves. I noticed that he was picking guys that late money was pouring in on (the one who got the most late action was his "pick of the month" or whatever). This wouldn't count as late, of course, but some line moves are interesting. Apparently, it was two huge bets that put Stipe into major book liability territory.

I put down on Stipe at -175 earlier in the month and I thought the money was coming on JDS but not at ridiculous rate.

Your news just piqued my interest that much more.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Yay -- tonight is the night and only one fight got cancelled!!

May your dinners be delicious and the fights be vicious!

 

[Jack V Savage]

Yay -- tonight is the night and only one fight got cancelled!!

May your dinners be delicious and the fights be vicious!

Final picks? I'm nervous because I got four underdogs. High uncertainty in all of the fights, though. Great card.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Final picks? I'm nervous because I got four underdogs. High uncertainty in all of the fights, though. Great card.

Lays small bets on:

Stipe
Andrade (not sure how to handicap this fight)
Yair

Didn't bet on the last two -- didn't like the Maia line but im going with him

 

[Jack V Savage]

Lays small bets on:

Stipe
Andrade (not sure how to handicap this fight)
Yair

Didn't bet on the last two -- didn't like the Maia line but im going with him

I have a medium-small bet on Yair and then really small ones (just for fun) on the other Underdogs (JDS, Andrade, and Maia).

 

[The Diplomat]

So I just found out that my landlord (who lives directly behind me and has wanted my help fixing his house up in the past year and a half) is an international extortionist, defrauder, sexual deviant and is wanted in Thailand and here for multiple things. He's on an FBI watchlist.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I have a medium-small bet on Yair and then really small ones (just for fun) on the other Underdogs (JDS, Andrade, and Maia).

You got Maia as an underdog? I've read him as favorite on Most sites. Definitely would've bet had I saw him as an underdog

 

[Jack V Savage]

You got Maia as an underdog? I've read him as favorite on Most sites. Definitely would've bet had I saw him as an underdog

Got him at +105 on Bovada. Just checked, and Bovada is showing -135 now. Interesting. Looks like I fucked up a little (maybe should have bet more).

 

[The Diplomat]

Maia will beat Masvidal.

 

[Fawlty]

Got him at +105 on Bovada. Just checked, and Bovada is showing -135 now. Interesting. Looks like I fucked up a little (maybe should have bet more).

I thought that one was due a...correction (correction should be said menacingly, with a rolling 'r')

 

[Lead]

So I just found out that my landlord (who lives directly behind me and has wanted my help fixing his house up in the past year and a half) is an international extortionist, defrauder, sexual deviant and is wanted in Thailand and here for multiple things. He's on an FBI watchlist.

One of my biggest fears is having a bad landlord. Right now I'm good and I hope to get a house once I end this lease

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Welp, Frankie had the answer, damn

The dude has way more miles in him

 

[Fawlty]

Welp, Frankie had the answer, damn

The dude has way more miles in him

That was the tits, what a performance.

Also Maia barely squeaked that one out.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

That was the tits, what a performance.

Also Maia barely squeaked that one out.

Agreed, Frankie was the big brother in that fight even though he was the smaller guy.

And Maia barely won but showed a shit load of tenacity to stick to the plan while eating some hard shots.

I don't think his style is going to work too well against Woodley.

 

[Fawlty]

Agreed, Frankie was the big brother in that fight even though he was the smaller guy.

And Maia barely won but showed a shit load of tenacity to stick to the plan while eating some hard shots.

I don't think his style is going to work too well against Woodley.

Yair just realized like Frankie said "There are levels to this game"

Yeah Woodley is going to embarrass him.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Fuck, why the hell has no coach drilled the hell out training JDS not to put his hands down and walk back into the fence....JDS to Jackson or Kings please

 

[The Diplomat]

Good night of fights.

All of you guys suck.

No wait, that's the WR mentality telling me to argue with strangers.

You guys are cool.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Welp, Frankie had the answer, damn

The dude has way more miles in him

Man, I was studying their fights and comparing their striking games to land on my pick, and it turned out to be a total waste. Frankie was great, but I do think part of it was bad decision-making by Rodriguez. Seemed like he thought he could play a guard game there, while he should have been desperate to get up (that's not just hindsight--we knew going in how each guy was gonna win). Yair's still very young and very talented, and I still think he's going to be elite, but my takeaway from that fight was less "Frankie still has it" than "Rodriguez isn't as close to the top as I thought he was."

Fuck, why the hell has no coach drilled the hell out training JDS not to put his hands down and walk back into the fence....JDS to Jackson or Kings please

But what about the Rothwell fight?! I thought he was brilliant in that fight and specifically addressed that issue. Really looked like he was aware that he had a problem and worked hard to fix it. And then total regression.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Man, I was studying their fights and comparing their striking games to land on my pick, and it turned out to be a total waste. Frankie was great, but I do think part of it was bad decision-making by Rodriguez. Seemed like he thought he could play a guard game there, while he should have been desperate to get up (that's not just hindsight--we knew going in how each guy was gonna win). Yair's still very young and very talented, and I still think he's going to be elite, but my takeaway from that fight was less "Frankie still has it" than "Rodriguez isn't as close to the top as I thought he was."

I was just more impress with Frankie still being able to stand well with an elite guy, even though we didnt get to see a huge sample of it -- he was still darting in quick and beating Yair to the punch. Also,Yair is a great scrambler and frankie stifled him at every turn-- just a top notch performance. Yair still has a great future, but he got a lesson last night

But what about the Rothwell fight?! I thought he was brilliant in that fight and specifically addressed that issue. Really looked like he was aware that he had a problem and worked hard to fix it. And then total regression.

Yeah, but Ben has limited footwork -- and is tailored made for JDS style. He could change angles quickly without having to move back because he thought Ben was too slow to cut him off or back him up He seems to absolutely hate guys who pressure back. But yeah, last night was particularly bad. He almost immediately started going straight back to the cage after getting tagged once. It was a bad performance, especially considering how much damage those two legs did--if he could've angled off to the side, reset and landed a few more of those, i think he would've made stipe a plodding mess....instead he just kept backing to the cage while trying to dodge punches to roll of the cage and reset -- and stipe caught him rather easily.

oh, well-- at least i recovered some money from losing on yair and andrade.