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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.
Search the event and skip to that fight. The cardio looked fine against Bochniak.
I sense a solid maths background and a great understanding of EV
Davis went down...Piechota+Morono maybe
Millender is coming off two headkick KOs in LFA.
This is utterly rediculous. You want 4/1 on what YOU have said is a 1/1 shot either side. Gtfo, You should be jumping on Yancy if that’s your true opinion on the fight.
Pretty sure has been said but if you wait for +400 odds for guys in what you think are coinflip fights, you really aren't ever gonna be betting anything.
LMAO at choosing your own child over betting.
I like ocho Peterson as the dog here. Took him +160 and +140. Fookin limits. (Broken record, I know).
He's scrappy as hell. Can hang on the feet and should have a good grappling edge if he can get it there. Davis' last performance left a sour taste in my mouth, too.
Also, being in Texas doesn't hurt Peterson's case either.
Millender is not that good. Unless Alves is completely done, he should be favored more over Millender. Millender didn't look very good before the headkick in his last fight.
I defo can see a case for Peterson due to his aggressive/scrappy nature but he will be smashed on the feet. Davis' standup is a whole different level to Peterson's let's block punches with my face approach.
You not worried about how easy/often he's is punched in the face
I think I have to agree
What do we know about Geoffrey Neal? Does this guy have 15 minutes of cardio?
Bit unknown. He did slow against Holland albeit that was up at MW. His only other loss was also in r3 but i've not seen that fight. However two r3 losses and he did slow against Holland as I've seen that fight are concerns. Brian for all his faults brings a high pace and won't gas.
I cap joby @1.4
Like oscar as well . Should take out Williams who isn't good and been fighting bums on this streak. His last win was fed to the worlds strongest man Poland. Oskar hit hard and Williams gonna walk into a counter. Bad matchup.
Not too impressed with mill either. Single shots. Alves the right side here. Small on this prob.
I definitely wouldn't say he gassed, but I did think he slowed down a bit late in the second/third round. Didn't have the same zip on his punches, etc.
My big concern here with Davis is that he's a sizeable 145er and this is going to be his second weight cut in a month. I'm expecting this to be a very high paced fight with both guys coming forward. I wanted to bet him smallish at -125 but I think I'm going to pass at this price.
Not concerned about the size difference? Petersen is a 135er and not a huge one at that, whereas Davis is a pretty big 145er. I expected Davis to open more in the -180 range, was very happy with -125. Bochniak's movement frustrated him, but Petersen will be more than happy to oblige in the pocket.
More comfortable with a big pre-bet on Davis now that this fight will have LB available. If Davis doesn't put him away early I, at the very least, expect him to take the 1st round comfortably, so I may hedge a bit if he appears to be slowing at all.
I've watched Peterson a ton on AXS, but I have a hard time capping that fight. It's more due to how Davis will look. You have Davis on short notice too. I may look to see what "Not David ITD" looks like. Peterson is not easy to put away.
Petersen definitely durable, but he has been facing a lot of smaller guys. Davis a big 145er and has power. Dropped Mutaski multiple times who is a 6'0 155er. Petersen so hittable I am not sure he can take Davis's shots, at least early.